Gates Never Wanted To Buy Yahoo; Deal This Weekend or Bust
Kara also reports that Microsoft really would prefer to buy Yahoo's search business and is not just faking interest so it can swallow the whole company. Kara says neither Yahoo nor Icahn like the a la carte deal and both are hoping to persuade Microsoft to buy the whole thing for $34-$35. Kara says if a deal doesn't happen this weekend, Yahoo will do the search deal with Google (finally).
To Kara's reporting, we'll add our own: a Microsoft source told us we were off base this morning in our assumption that Microsoft was using the WSJ to convey a message to Yahoo shareholders that Jerry Yang and David Filo might still be holding out for $37 and that this was preventing Microsoft from negotiating to buy the whole company. The source said Microsoft really is interested in buying the search assets and selling off the Asian ones.
So, in our opinion, Kara's report makes sense.
In our opinion, Bill Gates throwing cold water on the Yahoo deal also makes sense: We think someone (or many people) Steve Ballmer trusts got to him over the course of the negotiations, and we doubt anyone has more influence than Bill.
Lastly, it makes sense to us that Icahn would prefer a sale over a break-up (guaranteed exit price). It also makes sense that Yahoo would be more in favor of doing a search monetization deal with Google than "selling" search to Microsoft and, therefore, that an outright sale of the company would be a more attractive Microsoft option.
So... we don't know about the "weekend or bust" aspect of Kara's report (these deadlines seem fluid), but we're on board with the rest. We still think an outright sale is more likely than a ginsu deal, but we don't think the chances of either are much higher than 50/50.
So, as we wish you all a great Memorial Day weekend, we'll leave you with our odds (and Kara's graphic, which we'll either need again real soon or never use again):
- 40% chance Microsoft acquires Yahoo for $34-ish.
40% chance of no Microsoft deal and a Google-Yahoo partnership
20% chance of an asset sale.
Best for the weekend!
I think it is unreasonable for Microsoft to assume that Yahoo will even entertain such a complex deal, which could potentially leave them badly crippled. Equally important, Microsoft cannot assume that Yahoo investors, however irate they are with Yahoo's board, will agree to this deal either.
This being the case, I will be really surprised if the break-up deal was Microsoft's only motive to reopen the talks, as Kara's Microsoft sources seem to suggest.
Ballmer needs a vacation. I hope he's not going to cough up another offer, whatever it is. This is an ill fated deal. People are fickle, you can't just snap your fingers and make YHOO brand loyalists into MSFT customers. So many will balk and go right into the arms of GOOG.
Let GOOG try to do something with Yang. Eventually YHOO and GOOG will be at each other's throats. Yang has an uphill battle from here with so many distractions. If things get really dicey, MSFT can pick up the choicest pieces with a lower offer. Yang will be relieved to come away with a deal by then. Why spend so much to smash it up now, especially with a tenuous economy?
One more thing: Henry, please refrain from the wild speculation and leave it to us message boarders. You're supposed to be a reporter. Thanks.
The only other possibility would be for all of Ballmer's friends and associates to engineer an "intervention" and hood him and tape his mouth, haul him off to some deserted island in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and feed him bread and water and make him chant the Bhagavad Gita until he promised to forget the f'ing Yahoo deal.
Many business moves and winning strategies are accomplished not by reading SEC financial disclosures and company earning report but by shrewdly calculating and orchestrating a devastating bidding/merger move. Many companies have been brought down by mind gaming. Bill and Ballmer are veterans in sending many companies to grave.
Ballmer never intented to buy Yahoo any time to begin with. You are underestimating the genius called Ballmer+Bill. Ballmer knew the friendly bid would never be acceptable to a Chinese CEO who would construe as an offensive landgrabbing move. Bill and Ballmer both knew Yang reaction well in advance and knew Yang to be childish.
I bet they had a hearty laugh everytime Yang and Filo thumped their chests like mini king kongs.
Yang is not Bill Gates or Steve Ballmer who have fought many tech wars and won each and every one of them till they met their nemesis in Google.
