Will The iPhone's Apps Store Kill The 'Jailbreak' Market? Maybe Not (AAPL)

It won't be possible to jailbreak. If it were, the whole setup would be broken.

Is hacking anything really impossible? I don't know what kind of security/authentication requirements Apple will have, but do you really think that people couldn't get around it if they wanted to? Pretty much every other portable gadget has been compromised.

I suspect the vast majority of current iPhone users don't even know what jail breaking is, and wouldn't consider doing it if they did. And, if iPhone 2 is as big a success with businesses as expected, those that hack their phones will become an even smaller percentage.

Any computer can be hacked, and so will the 3G. But I depend on my iPhone for business, so it stays as is. I will however shell out money to the first person who offers a good way to sync ToDos.

Anything which can be engineered can also be reverse-engineered. Give some 13-year olds two weeks, and it will succumb as easily as any previous iterations of the firmware have been previously. The interesting thing about iphones vs motorola or nokia phones is that carriers cannot interfere with the usb connection, which allows all manner of software and firmware changes to be easily pushed to the phone. The fact that the machine itself is one large solid state disk, as opposed to the locked down chipset of a nokia or motorola phone also allows hackers to play with the os at their will, perhaps even running android or some other such OS on the iphone.

Of course, they'll be some jailbreakers and unlockers, just less %-wise than before.

Plus, I think Apple will release an iPhone software update with new user apps/features sometime in late August/early Sept, which will send the jailbreakers back to square one again.

I believe it will still exist, but become a very small market. There will always be hackers out there doing things just for the sake of doing them. However the vast majority just want software, and will likely be very happy with the app store, and won't want to risk damage to their phone.

What procedures do Apple / AT&T have in place that prevent customers from buying the iPhone for $200, never signing a 2-year contract (or signing up and then terminating), and using it as a wifi-only device?

Andy, I've heard a few different things. One is that you will not be allowed to leave the store without a contract. Another is that there will be some sort of leeway for online sales, and a "penalty" is you don't sign a contract within X days. Another is that there will also be an unsubsidized price for people who don't qualify for the subsidy. Not sure how that will be gamed.

I think it is safe to say that there will still be one popular category for jailbreaking, and that is unlocking. It doesn't matter what Apple does to tie down the iPhone, their is still a huge demand to use it on other carriers.

Excellent point, Nicholas, though it will be a lot more expensive to unlock if Apple/carriers are able to enforce the you-must-sign-a-contract-or-we'll-kill-you provision.

Not necessarily true Dan... All indications seems to point to the idea that you'll be able to buy an unlocked iPhone for about $410 (only $10 more than yesterday's iPhone). Yes, you'll have to commit to an AT&T contract at the point of sale, but AT&T's early termination fee will be $174, plus $36 for something else, and then you're free.

Clearly, it will be far more difficult for the grey marketers to do this with a large number of iPhones, but for the one-offs who want to use the iPhone on T-Mobile, or in an unsupported country, it shouldn't be any more expensive that unlocking a 2.5G iPhone was, even if it's a little more time consuming and difficult.

I agree, however, that the market for app-only jailbreaking will be so minute as to be inconsequential moving forward.

Sorry, I meant "a lot more expensive" than $199, not $399. Apologies if unclear.

Agree that the grey market will mostly evaporate -- AT&T probably not going to give someone their 20th subsidized phone after 19 broken contracts. One-offs prolly won't be too uncommon, especially wealthy folks who get paid in Euros.

LOL... exactly... "Hello, I know I just cancelled my two-year iPhone contract this morning, but I'd like another one please!"

I'm guessing it'll still exist simply to provide features that Apple has artificially restricted, such as tethering the phone to your computer to use it's internet access on said computer. For $30 a month for 3G connectivity, I'd expect to be able to use it with my computer when I want to.

Jailbreaking the iphone is the first thing I am going to do with this device most likely, but I also have modded/hacked every single device I own and ever buy. I think people who are like me are probably not the vast majority of people who will be buying the iphone. Counting days til July 11.

I suspect the Jailbreaking market will continue to thrive, but not for the new 3G iPhone--for 1st Gen iPhones, and only in markets where the 3G iPhone has not been released yet. People that have the original 1st generation iphone will be eager to trade up for the newer, faster model, but the low price-point of the newer faster phone will make the old phone worthless in countries where it is currently supported, but there will still be some value for those old phones in countries that don't have the 3G iphone support, or where apple isn't selling phones in the first place.

I'd love it if jailbreaking could go away because the SDK eliminated the need for it, however, you can review the API's in the SDK and see for yourself that a number of important features are missing, such as accessing Bluetooth or using the Camera to record and stream video. These eliminate a number of legitimate mainstream applications from the mix, not just the fringe stuff like arcade emulators and porn that you list.

