Microsoft Cashback Test Drive: Slick! (But Won't Kill Google)
After a brief test-drive of Microsoft Live Search cashback (and a scan of the lengthy press release), our thoughts are below. The product execution is strong and answers some of our questions/concerns. For the reasons we outlined earlier, however, we still don't think the new service will pose much of a threat to Google. Try cashback yourself here.
The "cash back" varies by store, which is a nice feature for both advertisers and searchers. This makes cashback similar to a real-time sale, where retailers can compete for your business. Of course, it's also no different than an actual sale, which would show up in a price-comparison shopping search engine. On our test drive, the percent of cash back on a $100 digital camera ranged from 2% to a surprisingly meaningful and tempting 13% (Circuit City).
"Cashback" products will be mixed with non-participating products in search results. This is good, as it allows Microsoft's product search engine to include products and retailers who don't participate, thus making the selection better for users.
Microsoft has grabbed many of the key partners except one: Amazon. Our personal shopping searches start (and usually end) at Amazon. We note that Amazon is not yet playing ball here, probably because it wants to maintain its draw as many users' primary shopping destination. eBay is participating, but it remains to be seen how well eBay products can be integrated into the SERPs.
Microsoft only gets paid if you buy something (CPA). This is nice for merchants but probably a bummer for Microsoft (they bear the risk of drive-bys and window shoppers). It's also not clear how much merchants pay for clicks and/or how this is determined). Any insight here would be appreciated.
Nice execution! As the screenshot below shows, the SERPs are organized by percent of cash back and allow you to compare bottom-line prices. This is clean and simple, as was the registration and click-through to J&R. The "total store price" in the lefthand graphic was wrong (and different from the one in the right box), but, hey, it's beta.
See Also: Microsoft Cashback Google Killer: Great Idea, Won't Work
Searchers/users will still use Google for all kinds of searches, but when they decide to actually buy something, will switch to Live/Cashback to consummate a purchase. At some point in time, they'll get tired of all the switching, and stay with Live -- at least I believe that's what the thinking here is. Habits die hard but they're only habits: pragmatic self-interest always trumps a habit.
Don't forget that Amazon's A9 tried this. It was a smaller refund (1.5%, I think), but still material. And didn't exactly set the world on fire.
In your previous post you argue that Google can beat Microsoft in a rebate price war here, but how can you say that? In a vacuum, not considering Microsoft's other properties, you are correct, but Microsoft would be more than happy to engage Google in such a price war if it means lower margins and less profit for Google. Microsoft is the only company on the planet that can engage in a prolonged price war where it is losing money on search - it is a stretch to compare Amazon's previous forays here to Microsoft as Amazon doesn't have nearly the cash hoard or cash flow as Microsoft and, thus, could never offer a meaningful discount to consumers.
I'm sort of amazed that more people aren't impressed by this!
1. Be more determined and aggressively go after the YHOO ad outsourcing deal. MSFT has made it obvious by this move, that their real intention behind getting the scale on internet search is to kill the market, not milk it. This is what GOOG guys are afraid of. They don't mind competition as long as its fair and based on merits and not on subsidy. This is also the reason that Yang is reluctant to sell out to MSFT.
2. Undercut MSFT with Google apps. I wouldn't be surprised if they soon provide a fully functional offline office applications package, without requiring gears and internet connection.
3. Go after the WIN XP and Vista markets. I think with Vista getting bad reputation and the significance of OS waning, now may be a good time for Google to get into this market as well. There is a lot of demand for low cost desktops all over the world. This can be their opportunity to hurt MSFT's cash cow. They already have some experience in the OS domain with their work on android and also have a strong brand.
www.jellyfish.com
Rav, if the best turnaround tactics Google can come up with against MS with are 1-4 they are finished. Google Apps? You must be kidding.
http://www.jellyfish.com/
1. Looking at Steve Baldwin's comment, the only real loser if this is successful are Google and the shareholders, because margins may come down. Users will benefit from lower prices, it is more about redistributing the pie, not killing it.
2. There are already a lot of apps from OpenOffice to Google Gear that can and do undercut Office. However, their functionality is always limited. And if Google undercuts MSFT by giving a fully functional Office suite, it will have to pay for it through advertising right...same retailers that bailed if Live offers better returns. Of course MSFart can just cut prices, and consumers benefit.
3 Better option, however with Linux, Ubuntu, even Apple, there are multiple options. But if they go down this road, they will incur a huge increase in operating cost and R&D that will essentially make them look like a MSFT, and margins will still come down for Google. Plus this is unlikely, since they are pushing forward with a cloud approach, so they really do not need to go down this road.