Microsoft will not buy Yahoo. They might have some wierd deal but they will not buy it whole.
I will quit posting if I am wrong and go back to China.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc
Ladies and Gentleman, Steve Ballmer...
Wooooooooooooooooooooooaarrghhhhheeeeeee!!!!!
I can't wait for the next 2 weeks to pan out. Either A.) YHOO will be at $33+ from the GOOG deal and will further the irrelevance position of MSFTs web assets or B.) your worst dreams will come true with Microhoo. I can't wait, I really can't. Tee hee
Until 1PM or so last Wednesday, I was a staunch proponent as respects both the merits and consummation of "The Deal". I was in Henry's "40% deal happenin' camp".
I no longer am and accordingly in support of that position, now have a neutral equity stake in it.
While my view of the business merits of a combined Microsoft/Yahoo remain solid, I have lost total confidence in the powers that be being able to ever put aside their bizarre egos, childish behavior, personal attitudes towards one another and the many other myriad of issues to constructively get this done. In other words, to many "man made" barriers to overcome.
In sum, IMO, these individuals create insurmountable impediments to Deal completion.
A few related underlying reasons or facts supporting my overnight reversal to the "Ain't Happenin'" position:
- The apparent pump (and dump) shenanigans (crazy rumors) noticed the last week or so, suggesting smart money is slowly (and increasingly) exiting.
- Icahn can't win the proxy fight - Icahn was suppose to force Microsoft back to the table to do the deal. He could only do that if he "seemingly could" win the proxy, which now appears an impossibility.
- Yang and Ballmer know Icahn can't win and therefore don't have to deal with him (or take his calls) - instead comfortably dismissing him as a neutered non-factor.
- Once Icahn accepts (he may already have) he can't win, he won't be long for the exits.
- Ballmer blinked first - Microsoft plays lousy poker. He removed any leverage to force Yang to a lower price. Further, he has compounded that newly inflicted weak position by making it even weaker with these almost daily all over the map, bizarre schizophrenic-like "deal alternatives", none of which pass muster after first glance. They are very poor attempts at desired (clever - not) breakthrough M&A negotiating tactics.
- Yang is sitting there watching and listening to Ballmer (panic) and gloatfully thinking $37, 38, 39....and not $36, 35, 34...
- Ballmer won't go above $34. And the way he's been ridiculed, his ego may not allow him to offer anything above $33. Meaning the separation price between Yang and Ballmer is getting larger not smaller.
- Yang & BOD will weather the Icahn BS (i.e. if Icahn even pursues the proxy fight, which my bet now is he won't) as well as the angst of institutional shareholders Crawford, Miller, etc.
- Yang does not want to sell and never has. His ally has been time and its working for him. Yahoo is his baby and he thinks he can organically grow the stock back to $50 or more...so he's looking for (any delaying tactics - the latest being annual meeting postponement) excuses and time to "not" sell. Ballmer and Icahn are making it very easy.
Bottom line, the facts are no longer compelling enough to support supporting the deal happening anytime soon, if at all.
I agere wit Henry that this week is the fourth quarter 2 minute drill in this Deal or No Deal game. At this point, IMO, I think you'll now see $22 before you see $35, and that $35 is 18 months in the offing, organically obtained under Yang's tutelage in the form of a still "independent", yet resurgent Yahoo (with a Goog connection).
Bottom line, I guess if this was television, Howie Mandel would agree with the facts outlined above and conclude too - "No Deal".
Until 1PM or so last Wednesday, I was a staunch proponent as respects both the merits and consummation of "The Deal". I was in Henry's "40% deal happenin' camp".
I no longer am and accordingly in support of that position, now have a neutral equity stake in it.
While my view of the business merits of a combined Microsoft/Yahoo remain solid, I have lost total confidence in the powers that be being able to ever put aside their bizarre egos, childish behavior, personal attitudes towards one another and the many other myriad of issues to constructively get this done. In other words, to many "man made" barriers to overcome.