My take:

- jailbreaking to switch carriers is much more problematic to Apple & partners than jailbreaking to add applications the SDK can't handle

- the new procedures at AT&T / etc. should cut down on the former quite a bit, although there will still be some interest in the latter thanks to Apple's control over the appstore. The tighter the control, the more interest.

- the new SDK applications are compelling enough (and enough will be free) that if it's a one-or-the-other situation, jailbreaking is dead in the water.

- although it might take a while, hackers will eventually be able to jailbreak a 2.0 phone so it can run both native SDK applications and jailbroken ones using off-limits APIs, and when this happens a small subset of people will continue to jailbreak their phones

- if hackers were to figure out how to pirate paid SDK applications (which are currently DRM protected), then the incidence of jailbreaking would go up considerably, but this possibility is more uncertain

I will use jailbreak, that's for sure! Jailbreak is the only answer to make your iphne/touch work with linux. If there is no jailbreak, no chance to buy iphone.

In the UK, you will be able to buy a pay as you go phone from O2 - so this isnt tied into a contract, but is tied to O2, so people will buy this and unlock it to other carriers - no idea what the price is, but i've heard around £369 - about $600. Also, in Belgium, it is currently illegal to sell a locked phone, so if they sell pay as you go phones, they will be unlocked - apparently the Belgium launch has been pushed back a bit - probably to sort this situation out...

KG had an interesting idea. What's the possibility of running Android on the iPhone? Would need drivers for multitouch, etc. Is this a pipe dream or just a lengthy pain in the ass to develop?

I suspect jailbreaking will be larger abroad, particularly in Asian markets. Will, for example, Apple allow alternative input systems for inputing Chinese, instead of the one that will be shipping with the 2.0 software (which does look good, don't get me wrong)? If they don't allow for alternatives, I can easily see there being a market for custom input methods.

In addition, I think people discount the desire for people to get something for nothing, particularly games. How many cheapskates would rather steal Monkeyball instead of paying 10 clams for it? This desire will only grow as the number of apps for the platform grow.

Finally, the percentage of jailbroken phones/iPods very well may go down, but as this platform goes mainstream and sells a ton of devices that also means MORE individuals interested in jailbreaking overall.

@Dan & KG..

I can't really see any point in wanting to do that. You'd be talking about completely overwriting the iPhone software (and firmware?) and OS X to put Android on it, so you'd basically end up with just a one-button touchscreen Android phone. I'm sure there will be more than one or two of those available from other vendors (prolly with an FM radio too!).

@David Dugan: I guess people might try anything just to try it. (Fat chance HTC will be able to fully duplicate the quality of Apple's hardware.) But it sounds like it would be a lot of work? And risky.

First off, Jailbreaking != Unlocking. They have different purposes, although often done with a common tool that does both jobs for you.

Honestly, with the new contract structure, AT&T has no reason to prohibit unlocking as they did before, as they can still enforce their ETF. I think T-Mobile has it right - you can get the unlock code for your phone 90 days after the purchase date. This gives T-Mobile enough billing to make back the subsidy, while still allowing you to use the phone with another carrier.

Unlocking also doesn't mean "Use with a competing carrier" - it means being able to buy a prepaid SIM when traveling overseas instead of paying $.99/minute in roaming charges. I do this even when I go to Canada.

I think jailbreaking will be less important - and less common - but I'm probably not the only one who is extremely uncomfortable with the way in which Apple is micromanaging what people put on their iPhones.

I fully plan on keeping my iPhone jailbroken if for no other reason than because I want to have control over what I install on a phone I purchased.

If someone comes up with a superior application that just so happens to elbow into Apple or AT&T's business desires, I want to be able to install it if I wish to do so.

- Jeff

The unlocked market might flow the other way -- from Europe into the US, and the Euro carriers are giving away the iphone for free.


There is also a legit secondary market in iphones which would require unlocking. That market isn't really there yet -- but will be in force as 1G iphones are dumped on the market from upgraders. You'll need jailbreaking to unlock them....

This from the Iconfactory's Craig Hockenberry, via Twitter, via Daring Fireball:

The market for jailbreak apps is ONLY in countries where there is no App Store. Hackers and non-mainstream apps will move over to Android…

I'll believe in Android as the great Panacea when I see it. Given that carriers and phone manufacturers will be as free as everyone else to do what they wish with Android, I think you're going to see a lot of Verizon-style crippling of Android on most handsets.

Reaction to Android among the punditry has been almost giddy, but not so much among the carriers and handset OEMs. I just wish it would come to market already...

Cautiously optimistic about Android because I think Google could make some cool apps/services. But also nervous because it sounds like Google is trusting the OEMs to lead the way for hardware excellence/innovation. Which is a losing bet. (Happy to let them prove me wrong, of course.)

The iPhone works because the powerful/cool hardware makes the powerful/cool software work, and vice-versa. If Google is counting on Samsung or Motorola to come up with awesome features (like multitouch) and THEN support them in Android, that's worrisome.

