Jerry Yang: We Weren't Close To Microsoft Deal, We're Not Under Seige, Give Us Time

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jerryyang5.jpgThis is the definition of a defensive crouch: Explaining, over and over again, that you're not in a defensive crouch.

We're not sure that given the circumstances, anyone in Jerry Yang's position could have come off well at the D conference today. Jerry certainly didn't: He struggled to articulate what he wanted to do with the company, but blamed the press for not paying attention to his plans. Asked why he should lead the company, he argued that while he didn't have that much experience, he "bleeds purple".

He was direct about one thing: His version of the busted YHOO/MSFT deal. Contrary to what Steve Ballmer has said, Jerry insisted, it was never that close, and it wasn't just about price. Oh -- and that even if he wanted to do the deal, he couldn't because Ballmer had walked away.

Message: "Leave me alone!" (Mike Arrington's take: "We're Done"). But we don't think that's going to work on Carl Icahn and crew.

Transcript/summary follows. Video highlights, in two parts, at bottom of post.

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Yesterday at the D conference, Steve Ballmer insisted that Microsoft(MSFT) wasn't interested in buying Yahoo (YHOO) outright. Conventional wisdom at the D conference today: He's absolutely interested in buying Yahoo. Let's see what Jerry and Sue have to say about that.

Intro'd by weird video starring Jerry, Sue, Zuckerberg, Buffett, Michael Dell, etc.

Walt interviewing (where is Kara?). So where do things stand?

Jerry. "It's been a very interesting process. We read about it more than we probably should. It seems like the Journal knows about what we're doing before we know what we're doing. Microsoft is no longer interested in buying the company, and they are discussing various other partenerships and ideas with us, and we're listening, as we would with anyone."

"I think it's fair to say, as we look at this whole time span... the process started in a way that was very public.. and we weren't sure what twists and turns it could take." In the meantime, we've always had dialouge. "Our boards and our companies have always had a couple things in mind. From day one, we've always said we're open to a transaction. That's been public, and we mean it."

So price is the issue, right? "I think that's the most public issue." but other issues, including regulatory and "a number of other things" and I don't think we had enough discussions about "other things" to make me feel that we had enough things in place even if we agreed on price. Now it's a he-said, she-said. I don't want to get into it.

"I'm sort of mixed about what happend.. We all understood that a combination like that done, right, could have enormous power and leverage." But stresses that there are a number of different reasons -- as opposed to what Ballmer said last night.

Sue: "We never got through the price door. Once you're through the price door" there are a number of things you talk about.

Google? Jerry sort of talking around it, says he and Sue have been tranforming company over last 9 months. "Value gap between us and the market leader" Walt challenges him to name market leader out loud, like Voldemort. Jerry: "I like Google". Jerry talking in circles and circles. Will he ever talk about Google deal? OK - acknowledges old news - that they've "conducted a test". "We are a very uniquely positioned company" and we could have a "very unique relationship."... "I'm going to get to it, in a roundabout way." No, apparently, he's not.

Walt points out that MSFT described Google as a potential Monopoly last night. Jerry talking very very obliquely about search, and growth. Nada re: specifics. Search still early in game. "We're just starting to innovate" putting in scale, ability to innovate.

Walt points out that people fleeing Yahoo in droves, so who's left to do that innovation? "Word is you've been losing some of those people" (understatement).

Sue: "We've had turnover over the years... our turnover rate really hasn't changed over this process. It's gotten a little harder to hire." Hired over 600 people during this (quarter? process?)

Jerry: "There's a lot going on, I won't deny that. But the perception of us being under seige, that's just not accurate." This is important to me: "There's a sense that Yahoo's getting weaker, that there's vulnerabilities, that we can't be independent anymore..." but the essence of Yahoo "is a lot stronger" now.

Walt: Lots of people, like me, admire your products. But I'm not sure I understand that I know what you guys think Yahoo is. Terry Semel could never answer that question. We know what GM does, what Microsoft does, what Apple does. What is the business of Yahoo? Search, IM, aggregator, etc.? What is it? Seriously, what is it?

Jerry: Semi non-answer...I think of Yahoo as we have to be incredibly relevant to consumers, and we want you to come to us first thing in the day, and multiple times a day. That's a powerful position and one we've had in the past. It's the "starting point" focus.

Sue: Home page, search, mail and mobile. That's the core four things.