In sum, IMO, these individuals create insurmountable impediments to Deal completion.
A few related underlying reasons or facts supporting my overnight reversal to the "Ain't Happenin'" position:
- The apparent pump (and dump) shenanigans (crazy rumors) noticed the last week or so, suggesting smart money is slowly (and increasingly) exiting.
- Icahn can't win the proxy fight - Icahn was suppose to force Microsoft back to the table to do the deal. He could only do that if he "seemingly could" win the proxy, which now appears an impossibility.
- Yang and Ballmer know Icahn can't win and therefore don't have to deal with him (or take his calls) - instead comfortably dismissing him as a neutered non-factor.
- Once Icahn accepts (he may already have) he can't win, he won't be long for the exits.
- Ballmer blinked first - Microsoft plays lousy poker. He removed any leverage to force Yang to a lower price. Further, he has compounded that newly inflicted weak position by making it even weaker with these almost daily all over the map, bizarre schizophrenic-like "deal alternatives", none of which pass muster after first glance. They are very poor attempts at desired (clever - not) breakthrough M&A negotiating tactics.
- Yang is sitting there watching and listening to Ballmer (panic) and gloatfully thinking $37, 38, 39....and not $36, 35, 34...
- Ballmer won't go above $34. And the way he's been ridiculed, his ego may not allow him to offer anything above $33. Meaning the separation price between Yang and Ballmer is getting larger not smaller.
- Yang & BOD will weather the Icahn BS (i.e. if Icahn even pursues the proxy fight, which my bet now is he won't) as well as the angst of institutional shareholders Crawford, Miller, etc.
- Yang does not want to sell and never has. His ally has been time and its working for him. Yahoo is his baby and he thinks he can organically grow the stock back to $50 or more...so he's looking for (any delaying tactics - the latest being annual meeting postponement) excuses and time to "not" sell. Ballmer and Icahn are making it very easy.
Bottom line, the facts are no longer compelling enough to support supporting the deal happening anytime soon, if at all.
I agere wit Henry that this week is the fourth quarter 2 minute drill in this Deal or No Deal game. At this point, IMO, I think you'll now see $22 before you see $35, and that $35 is 18 months in the offing, organically obtained under Yang's tutelage in the form of a still "independent", yet resurgent Yahoo (with a Goog connection).
Bottom line, I guess if this was television, Howie Mandel would agree with the facts outlined above and conclude too - "No Deal".
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Icahn and other corporate raiders are just opportunists who see an ideal arbitrage opportunity with very limited downside. They must really believe that YHOO's potential value is in the $30-35, regardless of whether MSFT buys them or they sign an ad deal with GOOG. That's the reason that they have bought substantial stakes. The strongest justification is that YHOO is the only strategic imperative for MSFT for getting the scale that they desperately need. So even if they walk again, it doesn't preclude them from returning to the table again, which should support YHOO stock in that scenario. Also Icahn bought options dated 2010, which means he is not concerned about the timing of the deal and is prepared to hold longer term if there is a delay in the resolution. Another reason might be that he doesn't believe a deal is going to get done within couple of months, and so decided to go longer term.
I also agree with the "weekend or bust" aspect of the current status of the deal because the sooner YHOO signs up with GOOG, sooner they can derive the financial benefits, which will improve their position in the proxy fight, which is likely to be after the earnings report for the current quarter. They are perhaps waiting for the categorical statement from MSFT, that they have "REALLY" moved on and are not interested in any kind of deal with YHOO. If MSFT issues this kind of statement soon, then YHOO will immediately sign up with GOOG and support its stock. If MSFT doesn't issue such a statement, then the status quo may continue for some more time as there is no urgency for YHOO to sign up with GOOG. However considering the beating that MSFT stock has taken since the day this deal was announced in end of Jan, and it seems to be getting worse, the pressure is on MSFT to make a final statement on the deal and prevent any further drop in its value. I'm sure the walksters are hoping for this as well. The stock market hates uncertainty more than anything else.