Mine is jailbroken as I live outside the states.
I notice alot of comments above are from US citizens and you need to think "outside" America. The rest of the world market is huge so though alot of people from your country may not jailbreak their iphones you can bet that there will be plenty outside the States that do. I read alot of people wont update to a 3G iphone anyway in the States. The 3G in your country is so far behind Asia and a huge chunck of the world. Even where i live in New Zealand we have 4 million people but have had a very good 3G network for a very long time. These sort of things effect greatly what happens all over the planet. Just look at China it has a huge number of iPhones but no official carrier. Whats the population of places like China and India? in the Billions.

@Dan..

I think it's fair to be reasonably excited about Android, and I agree that Google will develop cool apps & services (that accelerometer-based street-view on the latest demo was pretty slick), but they'll be developing those apps & services for Android, iPhone, Blackberry and other platforms as well (as they dwindle towards insignificance)... that's their raison d'etre. They've been very clear about the fact that they don't feel like they're competing with iPhone, and that they want Google to live and thrive on everything.

Remember, Android is not Google's power play to dominate a market sector (that's Apple's game), it's a trojan horse to get Google advertising onto mobile phones and spur on the mobile advertising market that everyone thinks is the next big thing. So it doesn't serve Google to be proprietary or to hoard certain apps and services only for Android.

I'd also add to your "reasons that the iPhone works" the fact that Apple was able to wrest *complete control* of the user experience from the carrier (first AT&T, now 70+ others) but no other handset OEM has been able to match that accomplishment. I don't see Android phones as being the vehicle that gives handset manufacturers that power, because it won't be unique to any of them.

BUT!

If Google did make a Google-branded gPhone that was not crippled or limited in any way, they could probably demand an Apple-like control over the user experience and abilities of the phone and turn Android into something really cool (possibly). That's not likely to happen, however. Google wants to be in concert with phone makers, not competition. They want everyone to be successful and for all phones to be rich and robust, so that they can all serve up Google ads.

After watching Apple kick the whole industry in the crotch last year, and seeing the pathetic state of the mobile web on other phones, they said, "We can't wait around any longer for these mouth-breathers to develop decent phones. If we want the mobile advertising market to take off, we've got to do it for them." And Android was born.

Of course, this has absolutely nothing to do with jailbreaking iPhones...

Good night kids!

To clarify my "it won't be jailbroken" claim: what I'm really saying is that a hacked iPhone 3G will be ten thousand times more awkward for ordinary folk to obtain or use. A curiosity, like a house constructed entirely from used beer bottles, rather than a practical choice.

Physical access to a device makes a hack possible. The first hack of iPhone by Geohot involved hardware modification. But it's far from likely that a software-only hack will quickly be discovered this time. And Apple may resin encapsulate the electronics, rendering hardware hacking much more difficult.

If Apple didn't think they could pull this off, they wouldn't be in the cellphone business. Who wants to be Motorola?

Tethering your iPhone to a laptop maybe a case where there is a need to jailbreak the iPhone. Using your iPhone as a modem may void your service ATT service contract, so I can't see Apple allowing this type of app through the store. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

There are a few reasons that jailbreaking will still be prominent. People will always be looking for customization in their devices, which at the moment is only achievable by jailbreaking. Another is that jailbreaking allows independent developers to release their own creative software, such as the TapTapRevolution app. Lastly, people will always be looking to save money. Many of the apps in the Apple App Store cost money, and so people will still gladly use jailbreaking as a means to circumvent paying for something they could easily get for free. I think that jailbreaking will not die because it, unlike many other handheld device hacks, such as the PSP, has been made so public, easy and user friendly that there is no real reason for people to stop.

jailbreaking is now possible. they figured out a way it's just not released yet

Until Apple provides a way to tether data, then jail breaking will be a necessity for some.

People that charge ten bucks for a flashlight application are the reason I'm going to jailbreak mine. WTF? seriously... I want to make my own applications and not have them pass through apples okay. It's my phone let me do what I want with it... stop trying to control me I am laying the 2,000 down to own this thing over the next few years.

If someone makes a real browser for the iphone (FireFox) and Flash support (my god Apple why is this so hard!) my phone would be broken immediately.

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Well it is about as hard as a simple "Delete All" for the Trash Can ;-)

Palm now more or less a Microsoft partner has demonstrated that a long time ago. I agree, the (Palm OS) Treo has a couple of flaws, too (mostly when it comes to bad connections causing it to restart the OS) but e.g. the Mail app contains options to delete several messages at once ever since 2004 or 05. And despite the troubles with DNS entries or failed POP connects sound quite similar to the iPhone, at least they got that 4 years ago, too. Not to mention GPRS/EDGE type of performance.

The flag to automatically delete a message on the mail server, too may not always work from my experience with German vendors, but at least the whole application won't be deleted BY that server or that of Palm (even Microsoft is unlikely the root of such crazy and evil ideas ;-|)

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