The way it works is that Google searchers will simply click on an ad or organic link, go to the store, and pay whatever the retailer charges. The "cash back" isn't reflected in the e-tailer's shopping cart if users search/click through Google, or, go to the site directly, or for that matter, through Live. You must go to your Cashback account to see the rebate/cashback.
So I don't see how it's possible for non-Cashback searchers to pay more than they will through Cashback on a participating merchant site.
I agree that people will get tired of searching through Google, pasting the product URL or description into Live/Cashback, and completing the purchase. This is far too annoying! The hope seems to be that after a certain number of experiences, users will just go to Live and leave Google behind.
Second, they are just doing it for the press. I don't see any mention of the new promotion on MSN.com which is one of the most highly trafficked sites on the internet. If they wanted real exposure they could get it quickly.
This sad dance is the same thing like when they gave out prizes for people that searched, or when they said they'd give a percent of money they made to charity to increase search clicks.
Live search sucks for a lot of reasons...first, they still call Shopping Search, Products. Even worst, they hide it so if you wanted to comparison shop you wouldn't be able to. The user experience is horrible compared to just about everyone else with almost everything else with the exception of maps. The way they handle stock quotes, and other top searches really points to the fact that they dabble in search and specialize in software.
If they paid some of the $40 billion and let people come up with ways on how to make their product better they may just get somewhere. Tricks like this don't do the trick.
This is the 2nd time I am disappointed with your research WRT Cashback. It is nonsensical to compare Amazon's A9 with Msft Cashback. The tiny A9 applies only to products purchased on Amazon while Cashback has a much wider range of stores.
Someone also used Google Checkout enticement as failure argument. The G Checkout rebate is ONE TIME rebate, while Cashback applies whenever you buy from Msft's partners.
I own both MSFT and GOOG. I also run a small business that uses both Adwords and Msft AdCenter. Each month I spend about $200 on Adwords, and $10 on Adcenter. I also sell on Amazon where I pay $40 a month plus 15% commission to Amazon. I will be glad to pay Msft 15% commission to sell my products. They can give buyers 10% and keep 5. Cashback will work for Microsoft but won't necessarily dent Goog.
Robert J.
The result is that people definitely get a better deal here than with products at the same stores found through Google - instead of Microsoft collecting the CPC ad revenue, Microsoft has chosen to rebate that amount to the buyer and its a CPA model.
Google's options are either to not engage Microsoft and hope people don't find out about the better deals using Live or to do something similar, thereby cutting into their margins.
How is it wrong? Presumably if you were to buy directly from J&R, you would pay the $99.99 price + the $6.95 Shipping for a total of $106.94 as shown in the left hand side graphic. Yes, its beta, but this does not appear to be one of the bugs.
...or how is this not just making people publicly aware of online price comparison engines. I'd hate to be PriceGrabber and a handful of startups today. People are using search for a lot more than just shopping these days. If anything, shopping was destined to fall in the near-term anyway because of tightening consumer credit.
It could very well hurt CPCs for product ads, but I'm not convinced that Google will be as pained as people imagine.
The estimated loss to each shopper per item is calculated at 17%.
I have no idea where he pulled his calculations from, or how accurate his estimate is.
His comment is here (I hope that link formats correctly - for some reason I'm using IE at the moment, so it might not).
I want to know if there's any truth to what Brad is saying, or is he just whistling into the wind?
If nothing else, I can't wait for all the websites and blogs that will do comparisons for us - it will make for much more lively reading than usual over the next few weeks or months...
It wasn't Brad and it wasn't 17%, it was solomonrex with this comment.
(I'll reprint the comment now and link to it, since SAI didn't respect my carefully HTML-formatted underline for the first link and uses a font color that makes the links almost impossible to see, anyway):
"solomonrex said:May. 21, 1:06 PM
Trevor, you're not seeing the market correctly.
Google still provides a more appealing search for users. They don't even advertise, users just discover this on their own by switching whenever another search engine fails. I don't think Google's search advantage is primarily algorithms anymore. I think the algorithms apply to their advertising scheme, yes. But they're a better search product because they're better at data center operations. And I don't see anyone catching them there. They take it seriously enough to be in the energy industry now. So, eventually we're back to the advertisers picking the most eyeballs, which will still be google.
So it's really about the datacenter.
