Wildly Bullish Analyst: Kindle is New iPod, Amazon Will Sell $2.5 Billion In eBooks By 2012

And does he say who's buying these? I've seen exactly 1 person using the Kindle and this person was a tech-geek (that's not a put-down). My panel cities are San Francisco and New York. And, by the way, there is competition here....a la Sony.

Will, the point has been brought up at Silicon Alley Insider before: They have only just seen their very first “Kindle” out in the wild:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/found_a_real_amazon_kindle_user

Rather telling, I would say, given the device was introduced some seven months ago.

Reminds me of clicks, eyeballs, etc...

"Kindle, tomorrow's Newton, today!"

I just purchased a Kindle and think the iPod analogy is fair. I waited seven months to purchase it to make sure it wasn't a spur-of-the-moment purchase. Too bad I did, I wouldn't have regretted it.

There is little doubt the wireless feature will propel this forward especially in metro areas with strong Sprint signals. And at $359, that is all that matters right now.

If I were commuting via train as I had been, this would be the greatest thing I got since my XM radio three years ago.

$359 ???

Why did you pay so much? Kindles are being dumped on eBay for as low as $299 (with free shipping!).

Quite the discount for such a "hot" item, wouldn't you agree?

http://cgi.ebay.com/NEW-AMAZON-KINDLE-EBOOK-READING-DEVICE-NIB-UNREGISTERED_W0QQitemZ260251589359QQihZ016QQcategoryZ88752QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Coming from the education field - this has piqued quite a bit of interest in my peers.

I know several people that have one now, and all of them love it.

I've also heard of people going to the trouble to scan class books so they don't have to carry them around.

I can't say whether it will be as big as the IPod, but I do think it's gathering steam.

TM -

Sorry about being unclear. If I had purchased it when it first came out, I would not have regretted doing so despite the price decrease.

Knowing ebay had it for $299 doesn't bother me iether. The device is a great product with obvious room to even better.

And does he say who's buying these? I've seen exactly 1 person using the Kindle and this person was a tech-geek (that's not a put-down). My panel cities are San Francisco and New York. And, by the way, there is competition here....a la Sony.

TM
If you look on eBay, there are only 22 Kindles for sale. The new ones are priced close to the $349 retail price. The used ones are priced lower around $280. So I certainly would not characterize this as as a deluge of "Kindles are being dumped on eBay for as low as $299 (with free shipping!)". For a comparison, IPhone has pages & pages of eBay listings with used prices in the low $200s...

These analyst comments remind me of 2000 when this same bunch said that the ebook business would be $2 billion by 2004.

Instead, in 2001 about 50% of the ebook companies went out of business. In 2004 the actual market was just a couple of tens of millions. The actual market size in 2008 was perhaps $50 to $60 million. The analysts were not heard from again until ... now! They won't fare much better.

The bottom line is, to sell $2.5 billion kindle content in 2012, there would have to be about 10 to 20 *million* kindles out there. That's about 1 in 10 of all USA adults. That's more people than have iphones today.

It simply is not going to happen.

One big reason it is not going to happen is that the iphone/ipod touch both make stunning ebook reading devices and the Apple app store is opening a few weeks from now. Put a kindle side-by-side with an ipod touch, safari browse to a free book to get some idea of the reading experience (a real ebook reader will be better than a browser in several respects, as i said you just have to wait a few more weeks for app store to open).

There is no comparison, most people would take the ipod touch ebook reader without a moment's hesitation over the kindle. The screen is clearer by far, the touch screen makes it far more usable, the backlight makes it usable in many places the kindle is useless, the battery life at 7 hours is perfectly fine for reading ebooks. Oh, yes, and you can do tons of things with it besides reading ebooks. Oh, and it's cheaper than kindle. Oh, and it has 8 gb of memory instead of 150 mb so it can hold 20 full audio books and a thousand of your favorite songs at the same time.... you get my drift? Only someone highly susceptible to amazon's top-of-page-24x7 kindle marketing push would choose the kindle over an ipod touch with reading software installed.

Kindle will be kindling by fall.

And before you say "the screen is too small" on iphone/itouch, I will counter by saying this: If Apple really believed amazon could sell 10 million kindles, don't ya think they would release a 6" diagonal ipod touch and simply blow Amazon out of the water once and for all?

