Google's Paid Clicks Spike Higher in April, Relief All Around

Henry Blodget | May 29, 2008 7:11 AM

traderhappy.jpgThe collapse in Google's US paid click growth has scared the bejesus out of Google bulls for the past few months, but Comscore's April data suggests that trend has reversed. Lehman's Doug Anmuth:

comScore`s domestic paid click data for April suggest a reversal for Google from the trends seen in 1Q as paid clicks on its [Google] sites accelerated materially to +19.6% Y/Y. This compares with -0.3% Y/Y in January, +3.1% Y/Y in February, and +2.7% Y/Y in March, and is the fastest growth since November `07, when paid clicks grew 27.3% Y/Y. Although April`s growth rate could be inflated from an easier comp with Easter having been in April last year, we still believe April results were solid across Google`s domestic O&O business.

This Comscore data measures only US clicks and only Google properties--and Google's international business now contributes a far larger percentage of the company's growth (not revenue--growth). That said, it is hard to view the reacceleration in US click growth as anything but positive: One hangover concern from last quarter was the sharp deceleration in Google's US business. April's click data suggests the business may be be stabilizing.

Meanwhile, per usual, Microsoft and Yahoo took it on the chin:

Yahoo! and MSN`s paid clicks decelerated in April, suggesting improving trends were not evident across all players. Despite Google`s reacceleration in paid click growth, Yahoo`s April paid clicks fell -4.4% Y/Y and MSN`s paid clicks fell -9.0% Y/Y.

While April results for MSN showed an improvement relative to February and March where paid clicks decreased 13% Y/Y and 15% Y/Y respectively, April results for Yahoo! suggest a continued downward trend. In January Yahoo!`s paid clicks accelerated +15% Y/Y, +5.3% Y/Y in February, but then fell 3.1% in March, and fell 4.4% Y/Y in April. Prior to March`s decline in paid clicks, we note that Yahoo! had consistently seen growth in comScore`s paid clicks.

Conversely, AOL`s paid clicks appear to have stemmed their losses, growing 28.3% Y/Y in April, the first yearly growth rate reported for AOL`s paid clicks since July `07. Ask.com`s growth rate was 95.8% in April, consistent with its growth rates of 112% Y/Y in January, 88% in February, and 78% in March.

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65 Comments

jay said:
I love comscore mo money.
Danny Sullivan (URL) said:
"April's click data suggests the business may be be stabilizing."

C'mon. Seriously, people went crazy over the paid click data trying to interpret what it meant without understanding all the other things that might be going on (such as are fewer clicks generating more income). They had partial data, tried to predict what Google was doing, then got egg on their faces when Google didn't tank. To make up for it, they all yelled at comScore as if it was to blame for how they interpreted the data. And comScore has to fallback on the "international" clicks to defend itself.

The click data is only one part of the overall revenue puzzle at Google. Using it in isolation is dangerous. I'd have thought last month made this point clear. So when you say the latest data suggests something, I submit it suggests nothing.
Gogi Gupta (URL) said:
Atta boy Danny!

When dealing with Google, you have to realize that they have complete control.

If they want to fewer, higher paying ads, they raise the min. bid required. If they want to juice the numbers, they lower their ad quality requirements and let more ads run, which will lead to more clicks.

Its just like AdSense where they can throttle the revenue share payment up & down to make their own quarterly numbers.

If the metric is known, Google will win the game.
jay said:
Analyst like MR Crammer don't read the reports,he's just another talking head. So when Comscore came out with those low ball numbers it was sweet on the way down and oooooh what an friday pop that was. Now we need Comscore too down grade all this web2.0 B.S.
The US business did decelerate last quarter...Comscore was dead right about that. What people missed was the strength of international.

But if US trends now looking better that is very good news. For Google. It's lousy news for all others.
Mark said:
Something that you need to factor in for Yahoo that ComScore doesn't count is Yahoo's fast growing Search Submit Pro (paid incusion) program. So while Yahoo is making money on paid ad clicks, it's also making money per click on many of its algorithmic paid inclusion ads.

As Danny mentions, "The click data is only one part of the overall revenue puzzle..."
Alex Schleber (URL) said:
There are many things that are wrong and ill thought through in Microsoft's Live Search Cashback offering, all of which will lead to this "system" NOT working and the fundamentals of the search and search ad market staying the same or tilting further in favor of Google.

I've posted a summary discussion of this in comments on here elsewhere. But the most simple refutation comes in the form of a quick check on LSCB vs. Google for the same item. Here are the results for

Cuisinart DCC-1200 (coffee maker)

that is actually a featured item on LSCB's front page:

LCSB - Lowest "Bottom Line Price" (including 2% "cashback" discount that MSFT will kindly hold in escrow for us for a month or two) ==== $73.45

[note: there are other offerings with higher (phony) "cashback" percentages, but by it's own rules LSCB is listing the lowest "bottom line" price first, which in this case at least also happened to be the lowest price before the "discount"]

ON GOOGLE:

Paid Search (PPC) listing #1 by Amazon.com shows ==== $59.99

Included Google Products (Google Base) listing as part of Google's Universal Search on the same page shows ============ $68.72 - Electronic Express

Note that the Google Products listing inclusion is actually FREE (though not guaranteed to be shown with search results, Google dynamically adjusts this as part of Universal Search based on click-through rates).