And $17 back on a camera sounds like a lot, unless the price is higher through that merchant. Which it is! The camera through a google search is $50 cheaper (based on 20*17=340), so that's $23 that a consumer would lose. And Dollar Store people will figure this out and leave and live search will be back at square one. But at least that explains Amazon's willingness to do this - if they're getting a higher selling price on the items, they'll gladly pay MS a lesser fee. Discover card works because we pay the same prices as MasterCard and Visa customers."
I want to know if he is full of crap or what.
I think he's saying that Google can index more because Google has more servers to hold the entire index in - to break it down to it's most simplistic retelling. Excellent arguement, BTW - so why can't MS build out their own infrastructure by adding more datacenters, dark fiber, engineers - whatever it is they need? MS is a cashflow-positive company that can well afford to do whatever it takes...anyone see why they shouldn't just go for it?
The feature itself is not new. There are tons of sites which already offer price comparison and rebates. The price comparison sites will be fine, because they can just combine their results with the results from live, and tell the consumer about the best deal, which in some cases may end up on live.
Its bad for the advertisers because it will squeeze their margins if they have to foot the bill for the cashback. Its fine for the advertisers as long as MSFT provides the service and foots the cashback bill. The moment this stops, the advertisers will bail. Footing the bill forever is not sustainable for MSFT. Its already losing billions on its online efforts and spending on cashback would make the situation even worse than it already is. Its bad business because the amount of money MSFT loses would be directly proportional to the growth in its search share. Google didn't grow big by losing money dotcom style. In fact they were consistently profitable throughout their brief history.
"The camera through a google search is $50 cheaper (based on 20*17=340), so that's $23 that a consumer would lose..."
Let's look at the only part of solomonrex's comment that I'm actually concerned with:
"...And $17 back on a camera sounds like a lot, unless the price is higher through that merchant. Which it is! The camera through a google search is $50 cheaper (based on 20*17=340), so that's $23 that a consumer would lose. And Dollar Store people will figure this out and leave and live search will be back at square one. But at least that explains Amazon's willingness to do this - if they're getting a higher selling price on the items, they'll gladly pay MS a lesser fee. Discover card works because we pay the same prices as MasterCard and Visa customers.""
He doesn't even say which camera he's comparison-shopping on, which ruins his whole arguement, doesn't it?
Could someone break his math down for me a bit more? Where is he pulling his figures from? What sort of calculations is he doing? (I haven't seen math like that since I took alegebra in high school, and I'm waaaaay too long out of high school now to make heads or tails of whatever the hell he's doing).
Anyone?
That said, even assuming the price advantage, MSFT still has the price comparison site's dilemma: getting traffic that would otherwise just go to a) their favorite retailer for the item in question, and/or b) google. "Victor" is correct: net margin of the participating vendors will determine their bids (no matter how you parse it), and why would you go anywhere but the place with the most traffic and proven results.
A Hail Mary, at best, for MSFT.
Could it be possible that someone on the street understands more about how economics and businesses work than those WEB 2.0 pundits do?
I noticed that, too. Google is down, slightly more so in after hours trading, Microsoft is slightly up in after hours, TWX is up a lot, and strangely enough Yahoo! is slightly down. What to make of it?
Maybe the street indeed understands that Google might get its butt kicked now, that Yahoo! needs to make some sort of decision - any decision - at this point, and that TWX selling off cable was a better idea than investors originally thought (but I can't believe TW did that, all the same - it was an absolute cash cow...the only profiteers in this scenerio are the investors who make one time gains - big deal. It hurts TWX overall, or it will - no longer having to carry debt on that division doesn't seem like enough of a reason to let it go)...
I find you comment reassuring and perplexing all at the same time, so I'm not sure what to make of it. You seem to miss my overall point: is Microsoft Cashback really going to be consistently cheaper than buying directly through Google search? That's all I want to know.
It always makes my heart sink to my stomach when someone says they don't understand me because I hate lack of clarity, so hopefully that straightens out the obvious mess I've made of my comments here (I should never use IE - it's bad luck - so I'm back in Firefox now).
Moreover....
"...you seem to be making the point of how inconsequential this is"
No, au contriare, buddy: this is of monumental importance to me and many others, I'm sure.
"...that doesn't mean there isn't a cheaper retailer out there not participating in Microsoft's Cashback program."
But...will consumers really feel like searching through all those different sites in the sheer hope of finding one that's cheaper than MS Cashback is?
Or will they just go with the convenience of knowing they can consistently save a lot of money with one quick stop at MS Cashback? The answer seems clear to me.
