Apple Estimates Trimmed By AmTech: Shift Toward Cheaper Macs (AAPL)

Dan Frommer | September 12, 2008 10:20 AM

steve-jobs-macbook-air.jpgNot even Apple (AAPL) is immune to a downturn: AmTech's Shaw Wu says he's cutting his September quarter, December quarter, and 2009 revenue and EPS estimates, for three main reasons:

  • People buying cheaper Macs: "...it appears that more affluent consumers may be feeling the effects of a tighter credit environment." Specifically, sales and build plans of the MacBook Air "appear more modest." (Yet another reason to think Apple might significantly lower Mac laptop prices.)
  • Industry "likely to aim for lean inventory" during slower macro conditions.
  • Supply chain checks offer "low visibility in the December and March quarters, which we believe will likely impact build plans."

Wu trimmed his September and December quarter revenue estimates by about $100 million each, and fiscal 2009 by about half a billion dollars. But he's still above consensus: This quarter, for example, he thinks Apple will post $1.19 of EPS on $8.2 billion of sales, better than the Street's consensus of $1.12 EPS on $8.1 billion of sales.

"We continue to believe that MacBook Pro and MacBook are due for refreshes with more radical redesigns, likely at a special event later this fall. In addition, we are picking up that MacBook Air could see a minor refresh and potential price cut to increase its value proposition as build plans have slowed from earlier robust levels as customers have opted for MacBook or MacBook Pro instead."

Wu also whacked Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) estimates, citing the same "low visibility" into supply chain and "lean inventory" concerns.

Apple is down 2.9% to $148.22.

See Also:
Where Are The New Macs? Wait A Month
Apple's iTunes HD Brain Teaser: More Files Or More Work?
New Apple iPods Nice, But Wall Street In No Hurry To Jack Sales Forecasts
Apple's Holiday iPod Story: Same As Last Year

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