Note that BOTH prices are LOWER (substantially in the case of Amazon's listing), and that neither require waiting for a refund or signing up for Google in any way.

I rest my case.

I agree that MSFT should vigorously compete AND INNOVATE in search or anything else it is involved in. Too bad that that doesn't really appear to be in its corporate DNA. Surely they have enough cash to do so, but do they have the inclination?
Alex Schleber (URL) said:
Addendum:

I searched a few more items featured on LSCB, same result for

Canon PowerShot A470 Digital Camera

Google FREE listings are $2-12 cheaper depending on color.

So far only

Bulova Marine Star Diamond Accents Mens Watch 96D14 With Black Dial

wins on LSCB with $192 (after $8 cashback) vs. $199 on Amazon (via Google PPC listing). Now this case is interesting because it would force a decision by the consumer on whether to go with LSCB even though they won't see the $7 savings for a while, and will have to create a whole new profile on Live if they haven't already done so.

Assuming that almost everyone has an Amazon.com account at this point, and knows and trusts Amazon as a reliable middleman, this is a real question.

Also note that Amazon actually shows a lot of other related/comparable Bulova watches, some of them at much cheaper prices. Where is LSCB on this issue?
Victor said:
Ugh, why does anyone bother with Comscore? if you recall, when their numbers came out and GOOG collapsed to $450 I told my fellow AlleyInsider readers that it was a great time to buy because those comscore numbers were way overblown.

They're probably overblown on the upside too.

The real reason to be bullish on Google is that it's in a natural monopoly business that's still growing 40% year on year at scale, and they have a number of potentially lucrative businesses (e.g., YouTube) in the pipe.

I think GOOG is going back to $700 by Fall.
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結婚指輪 (URL) said:
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クレジットカード現金化とは、キャッシング枠を枠一杯利用済みで、さらに現金を必要としている方を狙った、アンダーグラウンドなサービスです。ク レジットカードには、通常、ショッピング専用のショッピング枠と、キャッシング専用のキャッシング枠が存在しています。キャッシング枠を目一杯利用してい ると、当然ながら、カードで現金を借りることが出来なくなります。ショッピングは可能な状態ですが、そのショッピング枠だと、利用用途や利用場所に制限が 生まれます。
yoko (URL) said:
ショッピング枠現金化するので誰でもかんたんにカードでお金をおつくりできます♪ご融資などではありませんので審査や面倒な手続きは一切ございません！ ご返済方法は一括・リボ・分割（最高20回）・ボーナス一括などからお選びいただけます。当店は女性スタッフも対応しております。ご利用方法などはお気軽 に。ご利用の可否、ご利用詳細など安心・丁寧をモットーに即回答しています。急場の資金つくりにお役に立てるサポートをさせていただきます
出会い系 (URL) said:
出会い系サイトとはインターネットを利用して不特定の男女が出会いを目的としたやり取りをするウェブサイトの呼称です。その歴史は非常に古くインターネット草創期である1995年には存在していました。1996年にはインターネットでの出会いをテーマにした映画「ハル」が公開され、出会い系サイトという言葉も少しづつ定着しつつありました。まずは当時流 行っていたリクルートの個人情報誌じゃマールをそのままオンラインにしたような掲示板サイトから始まり、1997年くらいから全国的な人気になったのはヤ フーパートナーとエキサイトフレンズの2サイトでした。
行政書士 (URL) said:
行政書士は、1.官公署に提出する営業の申請・登録等の書類作成、2.権利・義務に関する書類作成、3.事実証明に関する書類の作成および、これらにつ いての相談に応じる専門職です。市民生活のきわめて広い分野で行政とのパイプ役を担います
婚約指輪 (URL) said:
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新宿　マッサージ (URL) said:
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フロント　サービス (URL) said:
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ソニー損保 (URL) said:
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ショッピング枠　現金化 (URL) said:
急場の資金作りには、お持ちのクレジットカードの余ったショッピング枠　現金化しませんか？お買い物をする枠（ショッピング枠）から当社指定の商品をご購入していただき、その場で買取ります。
クレジットカード　現金化 (URL) said:
クレジットカード　現金化のショッピング枠現金化なら、安心のフリークレジット。クレジットカード　現金化ドのショッピング利用枠があれば、どなたでもすぐに現金化できます！

新宿　マッサージ (URL) said:
新宿　マッサージをお探しなら中国気功整体＆マッサージの『長寿堂』新宿店

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