Microsoft and Yahoo Really Do Hate Each Other...Bring on the Shareholder Meeting*

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ballmerhands.jpgKara Swisher reveals the details of the latest Microsoft/Icahn Yahoo restructuring proposal, the one that Yahoo rejected on Saturday. Here they are:

  • Microsoft bribes Yahoo's shareholders with some cash, and cherrypicks the part of Yahoo it wants.
  • Microsoft and Carl Icahn sell off those Asian assets and Carl Icahn pays himself a "special dividend."
  • Carl Icahn gets control of the rest of the wreckage and sells it to the highest bidder.

And Yahoo rejected this? What's wrong with them? (Actual details below if you're really interested. We aren't).

The real story here, though, is how much Yahoo and Microsoft really do hate each other. If Microsoft's version on the "24-hour deadline" that Yahoo ridiculed in its press release is accurate, Yahoo is now distorting the truth, too:

Microsoft sources consider the [deadline] much less dramatic that that... Ballmer, source close to both Yahoo and Microsoft said, did express being tired of the endless loop Yahoo and Microsoft were caught in and said that he did not want prolonged negotiations to go on.

But, said Microsoft sources, that it was not said as an ultimatum, but more of an expression of weariness at a new round of tedious back-and-forth. “This has just gotten impossible,” said one Microsoft source. “We just wanted to have talks that went somewhere.”

When pressed, some sources close to Yahoo do confirm that they talked extensively to Icahn and then Microsoft. The 24-hour number came about because Ballmer asked Bostock to get back to him the next day, but that it was not exactly what one would call a threat.

No, it isn't. But Yahoo went ahead and portrayed it exactly that way.

Many people assume that all of this horse-trading is just a prelude to Microsoft swooping in at the last moment and buying Yahoo. Unless Yahoo's shareholders fire Jerry and the board, we doubt it (and if they do, we doubt Microsoft's offer price will be anything shareholders really want). Based on this latest back-and-forth, Microsoft and Yahoo really do hate each other, and it's hard to see how a "friendly" deal between the two companies will ever come about.

So, bring on the shareholder meeting...

ACTUAL DETAILS OF MICROSOFT OFFER, Per Kara Swisher (Our comments in blue)

– $1 billion for the search business and a five-year guarantee of $2.3 billion in search ad revenue, with an option to renew it another five years at a $1.6 billion minimum;* [We initially misunderstood this deal: We thought it meant $4 billion of revenue over 10 years, which would have been de minimus. It's actually $2.3 billion per year for five years, which is worth considering, given that Yahoo's share of the search market will gradually head for zero. According to Icahn's press release, however, this guarantee is contingent on traffic, which makes it meaningless.]

– An offer by Microsoft to buy $3.9 billion of Yahoo shares, and loan the company $2.8 billion at a five percent interest rate, by taking over a part of its debt. The money would be used to give a special dividend to shareholders; [Again, yawn. Just a bribe for short-term traders]

– An agreement to raise the TAC rate (a payout to Yahoo on each search query) to 85 percent from its former offer of 70 percent, for three years, and to 75 percent after that; [Big yawn. 75% is way below what Google pays its big partners.]

– A plan, unclear as to specifics, to spin off Yahoo’s Asian assets, with money going to shareholders; [Specifics important. And Yahoo doesn't need Microsoft to do this.]

– And, last of all and the obvious dealbreaker, Icahn would get control of the rest of the company, which includes the massive content and communications assets. Apparently, one or two current Yahoo board members could possibly stay on. Presumably, Icahn could then strike a deal to merge those with assets of News Corp.’s MySpace or Time Warner’s AOL. [Maybe, but not necessarily at a price that makes this whole thing a smart move for Yahoo shareholders. And, yes, it's an obvious deal-killer.]

We're sick of all this. If Microsoft wants to put an offer to buy the whole company on the table, we'll listen. Otherwise, we can't wait until the shareholder meeting puts an end to this whole sad saga.

See Also: Yahoo Smart to Reject Latest Microsoft/Icahn Offer, Which Was Just a Proxy Ploy



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18 Comments

GMAN said:
I am getting tired of reading this crap! I can't believe this BS. I think MSFT loves this crap, and so does Carl. Yahoo needs to get there shit together and starting thinking "Change of plans". I think Jerry needs to regroup and have his meeting in August and tell the board we are going forward! Forget MSFT and tell them to Go to Hell! And tell Carl, to shut up, sit back and drink a coke!!

Scott Johnson said:
Anyone know what percentage of Yahoo! search users that ONLY use search? I would think a large percentage of Y users go to Y finance, OMG, or somewhere else on a regular basis.

Henry, is this plan saying that the Yahoo front page would end up being Google-like? Just a search function?

or would the media divisions still be on the Y front page, even though those would be owned by someone like News Corp?

zhiyi said:
Calm down a bit first, Blodget. You misunderstood the search deal. From WSJ:

"...upping its revenue guarantees to $2.3 billion a year for five years..."

Scott, thanks. It wouldn't be a separate site. Microsoft would just be buying all of Yahoo's search technology (Panama), along with a contract to serve Yahoo's search results in perpetuity.

Kind of like when Inktomi used to do it for yhoo before yhoo bought it.

