Citi Whacks Estimates On Dell, HP, PC Industry

A lousy economy means a smaller market for PCs this year and next year, which prompted Citi analyst Richard Gardner to trim his growth estimates for HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) today. Gardner now thinks the PC industry will grow unit shipments 13% this year, down from his previous estimate of 15%; and 5% next year, down from his previous estimate of 10%-12%.

Because of that, the recent strengthening of the dollar, corporate job loss, decelerating global GDP growth, and declining disposable income, Gardner made the following cuts:

HP:

• 4FQ08 from $34.3B and $1.01 to $33.4B and $1.01
• FY09 from $145.0B and $4.35 to $138.0B and $4.16
• FY10 from $153.5B and $5.02 to $142.6B and $4.75

Dell:

• 4FQ09 from $17.0B and $0.39 to $16.9B and $0.39
• FY10 from $69.5B and $1.66 to $65.7B and $1.58
• FY11 from $73.2B and $1.87 to $68.3B and $1.74

Last week, Gardner sharply sliced his estimates for Apple (AAPL), predicting the iPod business could shrink next year, and that Mac growth would slow to 2% year-over-year unit growth, down from his previous estimate of 15% growth.

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