The odds above seem about right, except for the price I think. I expect the price to be around ~$35 with a significant component of value guarantee, if indeed MSFT and YHOO agree to a full acquisition. I guess its obvious that this is the worst nightmare for the walksters. It may also be perceived as negative by some of the trigger-happy GOOGsters, although long-term it would be great for GOOG because MSFT and YHOO together would sink much faster in the online waters due to the additional momentum and weight. The deal would be accretive in that sense. :-)
I never put any faith in MSFT's attempts to do a partial deal with YHOO, because if it was so difficult to come to terms on a full acquisition, imagine the difficulty of doing a partial deal. I think this was just a delaying tactic by MSFT to buy some more time, no matter what the sources say. Its much easier to do partial deals with willing partners. That's the reason its more likely with GOOG.
Let's see Vista is slower, has less drivers, supports less apps, is not respected or accepted by the business community, IT professionals or trade magazines - how does Ballmer define popular? Has any other MS OS had the special recognition of a class action suit?
Then there are his trolls who post things like - it runs fine on my 386 - you just need more memory. Or why doens't everyone just replace their older computers - I replaced my one PC that I bought 7 years ago and Vista seems to run at least as fast....
The off-topic post doesn't really call for an answer, but since Rav pretty much summed up current events and future predictions quite cleanly, I have to defend Vista - a little.
The first RCs sucked. The final version sucked. I still have to grant myself rights to files and folders although I am the administrator, and doing that still pisses me off. But the updates (SP1) really improved Vista. Faster, smoother, and totally more enjoyable than it once was; also better in many ways than XP is now.
And yes, you do need more memory. It's going to run like a car with a blown head gasket on less than 1 GB (minimum). You can also use ReadyBoost (insert a USB flash drive for extra memory) for a speed boost.
What I like about Vista besides interface (I've finally adjusted to how to find files and folders on Vista) is how it can keep up with me now better than XP can. I type fast and click fast and want everything fast - and on Vista every action gets me a faster response than it does now on XP.
Is Vista perfect? No. But I have no driver compatibilty issues and everything is runnning well on it. Even AOL doesn't slow it down as much as it slows down XP. (I don't use AOL, but I test it for my blog).
Maybe give it another look? The way I see it, you need more memory for basic programs you may really enjoy using anyway, like Photoshop and Firefox, so why not add it and try Vista, too? (I'm dual-booting it with XP to keep my options open).
And I used to knock Vista pretty hard on SAI and on my own blog so don't think I'm some MS sellout - not hardly (for instance, I can go on for an hour about what's wrong with IE, and nothing will ever change my mind - except a better version of it).
When Ballmer is asked about problems with Vista - he says it is the most popular Windows OS and ignores the question about the problem. When Bill is asked he says things like we are trying to improve Vista but quickly moves on to - the next thing from MS is going to be spectacular. He seems to have accepted what a collosal failure Vista is as an OS but Ballmer is too thick headed to get it or too egotistical to admit what a schmuck he is when it comes to Vista.
As for giving it another chance - I frequently am asked by clients to upgrade them to XP even if they have SP1 and plenty of memory (2 GIGs or more). Vista is just plain slow in a network environment - it is fine for running notepad and mediocre for running IE - not much good for other things like file transfers, copies, etc. Not zippy when it comes to most apps either. Run the benchmarks for yourself.
I have to admit although Vista sucks and we should all be put out of its misery. I used my MSDN to try out Windows Server 2008 as a desktop OS. - Runs MUCH MUCH MUCH faster than Vista even if you turn on the aero interface and most bells and whistles of Vista. I realize it is based on the Vista sp1 code but it is much much faster - which probably sounds ironic but if you run the benchmarks yourself on identical equipment you'll find it competes quite nicely with XP. My guess it is that it doesn't have the DRM baked into the code but that is just a guess - I'm not sure why it runs well and Vista sucks - it is just the way it is.
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