Zuckerberg: Facebook Will Have A Business Plan In Three Years

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zuckerberg.jpgIf you've had a nagging suspicion that Mark Zuckerberg really doesn't know how he'll turn Facebook into a business, wonder no more. You're right. Here he is talking to German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:

What every great internet company has done is to figure out a way to make money that has to match to what they are doing on the site. I don't think social networks can be monetized in the same way that search did. But on both sites people find information valuable. I'm pretty sure that we will find an analogous business model. But we are experimenting already. One group is very focused on targeting; another part is focused on social recommendation from your friends. In three years from now we have to figure out what the optimum model is. But that is not our primary focus today.

If you're counting, three years from now would be nearly 7 years since Mark (and others) started Facebook at Harvard, and four years since Microsoft plowed $240 million into the company.

We know the retort here: What about Google? They didn't figure out money for years, and look at them now! And we think that's a reasonable answer -- if you really think Facebook will end up as a Google-sized business. But if Facebook ends up being something less than that -- say, a big and popular Website, but not a world-changing business that throws off billions a dollars a year and disrupts multiple industries -- then Mark's backers may end up wondering why they didn't push him to figure that sooner than later.

We do wonder a tiny bit about translation issues here -- in parts of the Q&A, Mark sounds a little Col. Klink-like -- so we're hoping people get a chance to go over this with him again tomorrow at the Future of Web Apps conference in London. In the meantime, though, take some time to read the German paper's interview with him, which from what we can tell is one of the more informative Q&As he's done. A few more highlights:

FAZ: Can you please describe your cooperation with Sheryl Sandberg?

Mark Zuckerberg: She is an excellent manager. She is very good in building our international organization. I'm focused on the direction of the company, especially of the product development, and the overall strategy. I spend a lot of time working with engineers and product developers. We work together hand in hand.

FAZ: Who is the boss?

Mark Zuckerberg: Me!

....

 



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43 Comments

Hehateme said:
I only joined because a hot girl wanted me to join. The next thing i know shes sending me Fluff Friends by the ton. So i stop using facebook. And oh i never saw a relevant ad. Zuck is a Punk.

Andrew Finkle (URL) said:
I work in the Social Media space, and I have to confess, I still don't get Facebook - People throw sheep and things at me. Having said that, it is clear to me what Facebook will ultimately do for their business model, even if they do not get it yet themselves (Link to monetizing Facebook below).

http://bit.ly/35P4cc

www.twitter.com/A_F

geewhiz said:
With a serious recession coming Facebook doesn't have 3 years to keep the excitement, capital and morale going without a business model. They are at risk for a down round which is precisely why I think so many are jumping ship *before* their liquidity event --- unusual when things are going well.

Frank D said:
"FAZ: The market share of Microsoft in the German search market is 1 or 2 percent. They would be thankful for any help.

Mark Zuckerberg: Yes, but we can consider to work with someone else in other countries. "

Ouch!

Tony Robbs (URL) said:
Facebook already has changed the media landscape. Keeping the high quality experience should be the goal. Myspace lost sight of that, which is why FB is so popular now. They'll figure it out - huge potential to target behaviorally, which = valuable inventory.

Facebook Insider said:
I love the quote on Sheryl is she going to be stripped of her COO role and turned into heading up international only. Everyone is praying for that here at Facebook.

I can see her now walking around the office looking at her shoes as she sways back and forth "I'm an excellent manager...I'm an excellent manager...I'm an excellent manager...I'm an excellent manager"

Right out of a scene from Rain Man..

Andrew said:
Comparing Facebook to Google does not make sense because using Google has always been about people searching for things. Naturally, it's profitable to connect people who sell those things to those people searching for them. Facebook is nothing near that direct, indicates no "intentionality" on the part of the user other than to "connect with friends," and probably will need at least a few years to figure out a halfway legit business model. In that sense, the nonchalant approach by Zuck could almost be construed as mature. Key word, almost.

