Analyst: Two Million Would-Be PS3 Owners Will Buy a Wii Instead This Year

Is the dismal holiday performance of Sony's (SNE) PS3 and blowout sales of Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii indicative of how the two consoles will do over the next year? Cowen and Company's Doug Creutz thinks so, lowering his future estimates of PS3 sales and boosting his Wii predictions.

Doug's revised estimates:

Sony will sell about 4 million PS3s in 2009, down from previous projections of 6.25 million units sold. Fewer PS3 sales in 2010 too, now projecting 4.5 million units sold vs 6.5 million previously.
Wii picks up the slack: 8 million consoles to be sold in 2009 vs 6 million previous. More in 2010 too: 6 million vs old estimates of 4 million.
Little change to Microsoft's Xbox 360: Estimates fairly steady, Doug sees 4.25 million this year, and another 4 million in 2010.

The interesting thing is Doug sees total console sales fairly flat -- it's just Nintendo is grabbing more customers that otherwise would have been Sony's.

So much for the idea that the Xbox and PS3 aren't in competition with Nintendo.

Analyst: Two Million Would-Be PS3 Owners Will Buy A Wii Instead This Year