Blogger Smackdown: Who Got Apple's Laptop News Wrong? Everyone Except John Gruber, Says John Gruber
We thought that at this point, everyone understands: The blogosphere isn't 100% reliable, especially when it comes to Apple-related news. Some combination of intense fanboy and investor interest, mixed with Apple's secrecy fetish means that the Web is riddled with erroneous (thanks catching that, John!) predictions about Steve Jobs' next move. And that reaches a frenzy in advance of each Apple product presentation.
That's not good enough for Daring Fireball's John Gruber, who makes a point of calling out most of the Web for participating in the mass delusion that Apple would introduce a line of cheapish laptops yesterday. And getting most everything else wrong, as well.
Somehow we escaped his wrath, but perhaps that's because we made a point of noting that John himself got almost everything right in a post he put up a couple hours before Jobs' presentation. The main target for John's derision is former Techcrunch blogger Duncan Riley, who made the initial $800 laptop call. Left unscathed: Non-blogger Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffray analyst who predicted an $899 machine.
So let's see what John does with this Gizmodo post, which predicts that Steve Jobs will leave Apple -- "not tomorrow, but probably very soon." The reasoning? Steve let a lot of his lieutenants get a lot of stage time yesterday -- COO Tim Cook, design guru Jony Ive, etc. -- which is supposed to signal that he does indeed have a succession plan. Maybe. Or maybe Jobs just didn't want to spend much time on stage when Apple didn't have a lot to talk about -- this was a modest product refresh, and not much more.
See Also: Apple Rumor Roundup: $800 Laptop, Blu-ray, Space-Age Factory?
Apple Pundit: Everyone Is Wrong: No Cheap Laptop Coming




Seriously, Pete. You're way off the mark here.
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2008/10/15/prediction-problems
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/8/music-subscriptions-coming-to-itunes-aapl-next-month-nope
As I said, there's a lot of it out there, so it can get tiring. But god bless JB for playing whack-a-mole.
At Gizmodo, Jesus Diaz posits that Jobs is preparing to leave the company, “probably very soon”.
I’d say no. Having Tim Cook and Jony Ive on stage with him was certainly different, and it may well be part of grooming both of them to take bigger public roles. It was also a good way to inspire investor confidence. But it’s hardly unprecedented for Jobs to act more as MC than showman during an event. He played an even smaller role in the keynote at WWDC 2006 when Leopard was introduced; most of the demos were presented by Phil Schiller and Scott Forstall. Diaz writes:
[Jobs] was saying: “Hey, look, Apple is more than Steve. These are The Guys, the Goodfellas, the A-Team. They share the same vision I have. And they are going to push the company forward when I change my office chair for a hammock and caipirinhas on my private beach in Hawaii”.
I think he’s right that Jobs is proud of, and has tremendous faith in, Cook and Ive. If Jobs dies or gets really sick, Apple’s obviously going to have to replace him. But so long as he’s healthy, working at Apple is exactly the thing Jobs wants to do. He’s consumed by his work, and I think it’s only in the last two or three years that Apple has gotten to the point where Jobs feels he has a decent set of crayons at his disposal. In Jobs’s mind, the iPhone is only the beginning of what a truly flourishing Apple can produce. Why would he leave now? “A hammock and caipirinhas on a private beach” would be living hell for Steve Jobs.
There's a huge difference between "I think Apple should do this" and "I've heard from reliable source that Apple will do this".
And I think it's fine to be ridiculed if you say with confidence ("EXCLUSIVE") that your sources say something will happen and it is wrong. Reputation is the only check and balance system there really is on the internet.
Inquisitr's reputation took a hit yesterday. That's how it works. They got a lot of traffic from the original report. Some of it will stick. But now they have to suffer the consequences of a report that was so clearly wrong.
Otherwise, sites would just make stuff up on a daily basis. This is the risk of reports from unproven websites -- they have nothing to lose.
arn
Steve's type of cancer doesn't have a long life expectancy.
He may live for decades, as may anyone who suffers from cancer. But the likelihood is not like that.
Steve is doing the right thing by Apple, and the right thing generally by letting everyone know that there is more to Apple than him alone.
Sure, Steve's influence could never be imparted by anyone else but Steve.
But I hope and believe that his way of doing things has shown the people at Apple that it is the right way. And by now there are a stack of people who've worked with Steve 24 / 7 and know how he thinks.
It would be like getting a legendary coach, the coach may not stay forever and it would be better if they could stay forever, but if that is not possible then passing on the culture is the next best thing.
I really don't think it's all that cool to speculate on Steve's passing. Everyone who wants to know the score has enough information and every year he puts into Apple is a year that Apple will be better off.
One less reader for you guys, but I'm sure you don't mind, since you need mega-numbers to eek out a living on the Google Ad Display living that your business model.
Here, here. There's a humanity factor to consider, and it's insufficient to use "responsibility to the stockholders" as an excuse. Clearly, Steve is striving to leave Apple on a good footing when he has left the company (however and whenever it is he does so). THAT is all the stockholders have a right to. They do not have a right to a promise that he will live forever, or that he knows the date of his demise. First one who can fulfill those qualifications himself gets to throw the first stone.