Is Sprint-Clearwire Doomed From The Start?

Dan Frommer | May 7, 2008 12:21 PM

hindenburg.gifSprint's (S) WiMax spinoff/JV with Clearwire (CLWR) has a big task ahead: Build a massive, high-speed wireless network from scratch, and then convince enough people to sign up for it that it's profitable.

With big investments (and promises for promotion) from cable giants, Intel (INTC), and Google (GOOG), Clearwire has potential. But its success isn't guaranteed. Some of our first questions:

Is the deal doomed from the start?

One of the most important advantages that Clearwire has is that it is still a few years ahead of similar offerings from rivals like AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless. But the buildout projections the company supplied today weren't very reassuring. Clearwire plans to build out service to cover 120-140 million people by 2010. But that's a "back-loaded" buildout plan; only a tiny fraction of those people will be able to get service this year -- with a limited number of devices -- and service will only cover some cities.

When Sprint initially announced its WiMax network almost two years ago, it had planned to reach 100 million people this year. Now it will take much longer. By 2010, AT&T and Verizon will be ready to start rolling out their answer to WiMax, a technology called LTE. Will Clearwire have enough subscribers by then to be a relevant competitor?

Who will sign up for Clearwire?

For the near future, the most obvious subscribers are business travelers who want faster mobile Internet access than they currently get from 3G cards. But Clearwire won't help them much until it's built out in enough major cities.

Meanwhile, new gadgets will supposedly be out next year capable of connecting to the service. Will they be worth buying? That's an important question. In theory, we'd be excited about a gadget running Google's Android OS that could use Clearwire.

But we still haven't seen any Android gadgets and have no idea if they'll be worth anyone's time. We'd be more excited about a WiMax-enabled iPod touch (with a bigger screen perhaps), but there's no indication Apple (AAPL) will get anywhere near Clearwire. Until we see compelling gadgets (or excellent pricing), we assume Clearwire will be a very niche service.

Will the cable companies help much?

Again, in theory, it's great that Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner Cable (TWC), etc. are involved. They will eventually need to offer some sort of mobile broadband service, and Clearwire should fit the bill. And with millions of subscribers, they have a good marketing position. But will they have any luck convincing people that it's worth $40-60 more a month (theoretical pricing) to add "roaming" to their cable modem subscriptions?

Meanwhile, a good point from Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield (registration required). Comcast, the biggest stategic investor in the new Clearwire, recently hired Dave Williams to head its wireless strategy. Rich (and we) find it hard to believe that managing Comcast's participation in Clearwire will be his only job. So, second, is this just a relatively cheap way for cable to "look" at wireless while mulling their own long-term plans?

Then again, massive Comcast could eventually end up just buying Sprint. Or Clearwire, if it works out. Or both.

Will Sprint end up someday competing with Clearwire?

With a 51% stake in Clearwire, Sprint obviously cares a lot about its success. But when it sells Clearwire's service to its subscribers, it only gets 51% of the bang for its buck. Down the road, will Sprint eventually build its own "4G" network -- perhaps using LTE, if all the other telcos are using it -- to get 100% of the reward? Someone asked this question during the Clearwire call this morning, and predictably, got a non-answer.

Will the Clearwire deal prevent any other Sprint M&A, such as spinning off or selling its Nextel walkie-talkie unit or getting bought by T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom (DT)?

The FCC will probably take a good look at the deal. (A lot of spectrum is changing hands, etc.) But Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said it shouldn't get in the way of any other steps Sprint might take.

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35 Comments

Scott Berry (URL) said:
Frankly, *WiMAX* is doomed. So yes, that will take Sprint and CLWR with it. McCaw has this all mapped out as he usually does.

Note he can now sell Sprint 3G service to his clients to keep the top line looking reasonable while the WiMax piece gets delayed further. Then McCaw pretties it up and sells the whole thing back to Sprint (or Comcast), and he exits with even more genius accolades.

A little less cynical here said:
In fact, WiMax CAN succeed, and the cable co's are laying the groundwork for Clearwire's success right now...

You see, if WiMax offers truly unlimited broadband, while at the same time, the major ISP's (Time Warner, Comcast, etc.) are rolling out, or openly planning to impose monthly bandwidth limits...

