Goldman: Amazon Sold Up To 50,000 Kindles In Q1 (AMZN)

Look at Amazon's "user reviews" and you'll see that the number of reviews has barely nudged higher since the Kindle has become "un-soldout." The very small increase in reviews leads me to believe that whatever sales there were, have tailed off dramatically. I think all the early adopters have had their fill. I remain convinced, the Kindle is a dud: "Yesterday's Newton, today!"

Sounds reasonable to me. I have bought 5 kindles: 1 for myself, and four otehrs as gifts. Every single person I know who has one (myself included) has been blown away by the wireless capability and the ease of use. I have read more books on my kindle in the past month than I read "paper-books" all of last year!!

Is it sort of ugly? Yes.
Will it ever come close in popularity to the ipod? Not a chance.

However, as a lifelong "early-adopter", this is as good of a first product version as I have seen.

I am VERY positive on the Kindle's future based solely on my own experiences.

I tend to disagree with the guy that says that the user reviews indicate not many Kindles sold. Not everyone that bought one did a review. If you look at the number of reviews for ipods, those numbers are not as high as the numbers for the Kindle, and we all know the ipod is successful.

How many people review products? Would this be one out of a hundred. If so, that might indicate over 26,000 sold. On May 18th, there were about 18 reviews, so would this mean that maybe the sales for that day would be 1800?

It would be interesting to know what percentage of people that buy a product actually write a review. Some of the reviews are written a few days after a person buys the device. Other people write their reviews three months later.

I think the number of reviews is impressive. I seriously doubt that one out of a hundred people that buy an item, take the time to bother with writing a review. Maybe only one out of 500 people bother to write a review.

If anyone has numbers about how likely it is for someone who bought a product to write a review, perhaps that might be a good way to do the math. Myself, I am only guessing, but I bet it is not as high as one out of a hundred. I know that I have been buying things from Amazon since 1997, and I have not ever bothered to write a review, even though I have been invited to do so many times via email from Amazon. I have a Kindle and love it...but have not written a review. I guess the guy calling it a "dud" because of the number of reviews struck a nerve.

If someone knows about a study comparing review numbers with sales numbers, please comment. I would like to know the math on that.

I don't think that the Kindle review percentage can be directly compared with more established products. The Kindle's got an ardent group of first-run supporters, and I would not be surprised if, at this stage, more people took the time to write a blurb.

Just look at the negative reviews; you will be hard pressed to find one that hasn't drawn a crowd of counter-arguments. Moreover, I can't think of many products whose design flaws have been so openly accepted: people arguing that the slow screen refresh becomes natural with time, that one adapts to the large next page button, that one can use a rubber-band to hold the cover in place, etc. This is a unique product.

I'll maintain my belief that this has something to do with the demographics of the current set of customers. (They seem patient and generous...mature when compared to the initial ipod crowd.) In any case, we'll find out when Amazon releases the next iteration, and the early adopters find themselves holding something obsolete.

Yarr, still no hard sales data. I don't know why they are trying so hard to hide this information, perhaps when I see the actual sales numbers I will understand.

Let's see.....
How many bricks and mortars sell the "Kindling"?
ZERO!!
You can only buy online.
You can't touch it or try it out before purchase.
Most technophiles like great design.
I count 10,000 to date.
GS is just pumping the stock.

Let's face it, we can only speculate on what the actual sales are. I personally have purchased 4 Kindles so far. 1 for myself and 3 as gifts. I have yet to do a review on Amazon. What can I say that hasn't been said?

One thing is clear from the reviews I have read, the majority of people who actually own the Kindle give it 4 or 5 stars. Most of the 1 star reviews on Amazon are from people who don’t own one, haven’t tried one, hate the idea of the Kindle, hate the DRM aspect, etc.

As an early adopter I obviously hope the Kindle sales are through the roof. The Kindle was a definate game changer for me. I never leave home without it.

Finally, some hard sales data from Amazon:

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001018724&owner=include&count=40

I think the Kindle will do OK, not iPod OK, more like Zune OK. My reasoning is that it's too big to be truly mobile but for early-adopters and techie's that's something they can get around. The rest of us will either read a book or our laptop, iPhone, or iPod Touch. Of course, if Jobs rolls out an iPhone or iPod Touch with higher resolution screen, in which case we'll have to wait and see what the Cocoa Touch developers do.

Here is some interesting information from the May 30, 2008 press release from Amazon.com :

"Kindle is re-igniting a love of reading -- after purchasing a Kindle, customers purchase, on average, just as many physical books, and their total book purchases on Amazon increase by 2.6x. Kindle books are also becoming a meaningful portion of Amazon's overall book sales much sooner than we anticipated -- of the 125,000 books available both as a physical book and on Kindle, Kindle books already account for over 6 percent of units sold," said Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com Founder and CEO.

Looks to me like the Kindle is doing way better than everyone has been guessing. Kindle books account for over 6% of units sold. Wow!

Well I bought one at the beginning of this month and I have already purchased 10 titles, and two magazines. It is absolutely phenom. I agree that it is ugly but the design is quite good. You really feel like you are reading a book. I have read the entire foundation trilogy by Asimov on it and it was a very good experience.

One other point...I released a single very small booklet for $1.00 last week and sold two right away. It was extremely niche (a Latin translation of the Chaplet of Saint Michael that I had done) and I really didn't expect to have anyone get it. I just wanted to be able to download it as a "real book" onto my Kindle instead of having to email it to myself. I also wanted to see how the DTP system works.

This is absolutely awesome for ebooks. The wireless access is also just great. I personally believe that eventually there will be at least 2 million units out there as people see these things. I showed it at work to about 10 people. One ordered one right away 3 others said they are putting it on their shopping list for Christmas. Informal I know but that looks like about 40% like it. What is about 40% of 15 mil? that is about 5 mil or a bit more? So I am being conservative when I say I think about 2 million will eventually get one. If each one bought just $100 worth of books a year that is $200 million in residual revenue every year off of this device and of course $800 million in initial revenue. Yep...this is a huge success.

JC, you mean 6% of the 125,000 books that are available in e-book and print format, not 6% of Amazon's total sales. There's a big difference there.

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