In other words, this analyst is assuming nobody else wants to compete with amazon. And that's simply an unreasonable position to take. If they start to become obviously successful, competitors will come and eat their lunch. Amazon is not a device company.

The comparison with the ipod touch is specious. Most importantly, it's not just about device capabilities, but also about the infrastructure behind the device --- servers, books, and delivery. Judging by Apple's .MAC efforts, I'll be very surprised if Apple decides to invest in the book market when there are other obviously more profitable markets.

The ipod Touch is also not cheaper than the Kindle. The iPhone is a $1879 TCO purchase over 24 months. The Kindle is much less because of the lack of a service plan necessary to keep it running (not to mention the large collection of free books out there, even if you never buy a book from Amazon.com).

The iPod Touch/iPhone aren't in the same market as the Kindle. Is it possible that 12 million Kindles be sold by 2012? Absolutelly. At $10 a book, and 20 books a year per Kindle attach rate, that would easily generate that 2.5 billion in revenue. Don't forget, only the most enthusiastic readers would buy the Kindle. (And I can believe that 5% of the US population are avid readers)

I still don't get this. I could get an ASUS eepc for cheaper, which I can use to read plenty of e-books. Then I would also be able to surf the web and check email. This device still seems overpriced for what it is. If they could get it down to the price of an ipod (<= 200), I could see people buying it. I still am waiting to see some real sales data (as opposed to the "extrapolated" data I've seen so far).

I have an EEE PC too. It's great. But it won't last 3 hours on a plane for reading. The screen is also pretty useless outdoors. I expect the Kindle price will drop to $200 by 2012. No question about that. In fact, I expect to see that price by the end of 2009, and $100 by 2011.

Dear Kindle: please get a Hollywood face lift that makes you look more like me, Angela Jolie, with sexier knobs and a sensual, responsive body. You look more like Martha Stewart, and I think her look is so, how should I say, passe. Think of me in your next design and your users will be so happy they have one in their pockets -- just too hard to pass up at any price.

I have purchased 4 Kindles, 1 for me and the others for friends and family. The Kindle is really designed for one thing, to read books on. It is not backlit which allows you to read for many hours without eyestrain. The battery lasts for days, not a few hours like most backlit devices. Comparisons to Apple products are ridiculous. It's for pwople who enjoy reading, period.

I have waited on purchasing this also, to see how things went. I also have noted that Fictionwise.com is now selling Kindle ebooks. With more selection, the only thing that is stopping my purchase is the price. I could live with $299, but that is top dollar. I suspect if Amazon dropped the price below $300 they would have a winner. I now read only ebooks, and always on the computer. I would like a Kindle as I have read it is easier on the eyes.

AMAZON, drop the price and sales will go up, follow Jobs' example with the iphone.

Saying who needs the Kindle is like saying who needs the iPod?

Lest we forget, the Kindle does more for readers than anything similar in the market.

The demand for the Kindle will increase once Amazon introduces it to Africa and Asia where there are millions of people who would certainly prefer the Kindle to the Ipod.

The Kindle is amazing for its amazing clarity; the dictionary you can call up (OAD) while on a line, the 24/7 wireless access that includes ability to send email, the notes I can attach to a page which are then 'with' the book at all times -- and I find my eyes don't tire from this the way they can with hard-copy books of varying print sizes and fonts.
The iPhone is via just one network and costs monthly, while the Kindle has no wireless charges, and I just love the 24/7 access wherever I happen to be. They offer, for free, for now, BBC news as well as MSNBC in full, long articles, with BBC updating every minute.

The ability to have magazines or newspapers (am on the free trial for full NY Times access) just showing up and being so easy to read through, anywhere, is fantastic to me. There's a wealth of free books out there too. Everything downloads via fast Sprint Edvo and the Sunday Times takes less than 30 seconds to come through.

I have an iPod but it's not been as addictive to me as this (to me) wonder. As for how many are using it, my ex plus a close friend plus her brother all have one. I now carry it everywhere.

My cell phone does do fast web in color and with beautiful graphics, but can't compete with this Kindle.

640-802 Wildly Bullish Analyst: Kindle is New iPod, Amazon Will Sell $2.5 Billion In eBooks By 2012 That's bullshit. Play dumb. Don't play dumb. You know about that.

That's nothing? Forget it. 640-802 / 642-373 / 642-061 / 000-331 / 9L0-509 / 646-204

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this ipod is really expensive for nothing!dam u people