When I'm the sort of person who won't backlink to whatever I'm quoting myself as having said yesterday on SAI because it's just too much trouble and I'm that lazy (and that determined to save myself time), how do you think all the Armchair Online Warriors are going to react to searching Google, six etailers, and finally MS Cashback to find the cheapest price on one item? They aren't. They'll pick one site to serve their needs and stick to it out of pure convenience and to gain a pleasant feeling of overall efficiency.
As determined as I am to save a buck, I don't go tearing through every online iPod listing to find the cheapest one - instead I'll gladly spend a few extra dollars for the pure convenience of knowing I'll always find the iPod I want at a reasonable price on eBay.
Time is money. It's more essential to our personal well-being and harder to get and keep than all the wealth in the world. So if I can save time by limiting the bulk of my shopping to one site, then that's what I'll do.
As to Amazon not participating, you're right -they're not - and I'm surprised they aren't.
Almost every single time I found a better price on GOOG for the same item on Live including the cashback. The reason is the sheer number of merchants reachable through the GOOG engine. In the beginning I think a shopper may try both searches but if over time they find little to no difference between the two they will almost certainly go with GOOG.
I don't think GOOG will respond tit for tat more likely GOOG will use its Search DNA and do something else nifty to endear itself to web surfers and continue to be the search destination of choice. In the short term all this noise will likely impact GOOG stock price and may offer up some great bargain to own stock in a great company.
In pay-per-click, advertisers bid against each other through the ad-click cost, with Cashback they bid against each other directly through the (supposedly standardized) product. That leaves no room for any conversion skill to be applied by anyone, so price is the only thing that matters.
(Also, how does this take into account non-price benefits such as length/easy of return period, service, shipping speeds, etc.?)
Well, how can that work for anyone but the cheapest advertiser for a given query? How does that work for MULTIPLE advertisers in a way that they would abandon Google in favor of this?
Not that anything prevents a Google Base (Products) listing to just (for free no less) meet or beat the final price on Live Search Cashback without the phony and cumbersome "discount" gimmick.
Also, this model does not work for anything but the most regimented offerings that have no variations, options, complex add-ons, etc. because the merchant simply cannot quote you this price reliably all the way at the search level.
And forget about info products or anything else that doesn't fit this lowest-common-denominator mold.
Also, how will MSFT rank the low-price "bids" if 20 merchants come up with the exact same discount/final-price numbers? By first-come-first-serve? That is why Google's auction model may well be indispensable.
Think a bit about this stuff before drinking the MSFT cool-aid.
Why are they going to Microsoft Cashback in the first place? If they are too lazy, they stay with Google. If they care at all, they do some comparisons and see that Google displays other retailers with lower prices, stop going to Cashback. If they really, really care, they check multiple sites.
(Henry says they provide mixed results, but I think that's only in search results... Once I'm on a cashback page, I only see participating retailers even though I can find cheaper retailers for the same product.)
I don't see how the lazy argument is in Microsoft's benefit.
That's why I'm saying you are showing how inconsequential, it is. People who think this is of great consequence are somehow jumping to the absurd conclusion that people are jumping to Microsoft? Not happening.
I would have liked to see the model extended to CPC (i.e. I get cash back for the ads I choose) and/or see it set up so that I could provide that cash to a charity of my choice. Click fraud you say? Remember, all of the engines claim this is not an issue...
Seriously, it is your attention - why shouldn't you be paid for it? I think they need to extend this too toolbars, etc. Make it easier for people to use. I will definitely use it to compare and, as a Jellyfish user, think it is not a bad proposition as a consumer.
What I do know is that I shop at Newegg.com and deepdiscount.com (DVDs), and if I do so through this site, then I get an extra 2.8%/4.0% off the purchase. Sounds like a win-win for me.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they e-mail you a reminder to pick up your rebate. I didn't see it on their FAQ, but if they're already sending you a welcome e-mail and a purchase notification e-mail, then why wouldn't they tell you to pick it up?
I am curious on whether they can spend that money while it is in escrow or not. If so, they might get a lot of float capital, like Costco's business model...
I only care how much cashback I can get. In eBay I can get 20% - 25% off. That is very good deal. I buy 1 oz gold coins which is around $1000 and with 25% off I get the maximum of $250 cashback. Tell me any story in the world can give this kind of deal and I'll spend all my money.
I have two eBay accounts so I can have 6 transactions, each with $250 cashback. Thank you Microsoft.
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