Mike said:
> FAZ: Who is the boss?
> Mark Zuckerberg: Me!

Hahhahaha... anyone believe this?! If he really is a boss, no wonder FB is gonna be in so much trouble!

momo said:
If people are concerned about privacy, they might look a little harder at FB. Given that FB's major stakeholder is a neocon, and FB just hired former Attorney General Gonzale's chief of staff as a VP, I suspect people concerned about their privacy will be leaving in droves.

Suckerberg is An Ass said:
Damn, I really dislike Suckerberg, he is such a smug asshole. I want to drink his milkshake and bitch slap him.

dwight said:
it's not a google scale business for sure.

3 years is too long, but they have some time, they are still getting nice traffic growth.

Ryan said:
The reality is that even if Facebook becomes a Yahoo sized business, it's still only a Yahoo sized business. And it's not even close yet...

yahoo said:
"The reality is that even if Facebook becomes a Yahoo sized business, it's still only a Yahoo sized business. And it's not even close yet... "

This is rich..outside of Google, can you tell me any other company that monetizes online media to the extent that Yahoo does? For all the crap that is thrown at Yahoo (justified to some extent), it is still a pretty big sized dollar generating entity. A mature one, but a profitable one as well.

Internet Expert said:
I love anonymous comment sections, where everyone can come on and give their expert opinions without basis!

F Zuckerberg said:
@ Suckerberg is An Ass

I agree. I would never even visit a Facebook page because I hate that smug prick.

He is a complete charlatan. He was in the right place, right time - and not only that he ripped off a bunch of people at Harvard to get there.

It's absolutely amazing people treat him as some kind of visionary and compare Facebook to Google. ummm, not quite. try comparing facebook to Altavista instead...

What a loser. F him...

Ben Fremer (URL) said:
This is a very good and insightful report. Thank you.

dave mcclure (URL) said:
i continue to be astonished at how many people want to pile on Facebook and claim they're about to go belly up.

sure, they haven't figured out monetization yet -- um, yeah i wrote that post almost a year ago: http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/01/facebooks-real.html -- but then again, how many people can say they built a top 10 global internet site in just a few years that's generating hundreds of millions in revenue annually?

except for the last round of investors (and Microsoft shouldn't really count, since they were buying a seat at the Web 2.0 table, not just shares), most people holding FB preferred stock are Pretty F'ing Happy Campers, and employees hired before the last round have common stock that is very much in the money.

don't have a business plan? well, ok... selling hundreds of millions of display ads on crappy inventory probably isn't an AWESOME plan, but it doesn't suck that bad either.

sorry, mark's right & you're not. they've got some time to figure it out. when they stop growing, then they need to flip the switch on revenue optimization.

if they don't find a way to be generating quite a bit of free cash flow in the next few years, count me as surprised.

jason@tinycrunch (URL) said:
Oh Zuck, college dreams always come to an end. Your has just come a little later than the rest. Throught the recession you will always have your users, but when it ends, you still wont be able to count on the revenue. Not with 600 employees and that enormise burn rate!

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Jaime (URL) said:
I never understood why everyone was all hyped up about FaceBook until I realized everyone was tired of Myspace. Well for all you social networking lovers look out for Jiggie.com. Coming to a PC near you......

Julian (URL) said:
I'm glad Mark is smiling, he won't be for long. The new wave of social networks are here, and it's name is ZenZuu. Why do I say this, because the members have a stake in the network, an 80% stake. No need to wait for a business plan, they have one and are going to unleash it like gang busters on the world. The time is right, a global recession and greed everywhere we look. The big guys won't be thinking of a business plan before long, they will just be wondering how to compete.

geewhiz said:
Earth to Dave McClure: Facebook is doing well but it's a FAD. The Internet is littered with sites that were once widely used. My bet is that all these senior execs are leaving BEFORE the liquidation event because they know what we're saying is true.

TV1Turtle (URL) said:
Oh great, if they have a business plan NOW it will take 3 years to implement it...but it will take 3 years TO come up with business plan?