Walt: What is the home page? Yahoo.com, My.Yahoo?

Sue: Yahoo.com, if we're interpreting what she's saying correctly.

Jerry: Yahoo open system, Yahoo open social important. Building platform to be more open. Allowing developers to use search as a canvas, that's important because we have 500 million people looking at us. Different from Facebook, MySpace, because we have more important assets. Think about what you can do with Yahoo mail, or Yahoo home page. Conceptually same as what other people doing, but the opportunity to work on the Yahoo canvas is so much more rich and powerful.

Sue: Repeats what Jerry says, but says "social graph" and "social connectivity".

Walt: You've tried all sorts of social stuff. None of it worked.

Sue: What we're trying to do is to use all the social connections you already have via our products, and we can ignite those connections when you show up, and surface that immediately, that's important.

Here comes Kara, via video: She looks evil and ominous in aviator glasses. She calls out Jerry and demands that he have lunch with her. Hohoho. Time for real question:

Kara: You were there for a lot of the decline. Why are you the leaders? Why should you have this office?

Sue: "We've both been here in various roles over the years... I think as a company we have made a few mistakes. I think Jerry and I are excited to try to address them." We've gotten away from core ecosystem: User, advertiser, publisher.

Jerry: I haven't gotten any calls to run GM. But "I do think I'm the best person to run Yahoo. Not only because I bleed purple, and bleed Yahoo." But also because I understand the problems. I don't have all the experience... but I also feel that it's my time to take that to the next level. I feel like I am most passionate, and am the most vissionary about where we want to be. People are short-term oriented, but we have a long term goal.

Walt: Do you think your users or investors get that?

Jerry: "We need to make adjustements in order to make this happen." We've said that this period (since I came on) wouldn't see instant results. Some harversting but not overnight. Financial results will follow if and win we can transform user experience. We're doing fundamentally important stuff, that people aren't paying attention to because of the "other stuff."

Walt: How is that going to appease shareholders who want to sell for $33?

Jerry: I'm sympathetic to those feelings. But at the same time "We did not walk away from that proposal. Microsoft did. I've always said that we're willing to do the deal at the right terms... It wasn't clear to me that they wanted to finish the deal...It is not something that I can go and take or not take...I understand our obligations to our stockholders. Believe me." But focus for us is long-term. We're not going to go do something that forgoes out long-term prospects for short-term gain.

Sue: We think our inventory is undervalued. By a lot. We've already said that about search. We know how much value there is there. We also know that 90% of Web activity is not search, and we're really good at that. There's probably a 10 to 100x pricing difference between display and search, because of the friction. So our inventory very valuable. Right now our scale is working against us. We're trying to get it to work for us.

 

See Also: Ballmer: "We're Not Rebidding For Yahoo"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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186 Comments (page 1 of 2)

stone said:
This is really quite sad. Can Sue and Jerry be any less articulate about what they stand for? It's pretty amazing that Sue Decker still has a job. Can anyone tell me what Mobile means? According to Sue that's what Yahoo is --- mobile. Mobile what? Search? Content? IM?

I thought they were a graphical ad network. If you pull their conference call transcript from right after Semel's departure (last summer) they were a major advertising force and that was their differentiator. Now they are a start page.

Their board should really keep Sue Decker away from these events. She does not come across well.

Ya said:
@ stone

THANKYOU!

frustrated said:
Jerr and Sue baaahahaha, two aholes! They have never come across well in any setting or interview or speech. Please someone please prove me wrong, please give me an example of a time when either of them made sense. OOOhhh there was the time Jerr testified about the China debacle, opppsss no go on that one he came off looking like an idiot. Stone agree 100% with what you had to say. Jerr your bleeding purple well pal I am bleeding money thanks to your inept management style. Get’em Carl!


stone said:
I'm sure that some Yahoo board members read industry blogs. I know I would if I were them. They have to know how inept Sue Decker is yet she may walk away with $100M when all is said and done. It's an absolute disgrace. What do they have to say for themselves? Can anyone say anything good about Sue Decker? I didn't think so.

