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Palm Stinks Up Q4; No Big Deal (PALM)

/images/palm-centro.jpgPalm's Q4 was even worse than analysts' low expectations, and shares will probably drop Friday morning. (They're down 7.8% after hours, to $6.03, after losing another 4.4% during Thursday trading.)

But it doesn't really matter! Why not? Because Palm's long-term prospects are completely tied to top-secret phones running the top-secret, Linux-based mobile operating system it's working on -- which won't go on sale until next year. The number of Centros and Treos it sells between now and then will cause peaks and valleys in Palm's stock, but don't really represent the future value of the company.

Palm posted $296.2 million in Q4 revenue, down 26% year-over-year and just short of analysts' $301.1 million consensus. And adjusted EPS came in at a 22 cents per share loss, 4 cents below analysts' expectations. Smartphone sellthrough came in at a record 968,000 units, thanks in part to continued success with the Centro, Palm's cheapest smartphone ever -- and a margin buzzkill.

As expected, Palm isn't issuing formal Q1 guidance. CEO Ed Colligan said revenue would grow this quarter, but the company would still be unprofitable. The company expects margins to grow gradually over the course of fiscal 2009 as new Windows Mobile-based Treos go on sale.

Update: No news on new platform. Not surprising.

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