Exactly. Ahh, zhlyl, sorry--you're right. Kara's note wasn't clear. $2.3 billion a year is much better (and something certainly worth considering).

But the Icahn-controlled remainder is still a deal killer.

Ahh...but the $2.3 billion a year "guarantee" is dependent on traffic., which means it's meaningless. If the traffic is there, Yahoo doesn't need a guarantee.

The minimum is $1.6 billion either way and like you said it doesn't affect the front end so traffic should not be affected. For along time yhoo did not do its own search.

Here's my take on the deal.

$2B EBIT seems reasonable with the revenue guarantees and the expenses cut from running search. That only adds $600M to the present number, its hard to tell because not sure how much of their present revenue from search will be affected. A valuation of 14.5X GAAP pre-tax income also seems reasonable although in this market that could be a fuzzy number. The largest unknown, distribute $9 worth of asian assets to whom? And finally, we'd be getting $2.5 plus $2.77 (if all shares tendered) plus $2 ? (pretty sure that debt comes as cash to shareholders) $7.27 per share in cash.


Still too fuzzy a deal.

Here's Icahns letter to shareholders detailing the deal, provided by Rav on another post.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/921669/000092847508000260/dfan14a071408.txt

FriendlyAdvice said:
Henry,

Yahoo has lost 8% share of search queries since July 2006. This means share could be 12% by 2010 if the same rate of decline continues. Do you think Yahoo has any chance to turn this trend around? Can their algo search product be better than Google?

The smart decision seems to be to sell the search asset "now" to the only buyer that is likely to be interested in buying it. What makes you think that the search asset would grow in value over the next couple of years?

Once Yahoo is out of search it can focus on re-igniting the growth of its audience business. Yahoo's audience business is being undervalued, underestimated and hampered by the obsession with search.

Cherry-picking suggests that MS is getting Yahoo's best asset. As far as I know, Yahoo search is not a great asset but an impaired one.

@Henry

Good post and a very good point. Guarantee is meaningless if tied to traffic. Think about what this means. If MSFT wants to reduce its commitment to YHOO under this deal, all it needs to do is to degrade its ad placement technology which shouldn't be too hard to do (may even happen naturally with Powerset :-) - no pun intended).

Compare this to the GOOG deal:
1. GOOG deal is non-exclusive. YHOO can choose to partner with others. MSFT deal is not only exclusive, but it also puts restrictions on potential transactions that YHOO may want to do, as per YHOO's press release.
2. YHOO can choose to increase or decrease the traffic outsourced to GOOG as it pleases. So it has full control and it can benefit from improvements made in-house. MSFT deal essentially means killing its internal ad placement efforts (which are second-rate) and go with third-rate technology developed my MSFT.
3. GOOG offers better TAC rates than MSFT.
4. GOOG has a lot more inventory and significantly better technology, so click-through and conversion rates should be significantly better than MSFT.

It would be interesting to see how this plays out at the Senate hearing. I think GOOG will contrast its offer with that of MSFT and show that a non-exclusive deal with full flexibility for YHOO is definitely not as anti-competitive as the exclusive and restrictive deal offered by MSFT.

It seems like Icahn and MSFT are grasping at straws here, without making any significant effort to work out a deal that would be acceptable to most shareholders of YHOO and current BOD. In fact Icahn is now helping MSFT to milk the cows without paying for them.


GetReal said:
Ugh, all this weak Yahoo pandering in recent weeks.

Bottom line: If rejecting the offer was a good thing the stock wouldn't be tanking 3-5% today.

How about Apple+Goog+Asian(?)+GE+PE+(news,AOL).. to buy yahoo directly or indirectly?
Hey, apple 160B.
GOOG 160B
Asian ppl trillion B.
GE 270B...
Sony....

Apple gets the content,channel, tech (based on freebsd)?
GOOG gets asian assert+ any non monopoly stuff.
Asian ppl get definitely something at us or asia.

More important, they have one common enemy: oh, msft.

Apple could now safely bet down msft on any gaget and even content , OS.

GOOG , yep, search,internet, now apps, office, os.

Sony , ps3 with content vs xbox?


As long as they provide a very straight forward deal like 28~30 cash/equity deal.
Let us slam msft.



I just feel so silly that Ican can not make another deal with those partners to leverage himself.


eventually, everyone get what they wants at the price of the evil of msft.

msft will be history in 5~10 years.

Melanie Griffith said:
At this point, we can only hope that they all shut up until August 1.

Voting in Icahn in the absence of a real offer from Microsoft for the whole company is moronic. No sane person wants to own YHOO or a YHOO stub operated by Icahn and his cronies. Bill Miller ain't gonna do it. Gordon Crawford might.

Icahn is going to need a real deal an an incentive to get shareholders over the hump. MSFT has three weeks to put up or shut up. If they wan't YHOO, it is right there for them to grab....by making a real offer for the whole company. No more bullshit.


Also, the important thing to remember is that Don Johnson predicted all of this and he made a ton of money.


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zandra (URL) said:
640-802 Microsoft and Yahoo Really Do Hate Each Other...Bring on the Shareholder Meeting* It's a deal. You're so retarded.

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