Analyst: Apple Selling So Many iPods Stores Are Running Out (AAPL)

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ipod silo.jpgWill a slowing economy and cannibalization from the iPhone ruin holiday sales for Apple's (AAPL) iPods? Nope, says Kaufman Bros analyst Shaw Wu.

Wu says the iPod is doing so well that retail outlets like Amazon (AMZN), Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT) are running out of current models. Unfortunately, he offers no details on how he arrives at this conclusion -- or at least Reuters doesn't.

(Only two of Amazon's top 20 iPods aren't in stock: The 8 GB and 16 GB iPod touch. Both of those models ship within 24 hours from Apple.com. Thanks to reader JB for pointing out that Amazon's iPod listings page includes third-party sources for its "in stock" indication.)

Reuters: Wu said stocks of certain iPod models have been harder to come by at Amazon.com, Best Buy, Target and Wal-Mart.

Wu says: “Frankly, we find these sell-outs on iPods surprising given how difficult the macroeconomic environment is, putting a crimp on consumer spending. From our assessment, we believe iPod is holding up better than most, due to its relatively low ASP (average selling price) and strong consumer understanding of the value it provides.”

Wu is predicting iPod sales to reach 21 million this quarter. That's below last year's sales of 22.1 million iPods sold (and Wu's own September prediction of 24 million) but above the Street's prediction of 18.6 million

In other words: Q4 iPod sales are going to be horrible relative to Wu's expectations only three months ago. But maybe not disastrous.

See Also:
Have Apple's iPod Sales Peaked?
Apple Mac Sales On Track, iPod Looking Better Than Expected
New Apple iPods Nice, But Wall Street In No Hurry To Jack Sales Forecasts



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15 Comments

JB said:
Henry, who is this Eric guy? Better teach him how to use the internet thingy. As I type this, if you want to buy an 8GB 2G iPod Touch from Amazon (and not one of its third party sellers), it won't ship until after Christmas.
mogilny said:
So there is absolutely no proof or inventory numbers. WOW. That's solid. I think I am going to buy some AAPL.
Ah, interesting, JB. Will drill down into more of those.
JB: Of the top 20 Amazon iPods, only two are back ordered, the 8 and 16-gig touches. Both ship within 24 hours from Apple. No reason for you to be so smug.

8 gb black nano - in stock
8 gb touch g2 - 3-5 weeks
120 gb black classic - in stock
8 gb blue nano - in stock
32 gb touch g2 - in stock
8 gb purple nano - in stock
8 gb silver nano - in stock
8 gb green nano - in stock
8 gb pink nano - in stock
16 gb touch g1 - in stock
120 gb silver classic - in stock
8 gb silver nano - in stock
16 gb touch g2 - 3-5 weeks
old nano n/a
16 gb black nano - in stock
1 gb silver shuffle - in stock
8 gb orange nano - in stock
16 gb silver nano - in stock
1 gb blue shuffle - in stock
1 gb pink shuffle - in stock
JB said:
Dan, I'm not sure what you base your claim of "smugness" on.

My reporting was factually correct (as confirmed by your later comment at 6:09 pm)

Therefore, Eric's reporting was not factually correct.

But I do see that Eric's reporting has now been altered as a result of my smugness.

(BTW -- Most blogs don't alter their reporting, they post updates below the report. That makes for better, more credible journalism.)
JB, you're making the assumption that Eric wrote the original sentence about Amazon's stock. Which he did not.

Amazon's iPod listing page (at the time) said each of its iPods were in stock. (Now it says the 8 GB touch will be in stock on Dec. 10.) Thank you for pointing out what Amazon's iPod listing page doesn't -- that "in stock" also includes some of its partners. We appreciate it, and have added more detail to the post.

But please re-read your original comment. I don't expect that's how you'd address us in person. (We sure wouldn't address you in person like that.) Thanks for paying such close attention, but we're on the same side here.
BTW, looking at some Walmart stock levels on the Web also shows that several stores are out of stock of some touches. But most have stock.
Wait, wait... The error was mine, not Eric's. I checked Amazon, saw that it said all in stock, and I didn't dig deeper. My error, not Eric's.

Thanks, JB, for correction.
ZAXZAN said:
Over to you Dan ...

-

I agree with JB's assertion.

Discovering that an article has been changed (for whatever reason) by reading the comments is annoying, as a percentage of the earlier comments make no sense at all, fortunately some readers often offer a supplementary insight and information on an article.

No one anyone is asking AI for nonpartisan articles ... Ha, well I am not, just a genuine chronicle of an article's history.

Changes to a report, need an update immediately below the report, this procedure allows readers to identify and discern the accuracy, objectivity and candor of the writer, editor and publisher, and this overt accountability points towards not only credible journalism; but reliable and trustworthy journalism.

I'm happy marking substantive changes and corrections (we often do it with an asterisk and an "update"). In this case, I think the change was ancillary to the point of the post, but if you disagree happy to mark it.

It does seem as though the standard practice in the industry these days (including NYT, WSJ, etc) is to just change the text with no mark whatsoever. I don't like this because it forces me to reread the whole article to see if anything new has been added. But that's a different issue than errors.

Again, though...please blame me for all of above.
ZAXZAXN said:
Ahhh ... It's like one big family.
ZAXZAN said:
... "I don't like this because it forces me to reread the whole article to see if anything new has been added ..."

Do you mean that something new has been added to the article, by your "coterie" or to the comments page?

If something new has been added to the article, by your team, then surely the correct place to put it would be at the end as an update, as this keeps everything in order and historically correct.

Standard practice ie. NYT, WSJ, etc in this case, just perpetuates an incorrect practice. Lead from the front.
@ZAXZAN: "NYT, WSJ, etc in this case, just perpetuates an incorrect practice." Couldn't agree more! My stance is if factual information changes an obvious updated should be added to the post - anywhere - to the top, bottom, or middle of it - doesn't matter. The key word is "obvious". SAI likes to use astericks for that; I prefer to write the word "Update" in bold, add the date and/or time of the update right after those words, then explain what changed.

The only time I ignore this rule is for non-factual statements in an otherwise factual post (for instance, I won't alert everyone that there's been an update just because I reworded something non-material to the story - as long as the facts haven't changed along with those words, who cares). The other exception I make is for personal writing. I'll re-write any post from top to bottom and never formally indicate that I "updated" the piece unless the facts changed with my rewrite.
mjw149 said:
I hate to get back on topic, but still... Does this indicate that the 'fattie' ipod nano was a disaster style-wise and ipod demand was artifically low last year? Isn't this a normal reaction to a new ipod design? So the ipod market wasn't saturated and wasn't substituting Iphones, it was just snoozing? Now there is a new, fun design, colors and sleekness again, so everyone's jumping back on the upgrade bandwagon.

Everyone agrees that Apple succeeds on design, and then seems to forget about that when it comes to analysis. Some designs are better than others. I'm one of the people that replaced the battery on my old nano rather than buy a fatty, even at $70 vs. $150. The fatty wasn't an upgrade in my mind, because Steve Jobs was right: I don't want video on a 2-inch screen. And smaller is usually better for portable products.

Or is this just another sign that people will still spend on their children in a recession? Ipods, videogames and animated movies.
Henry, you are a class act.

(Not to detract from the above sentiment, but I can't help but add that... Spitzer is NOT and never was a class act.)

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