Hedge-Fund Mogul Paulson Joins Icahn In Yahoo Siege; 30% of Proxy Vote In Bag
Carl Icahn owns 59 million Yahoo shares (YHOO), or 4% of the company. John Paulson, head of merger-arb shop Paulson & Co., who made a reported $3 billion personally shorting sub-prime last year, owns 50 million shares, Reuters says. So that's about 8% of Yahoo between them. Icahn is cleared to buy another 4%, which would make 12%.
No question how those shares will vote in a proxy fight. Then there's the 16% owned by Capital Research, whose Gordon Crawford was "extremely angry" with Jerry Yang for blowing the original Microsoft (MSFT) deal. And the 7% or so owned by Legg Mason's Bill Miller, who as much as said he'd be happy with $34 a share.
Add all of them together and you're at about 30%-35% of Yahoo's stock. Bill Miller won't vote to sack Yahoo's board unless he knows Microsoft will play ball, but let's assume Carl can at least create the impression that Microsoft's on board. Then Icahn, Paulson, & Co. only need to make it clear that they can scrape together another 15%-20% of the votes...and Jerry Yang and Roy Bostock will be on the next Seattle plane.
See Also: Meet Carl Icahn's Yahoo Board: Mark Cuban, Frank Biondi, Adam Dell, and More...
Gordon Crawford To Carl Icahn: You're Not So Clueless, After All


What is the back up plan if MSFT says no way we moved on? Is there a sum of the parts story here?
Bill Miller sold nearly 20m shares in 1Q, again likely after the deal was announced. Legg owns sub 5%
This deal is done and Ballmer will come out on top for acquiring Yahoo! for 33 dollars/share....You may argue that it is bad move for MSFT but the fact is that they didn't have to raise the offer much to get this done.
This deal is done and Ballmer will come out on top for acquiring Yahoo! for 33 dollars/share....You may argue that it is bad move for MSFT but the fact is that they didn't have to raise the offer much to get this done.
i'm sure it wouldn't be the first time!
Who do I sue? For what? When What happens?
Am I suing Icahn for insider trading? Yang for high five-ing? Or MSFT for moving on?
Fun fun fun!
Do you think there's something to it, or I'm talking about conspiracy theory?
Anyway,what I said was Icahn would not have done this except for acting as MSFT's proxy in the proxy fight.
And to answer to Icahn's WIIFM question? MSFT's signing in to a $35 offer, of course. The difference between $33 and $35 is his proxy premium. The difference between is buying price of $25 to $27 and $35 is his regular stock trade profit.
He's already up $250 MILLION in two weeks!!! What a GUY!
So if you want to pick up 12% on your money in the next 90 days, buy some YHOO...or options better yet.
Now...Jerry took a shot at $38 and said board would accept $37. He was trying for middle ground. Happens all the time. That chunky bald guy just picked up his marbles($50 BILLION) and took off. What's a guy to do....I'll tell you what I'd do....I'd be running down the halls in The Holiday Inn..."Steve, Bill Wait a second. Can't you take a joke...don't you think you can squeeze a buck or two more so we meet between the 33 and 37????? OK I'll give...let's do the deal at $34 OK???? Remember Gordon Gekko. Well since you brought up my mother. OK Steve you're a great guy,but man are you tough. $33.50 and we sign this up right now...
Now Carl has to go back and get the deal done...at $33...it's been cleared and is wired. So keep the new 09 Mercedes order in place.
He plowed into names like FRE whild dumping AMZN and YHOO. Bill Miller was smart enough to see $33 was upper pain threshold of MSFT and reallocated capital to fresh ideas.
He sold 20m out of 84m YHOO or 24% of his stake compared to just 11% of his AMZN stake and even less of EBAY. He is saying see ya to Jerry.
Jerry Yang and his team screwed up, but that was to be expected. Look at where the business is. What real management experience does Yang have? Credit and billions to him for starting a directory of sites way back when the Internet was just starting. But that does not make him a good executive. This is a fundamental problem in the Valley.
B
First, is that YHOO-GOOG talks are still ongoing with a possible deal next week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN1534279620080515
The second is YHOO's response to Icahn.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/complete-text-yahoos-reponse-carl/story.aspx?guid=%7BBBB659F0%2D1EE6%2D4C63%2DAB48%2DEDF7AB4AB73C%7D&siteid=yhoof
I find YHOO's version of merger talks with MSFT more credible than the version put forth by MSFT. The key issue is that MSFT never specified how they would ensure "certainty of value" and "certainty of closing" in its so called $33/offer. Mr. Ballmer's letter is silent on those details. Even in my previous comments, I mentioned that these reasons in addition to the difference in expectation on the share value ($37 v/s $33) were the deal-breakers.
I don't see how the activist shareholders can address those issues. I think the most likely outcome is that the activist shareholders would act as a catalyst and force the current YHOO BOD to take quick actions like selling off asian assets and signing deal with GOOG, in order to maintain the share value and also keep the company independent. We'll see how this turns out, but this is my strong belief in the eventual outcome. The alternative of MSFT acquiring YHOO at ~$35+ doesn't seem likely because of MSFT's unwillingness to pay that much and also potential negative effect on its own stock.
While speculative, that would be interesting to see...
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