Inspector G said:
Go-Go-Gadget-Carl

Marah Marie (URL) said:
It's really not good when you run a company, especially a large company, and cannot articulate what it does, what it is, what it stands for, where it is now, where it's going, or what it will become. Yet time after time I see the most inarticulate people running companies I might not trust Einstein to keep from ruining. Forget Jerry and Sue, or include them, if you will, and add to the muddy mess they make of Yahoo's "vision" the likes of Randy Falco (can't articulate and shows no class when he tries to), Jeff Bewkes (refuses to be pinned down to any concrete answer about anything, but can offer plenty of inaccurate ones) Sergey Brin (talks around things rather than about them and refuses specificity in almost all discussions), Marissa Mayer (always speaking in a racing speech in which she comes off like one those old FedEx commercials guys, combined with a shallow ValleyGirl slang which is not too endearing)...but I'll forgive Bill Gates for not being a natural speaker because he has Asperger's, and was obviously brilliant enough in other ways to make up for his awkwardness.

But the rest of them (and I'm sure there are many more people like the above who I'm not yet aware of) are just deplorable examples of people who other people let run companies. When these companies run into trouble does anyone wonder why?

Now that we have heard both versions - Ballmer's and Yang's, I find Yang's version as more credible. Ballmer has emphasized that the main reason for the failure to close the deal is difference between the bid and the ask. Yang and Sue say that even if they had agreed on a price, it would just take the discussions to the next level. They still had a lot of things to discuss and agree on - namely, the valuation guarantee, regulatory issues etc. Since MSFT never brings up or talks about these issues, which are quite important in my opinion to the acquired party, they don't seem to be serious about paying up the appropriate price and acquiring Yahoo. This also explains their abrupt walk without indulging in serious negotiations.

Even now MSFT doesn't seem serious because they keep coming up with these ridiculous proposals of acquiring parts of Yahoo. Why should Yahoo agree to any of these? Is there one good reason? Only thing that MSFT brings to the table for Yahoo is cash. Since MSFT is interested in the deal and not YHOO, the terms have to be closer to YHOO's expectations. The people who like to berate Yang, need to understand this and the fact that all he is trying to do is get a better deal for YHOO, which is his fiduciary responsibility and also a rational thing to do with him holding substantial amount of stock. There is no sense of urgency for Yang, because even if MSFT pretends to walk again and again, there will still be a MSFT put supporting YHOO stock and also the hope of potential deal with GOOG. This is the reason that Icahn and his buddies took out long term positions in YHOO.

One thing is clear after the interviews on D, that MSFT and YHOO are miles apart in terms of their perception of the current status. MSFT still believes and hopes that they will be able to acquire YHOO for cheap, especially with the shareholder activism. They are just keeping enough of an interest in the deal to dissuade YHOO from signing up with GOOG. Unless MSFT categorically declares that they are not interested in any kind of deal with YHOO, its difficult for Yang to sign up with GOOG and justify the action with the shareholders, especially before the proxy fight.

I think MSFT is betting that Yang will feel pressured and sign a deal as the proxy fight nears. However this is a risky bet, because Yang may indeed go for the proxy fight and win it. In that case it would be even more expensive for MSFT to come back to the negotiating table. Once the proxy fight is out of the way, there would be nothing to stop Yang from signing up with GOOG, which is his preferred alternative, as he has made amply clear several times. Both GOOG and YHOO have similar cultures and mutual admiration, so there shouldn't be any execution risks.

Now coming to the question of mis-management of Yahoo, I think it was primarily Terry Semel's vision that was responsible for Yahoo's strategic failures. Sue is a fine executive and Warren Buffet wouldn't have her on the BRK board unless he was convinced of this. Also, primary reason for Yahoo's decline in last couple of years, that is not obvious for most observers is that their competition GOOG is too strong and a better player. If you can hold your own against Michael Jordan and lose the game, you are still a decent player. If we compare to MSFT's failures against GOOG, even after billions of dollars poured into its online endeavors, YHOO seems to have done much better relatively.

Hypothetically speaking, if GOOG could acquire all of YHOO with no regulatory issues, what would be the market price for YHOO? The price that YHOO is looking for seems reasonable, if GOOG and MSFT had to bid against each other to acquire all of YHOO. MSFT is just trying to undercut its bid for YHOO, by using the regulatory hurdles against GOOG acquiring YHOO, to its advantage. Yang and GOOG guys realize this and won't let it happen, no matter what the rest of the world thinks.

joeblow said:
I thought they were articulate enough for a swivel-chair chat, and Yang refuted Ballmer's "only about price" statement just like I figured he would when he got any public forum to do it. Yang continues to have credibility with me... even though decisions he's made haven't worked out to my financial benefit.

