Why Yahoo-Microsoft Will Be a Disaster, Part 1: "Windows Live Hot Yahoo Mail"

Henry Blodget | May 3, 2008 9:04 AM

ballmernasdaq.jpgHere's one of many early-warning signs that the Yahoo (YHOO)-Microsoft deal, if it happens, will be a disaster.

For the combination to work, Microsoft (MSFT) will have to be ruthless about eliminating its own weaker web brands in favor of Yahoo's stronger ones. There is no reason to combine the companies if Microsoft plans to continue to maintain "MSN", "Windows Live", "Hotmail," and other brands. Doing so would be similar to rolling up Lycos, Infoseek, and Excite and running them all as separate search engines: Even if you saved some money merging the back-ends, the consumer front-ends would die on the vine.

Killing its own brands will be tough for Microsoft--the company has invested a lot of time and money in building them, and, politically, eliminating the "Windows" branding especially will be tough. But this will be critical if the merger is to succeed. It is also an arena in which Microsoft has struggled mightily in the past.

Consider the company's mail branding. Kara Swisher outlines the current offerings and speculates about what might happen when the brands are combined:

Yahoo! Mail is considered a stronger brand. Hotmail has already been in the midst of a transition, including a recent name change to Windows Live Hotmail. Microsoft’s mail offerings now include Hotmail and also Windows Live Mail. The latter offering would presumably remain at the merged company with its @live.com address.

Kara is speculating here, so we shouldn't assume Microsoft would be shortsighted enough to maintain the "Live" address--or, worse, continue to flog a service called "Windows Live Hotmail." (They should kill the latter tomorrow, with or without Yahoo.) But Microsoft's tortured web branding decisions--in mail and elsewhere--over the past decade raise a yellow caution flag.

The biggest hurdle for the Yahoo-Microsoft deal is the combined entity operating within a behemoth that is still powered by Windows and Office. It's not hard to imagine the meeting in which the Windows kingpins nuke the idea that the Windows brand will be struck from the company's mail service...which could eventually lead to a horrific compromise like "Windows Live Hot Yahoo Mail." At which point even we decade-long Yahoo Mail users, will be decamping for Google.

See Also
Regulatory Appeasement on Mail Systems May Hurt Rationale For Microsoft-Yahoo Deal
 Why The Microsoft-Yahoo Deal Will Be A Disaster

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34 Comments

My2Cents said:
Henry, Those IM/Mail figures are likely global figures - it's hard to get the full picture if you're only asking your neighbors. AIM and AOL Mail have scale in the US only, while Microsoft and Yahoo have either comparable or larger presence in mail but continue to lag in IM. Btw, I believe the issue is less about what brands live or die but more about market share. On a global basis, a combined Microsoft and Yahoo would control an enormous share of the mail and IM markets, regardless of whether or not they keep multiple brands alive.
microhoo said:
Sheesh. That pic of Ballmer is an amazing find Henry! Lol!!
Messa said:
Ballmer may be rich, but he's also déclassé....Enough said.
Ryan said:
Pretty interesting argument. I'll add my own experience here. I own a small business and have used Yahoo! mail for it for a good number of years now. The minute this merger was announced, I began the migration over to Gmail. It wasn't because it was necessarily better, but rather it appeared in my eyes to offer less "issues" moving forward. I don't want to have to worry about changing my email again, which was one of the reasons I went with Yahoo! in the first place....

Oh well, what can one do?
me said:
If the merger is such a 'disaster,' why MSFT wanted to do it so badly?

Are the leaders in MSFT less intelligent than Kara or similar?
HammerHead said:
Why are you referencing Kara so much given her inconsistency? Are you pulling a Jimbo Wales Henry?
pk de cville said:
Interesting point about moving from yahoo to gmail.

I made the move 2 years ago. Rather than change my email address, I've kept my yahoo address active and, for a mere $20/yr, all my yahoo mail gets forwarded to me at gmail! When I send from gMail I set the return address to my yahoo address.

So, it appears to me, that I am one of perhaps millions of gmailers who are counted as yahoo-ers. Other than getting bad census numbers, I'm very happy on gMail.
Bjorn Tipling (URL) said:
Sounds like it's just an issue of 'sunk costs' and any MBA graduate should know how to deal with that issue.
Victor said:
There is no denouement in which Google doesn't win. Search is headed for a Google monopoly. The only question is whether msft will implode trying to prevent that. If I were a msft employee I'd be praying to God that Ballmer walks away.
abe said:
It is not a ridiculous argument that msft's wanting the deal means it is a good one for them; it alone is a pretty strong one, in fact.

What is really absurb is to claim that it will be disastrous for microsoft. Not only does that seem unlikely but how could this be known by outsiders at this point?? It couldn't be.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. Especially if you are not Ballmer and his team with access to huge amounts of information and possessed of a depth of understanding of msft that arguably no one else has.
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