Well, it's the same thing that gave Cable/DSL it's current monopoly.

Remember, about 10 years ago, the dial-up providers were working with similar bandwidth-limit models (such as the pay-as-you-go per minute billing from AOL, etc.)

Then, the cable co's said "Hey, we'll give you broadband with NO bandwidth limits."

They've been milking that cash cow ever since...

And today, wireless 24/7 connectivity @ broadband speeds is the thing everyone wants -- at the same time that an inferior product is being ratcheted up in cost (cable/DSL is still a land-line service, and while you can have a wireless home network, you sure can't take it with you).

If Clearwire will offer unlimited 24/7 wireless broadband connectivity, at the same or lower cost, it's good night for cable/DSL.

It's the new version of that perfect storm 10 years ago -- and how many dial-up providers are there now?
A little less cynical here said:
BTW, even with some cable cos sensing the danger in this situation, and actually getting a piece of Clearwire right now, Clearwire will eventually get competitors itself.

And they won't be so far in the telecos' pockets...
Scott Berry (URL) said:
@less cynical: WiMAX is no panacea. Yes, it can work in limited circumstances, but it won't scale well. Technically it's not a whole lot better than WiFi, but it's lots more expensive (not including what you pay for spectrum). And it's WAY overhyped.

70 km, 30 Mb/s, non-line-of-sight. Pick any one.

BTW, to get any appreciable distance, the transmitter in your phone/laptop will suck your battery dry faster than Dracula on a sleeping ingenue.

Believe me, I'd love to see this work nationwide, but I think it's a boondoggle. Smaller scale public networks have a chance to provide the competition we need to challenge the telecablecos, but that'll be market-by-market.
steve (URL) said:
Scott hit the nail on the head. The WiMax crowd has everyone believing there is some magic bullet in it's technology that will bring higher speeds, up to 100MBps data city-wide. But it's really just microwave/OFDM wireless data technology very similar to Wi-Fi; albeit on licensed spectrum but also Microwave like Wi-Fi; and built with lower density very expensive cell sites.

There are issues with getting the WiMax radio signals into buildings and into other RF "blind spots", just like with Wi-Fi... but
WiMax networks won't have the up-close-and-personal antenna density of Wi-Fi; too expensive. Sure, it's operated on cleaner unlicensed spectrum but that doesn't magically solve the problems that are intrinsic to the (very challenging) RF propagation environment.

Much of what is touted as "WiMax" today around the world is just point-to-point microwave data links,
a simpler technology that's been around for many years. Building a city-wide 100Mbps data network that reaches and services mobile devices robustly is a whole different level of challenge; and
there is no existence proof - no big WiMax network - yet. I'd love to see it work and am rooting for Clearwire but am skeptical that it will happen anytime soon on a large scale. It will certainly take a lot more than a $3.2B investment to build that out across the US.
AllenHarkleroad (URL) said:
Sprint overcharged our small company over $50,000.00. We caught them and asked for the over-payments to be refunded. they have refused. Read the full story on http://www.sprint-really-sucks.com
Brenshua said:
On the economics, WiMAX looks very promising, we all now the biggest expense for any provider’s system, take DSL, is its backhaul, and this is where service providers are counting that WIMAX will help. Having said that, WiMAX will remain expensive if you use T1s just like Sprint is doing, but in Clearwire’s approach, they are using Microwave access, thus cutting down the biggest expense in a WiMAX system (backhaul) below is a cost comparison chart of the current and future technologies.





Now on the “Problems intrinsic to the RF propagation environment”, if by this you are referring to multipath issues (in the frequency domain) or ISI (in the time domain) , these are problems that will plague any techonology in an RF environment, and those challenges are being addressed by the WiMAX technology in both time and frequency domain by the use of CP and MIMO systems respectively.

True that the hype of 72 Mbps and 50Km does not come close to a real situation, but surely you’ll get to see speeds somewhere in the 4mbps to 13mbps (on the DL side)

As far as OFDM, is not just OFDM, is TDD and FDD also, and the combination of these methodologies (OFDMA) is what gives the WiMAX PHY layer that desired throughput and efficiency. So I am optimistic about these challenges being overcome.
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