That deal talk ending in the Seattle airport was never close to a definitive agreement, not even remotely close. I'd thought so the week before that meeting, but I'm pretty sure now it wasn't. Ozzie didn't incorrectly speak in NY. He was speaking about a deal in the past tense that didn't happen. Maybe Ozzie was hoping for yet another shot to merge pieces of Yahoo or all of it with MSFT - I suppose anything is possible, but Ozzie knows the original deal never got close.

Even if Ballmer had gotten them just to the point of agreement on price, even if at 33 (and I doubt it was possible much under 36), he wasn't prepared to collar the deal based on market swings (too much risk for MSFT stock), and he wasn't willing to offer any means of regulatory assurance and a corresponding guaranteed transfer of value.

It's easy to understand why Ballmer sandbagged Yang on the matter of regulatory tactics for all these nearly 4 months now. It's because he wanted Yahoo to undertake the same regulatory risks of the deal falling apart that MSFT would carry, and any discussion of the matter would've required MSFT to pony up the warranties, not Yahoo.

Were the subject to be discussed in preparation for a definitive agreement, it goes something like this:

Yang: "Can you be assured that the regulatory approval will be obtained?"

Ballmer: "Yeah."

Yang: "Good, and since you can, write us a big failure-to-launch check, say, 5 bil ought to do it, just to show us how sure you are... just sign it "Fire-Bombin' Ballmer" and we'll put the date on the check if we ever need to cash it later."

usbworks said:
Maybe I'm not reading between the lines but, reading first the Gates & Ballmer interview and then later the Yang & Decker interview, I don't see a deal between Microsoft and Yahoo.

I think the only smoke screen in this never ending story is the smoke being blown up our asses by Wall Street anal-ysts.

Once the smoke clears, we'll all realize the truth. Gates doesn't want to buy it and Yang doesn't want to sell it.





Burt Reynolds said:
@ usbworks

I think that is one of the best comments I have seen for a long time on this subject.

stone said:
Panama, Ad Exchange, Graphical Ad Network, Start Page, Search, Newspaper Network, Mobile, Open Network: What do all these have in common? They are *all* stated strategies by Sue Decker and Jerry Yang over the past 12 months. Anyone remember the Peanut Butter Manifesto? Has anything changed in 18 months? Sue Decker cannot coherently explain what they do --- swivel chair or no swivel chair. I just don't buy it that they have a strategy.

Hey JoeBlow, if you think they have a strategy then you must really like Yahoo. I think Yahoo is a basketcase and most people agree with me. I think they lack a coherent product strategy. If they want to be the start page for the web, and this is the major priority, why did they buy Blue Lithium and Right Media as their major acqusitions within the past 12 months? Neither support their strategy. Why? Because they are clueless and the start page idea came off some stupid whiteboard at some stupid off-site.

Neek said:
Yawn.

Here is ineptitude embodied in two genders, in a futile attempt to explain their way out of a mess they got themselves into and only have themselves to blame.

Sure, it's Microsoft's fault. And Mickey Mouse's too! Everybody did it wrong but them.

Neek said:
Yo stone, I don't necessarily enjoy jumping into a generalized batch like "most people," but (a) Yahoo! is a basketcase and (b) I agree with you

joeblow said:
Stone,

I think they said on the D that they want to be "the first place you go" online and the "place you jump from to other places you want to go" and the "place you jump back to when you're done." Their strategy and objectives were clearly enough stated and demonstrated for MSFT to bid big for the company, because those are the same objectives MSFT has for their online operations.

Yes, I like Yahoo (use it's sites more than any other single site) and I really like Yang and Decker, although I don't have a position in Yahoo any more. They have a lot of credibility with me, and indeed, I'd not particularly thought of this, but Decker being on Buffet's board is no small recommendation of character and ability.

FWIW, there's definitely some "eye of the beholder" going on here - while many of the chatterers I talked to yesterday though Jerry and Sue came off poorly, that view wasn't shared by all. One M&A expert I talked to (will keep his name private per his request, but he's not working with either party) thought Jerry and Sue's body language projected strength and confidence.

jay said:
Peter:
LOL.
The Yahoo team looked like buffoons, which at least Susan is as confirmed by many former colleagues. Compare Jerry Yang to Rubert's interview: There is a man who is a real CEO.


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