Sometimes I wonder if start-ups w/o business plan just live off VC's cash and don't care what happen afterward and then start another one live off cash again and so on.

Thanks for the reflection.

TV1Turtle

Robert said:
In three years, Facebook will be "so 2006" and replaced by something else that actually has value and a real business model out the gate.

Facebook is such a waste of resources. I'm surprised it hasn't been replaced already.

somerandomnerd (URL) said:
yeah, Facebook will never work, because people are throwing sheep at me.

Likewise, Internet advertising will never work, because I saw a pop up once in 1998, and it was annoying. PCs will never become popular, because people don't want their office machine in their home. And who needs a mobile phone, other than Wall Street investors who can't bear to miss market news while playing golf, circa 1989?

Get with the programme guys. If your mobile phone ran out of battery, it didn't mean mobile would never make anyone money. If your email address is flooded with spam, it doesn't mean email is dead. And if your Facebook friends still have nothing better to do than throw sheep/play zombie games/use pointless applications... well, it's not necessarily a problem with Facebook...

Users aren't looking for a business plan- they are looking for ways to communicate with their friends. Same as they always did, same as they always will.

I dont know who is the boss for facebook, but i kow one thing that Mark is not boss over there. He might be smart but that doesn't make him boss.

Im digging the new look of FB. :D


Volker Detering (URL) said:
Psychologically, it's very bad for a business to have no business model. It's like being undead - you "live", but not really.
Even if they eventuall have a business model, the real challenge is coming after its miraculous arrival. It needs to be constantly adjusted, re-invented, and the product needs to be customized for those who pay. This means the 3 years until the model is there are essentially wasted time.
Of course it's possible that facebook will eventually evolve as a real business, and I wish them well. I like the site, and I use it daily.

Wallz said:
ehh connectu idea stealing ppl. i'll monetize facebook ninja style ';'

Techsoomer (URL) said:
It's the battle between money and power (size). Who ultimately wins in the end.

http://www.techsoomer.com/2008/10/is-money-power-myspace-vs-facebook/

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CHARLES JONES (URL) said:
To show some value Facebook needs to stop the augmented and broken "Are You Interested" connectivity, it is full of spam opportunities as also the message database. Clicking 'Yes' or 'No' on people does not impress me at all, it might as well be choice of vehicle conversions where consumer's interact to learn more necessary details so they can make a choice. I also do not see how group making of a city/county/state could be a reasoning for pricing membership fees. If Facebook does startup a pricing scheme I will quite showing pictures of things I believe most important to the city I am in on my group and relating to the tornado we had here. All the other crap Facebook offers is ridiculous and I am not interested in their apps since if you click on one to get it to work it leads you to start a app yourself and I do not call that a app I call it a widget with the same recourse of clicking action. I do not believe in spam and would question the idea for Facebook to go into the charging fee business, cutbacks such as both of those leaves barebone widget pages and that is hardly enough to claim it can topple MySpace or Google or Yahoo with its biased operations to show everyone the message you click to send a person from a message they post etc. is bad politics, charging for that is illegal math and can only destine lawsuits against Facebook operations online to shut it down which should have been the case not to open it up cause of Yahoo, MySpace and Google. I might also mention that Bravenet offers free webspace for a website that is free with addons such as a Guestbook and a free blog which is Google based and using Google login works, plus much more and soon more things so if anyone is a Facebook member I suggest you quite as soon as possible. Oh, I forgot YouTube, this is the most important video share online and is supporting any website with a video interactive feature that allows folks to play a video without leaving a website it has been added to. Facebook is nothing like ImageShack which has no interactive feature, nor is Photobucket each deny access to links they offer to show but not download pictures. Hi5 which works with a Yahoo ID is even better than Facebook. ICQ has a much broader feel to it and is better than Facebook.

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The problem I see with FB is that it seems their income will never catch up with the costs they are dealing with.

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