Is Amazon Going To Sell 48,000 Kindles A Month? (AMZN)

Richard McRoskey | May 7, 2008 2:20 PM

kindlecake.jpgHow many Kindles are out there? To date we've only heard the vaguest of anecdotes. Now some theoretical numbers: According to Asian tech pub Digitimes, the Taiwanese company that makes the display module for the Kindle and other e-readers is shipping 60,000-80,000 of them monthly and expects that number to hit 120,000 by the second half of the year. (via IndieKindle)

Prime View International, which manufactures the Kindle's 6-inch electrophoretic display (EPD), says 60% of those displays go to Amazon. That means Jeff Bezos is ordering up to 48,000 per month--and the number could approach 72,000 by year's end, if PVI's forecast is accurate.

Amazon (AMZN) said it had resolved its long-running Kindle supply problems in mid-April, so we don't know how many Kindles it was moving prior to that.

But for argument's sake, let's average the 48,000 and 72,000 monthly numbers: 55,000 a month. And let's say that Amazon does indeed sell that many for the remainder of the year. By our count, that means we're looking at least 660,000 Kindles by end of 2008. Not shabby for a $399 gadget not made by Apple.

See Also: Amazon Reboots Kindle Sales

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67 Comments

Thambone said:
I can't believe those numbers are accurate. Who is buying these things? When will we ever get any official numbers from Amazon?
kev said:
It's not impossible to believe if you consider that the Kindle nicely fits the needs of retiring baby boomers. Failing eyes and a stash of spending money can lead to some surprises... The Kindle's been the #1 electronics bestseller on Amazon for months. That said, I'm still skeptical in the short-term because of Bezos' incessant pleading.
JC said:
So far I have purchased 4 Kindles, the latest being one for my mother as a Mothers' Day gift. This device is absolutely amazing. Its fantastic to wake up in the morning with the New York Times waiting for you to read on your Kindle...no need to go outside to get the paper or deal with the mess associated with reading a traditional paper.
Logical Extremes (URL) said:
I always wondered why all the hype when all that was known was that they were hard to keep in stock - just means they weren't making enough, not that demand was incredible or anything.

But I still believe it is forever a niche product - people want to be able to loan and sell their books, and read them at the beach. None of those use cases is well met by an electronic device with DRM'd content. And it's big and ugly to boot.
Mike M. (URL) said:
I've just never... seen anybody with one.
David Berkowitz (URL) said:
People I know with them talk about them like early adopters did about Tivo. And this is something that will be harder to commoditize, so maybe Amazon's really on to something.
Joseph Hunkins (URL) said:
Excuse me but are you partly or completely daft? 55,000 Kindles would be big news and Amazon would hardly hide this. I'd guess the number is more like 5,000 a month and the Taiwan thing is a ruse. Who is buying this? I've only seen a handful of reviews which were almost all by people who got one .... free.
Mike Evangelist said:
Joseph hit it on the head,

No way these numbers are even close to right. If they were, Amazon would be bragging about them everywhere. The fact that they have not released any numbers demonstrates that the actual numbers are not brag-worthy.
p d said:
PVI recently announced (in June) that sales of e-ink displays were dwindling in the USA. The figures quoted in this article are older of course.

Also, they never said that 60% of the current number were going to amazon, they projected that 60% of the second half figures were going to go to amazon. Quite different. PVI has also be very overoptimistic with their projections in the past. The fact that 60 days later they said USA e-ink sales were in the tank emphasizes this point.

In addition, all those projections were before iphone supported ebook reading apps. iPhone probably will have 50,000 people reading ebooks by end of August and ten times that number by end of 2008, killing off demand for kindle going into the second half.

So in short, I put no faith whatsoever in these numbers. There are at most 50,0000 kindles in the hands of consumers (as of july 2008) according to information i have gathered privately. And maybe double that number by end of 2008, at best. But many times that many on iphone and ipod touch in the same period.

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