Ballmer to Microsofties: "Yahoo Announcement in Very Short Order"

Henry Blodget | May 1, 2008 1:03 PM

ballmerhands.jpgSteve Ballmer held a Town Hall conference call with Microsoft (MSFT) employees today--reported minute-by-minute by our Vas Sridharan.

Not surprisingly, the topic employees most wanted to talk about was Yahoo. Specifically, why on earth is Microsoft chasing that thing?

Steve's full answer paraphrased below. Here are the key points:

  • Nothing to announce today, but should know in "very short order" [suggests negotiations ongoing]
  • Won't pay a dime more than Yahoo's worth [but doesn't say what that number is]
  • Acknowledges Microsoft is way behind online, invokes Microsoft's previous come-from-behind victories.
  • Says Yahoo is "part of a strategy," not the strategy itself. [that's one way to spin it]
  • Says the world rooting for Microsoft [in this business, actually true. Fun and ironic]

Q: What is attractive about Yahoo!?

A: Steve Ballmer: We are absolutely 100% determined to build the most interesting position in the world in online advertising media and the kind of social connected social media experience. The future of the way people consume information is going to change in the next 10 years dramatically. We are absolutely committed to being the leading player. We are not today the leading player. We've got very talented bright people. But there are some structural things in the industry that make it hard to make rapid progress.

But it takes a lot of things for us to be there to be important not just in search but in this broader area. We are going to have as big an index as we're going to need to have in search. That's expensive and we're entirely committed to it...

We need to gain scale. The world is rooting for us. The world hopes that there's a very strong company that's not the number one guy. We're gong to work that strategy with Google, with Yahoo! or without Yahoo!.

Why buy Yahoo!?

It accelerates scale. Gets us more advertisers, gets us search. Yahoo’s not a strategy. It’s a part of a strategy. We’re interested in paying for it at some level and beyond that level we’re not willing to pay for it. I know EXACTLY what I think Yahoo is worth and I won’t go a dime above.

We missed the deadline but we’re in the process. I report nothing. I've got nothing to say today.

We’ve got basically the three big options in front of us. There’s the friendly deal, there’s an unfriendly deal, third path is simply to walk away. Given it’s just a part of a strategy – if neither of those look good, we walk away. It makes sense at the price we proposed and I think it’s a good deal for Yahoo shareholders. It’s a huge premium. It’s one of the largest valuations.

We oughta know something – we oughta announce something in very short order.

There’s nothing definitive to say today. We have a great plan and strategy and we have a long way to go. We are not number one and number one is a lot bigger than us. There may not be many people here that remember when we were a distant number 2 before. You gotta be willing to look outside of the box and Yahoo is $44 billion outside of our box. If Yahoo doesn’t happen there’s a number of other things we’ll look at.

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53 Comments

AD said:
Kenneth Hartog said:
TO me this statement is very bullish
1. He says he knows what he wants to pay. If he did not plan to raise his bid, he would say, "I am not going to pay a penny more than our current offer." This statement to me means that he is willing to pay more than he is currently offering.
2. "Yahoo Announcement in Very Short Order" means that they are working on the details. If they were planning to walk away, they would say nothing. This means they are negotiating and getting closer.
Kenneth Hartog said:
Disclosure. I own YHOO
Henry Blodget said:
Agree with the logic Kenneth. The common ground here is clearly $34-$35.
insider said:
Who breaks this stuff? That meeting was like an 2 hours ago...I was there.
Henry Blodget said:
So were we!
Kenneth Hartog said:
Thanks Henry,

Stock relatively significantly down since the meeting though. Looks like we're in the minority.
Henry Blodget said:
Yes...confused about that, actually. I think folks now assigning almost 50/50 probability to walking away (which I think is reasonable). Proxy seems remote at this point.
Kenneth Hartog said:
I disagree. I doubt they will walk away. If they are willing to spend $44 billion, why would they be willing to walk away. So hard to put %'s on stuff, BUT my opinion:
55% agreement around $32
40% Hostile
5% walk away

If all Yahoo has to do is nothing and MSFT walks away, what has all the hoopla been? Ballmer gets turned away by a company that does nothing, which is what YHOO has done? Doesn't sound to me like a real businessman's approach.
James said:
Seems like the best option is to short Microsoft
Kenneth Hartog said:
James,

I disagree. I think MSFT already is pricing in that it will buy YHOO and has fallen significantly since the bid was placed. At the time of the bid, I think, correct me if I am wrong, MSFT was around $33, it is now $29.10 in a strong market. Without the bid, assume it was still at $33. I think the MSFT investi\ors have already priced in a discount on the basis of getting YHOO. If they do get it, it should stay the same or go down moderately, say $.50, if they don't, it should go back in the low $30's in my opinion. I don't own MSFT, but do own YHOO.
watcher said:
Problem is we're dealing with a seasoned, businessman/madman, and an immature, self-centered, businessman. Ten years from now it will be like land in the Bahamas: "I bought Yahoo for only 50 billion dollars, ten years ago! Can you believe it?!!"
Neek said:
Ballmer's not walking.

He may bluff a walk, just to let the stock tank and teach current management to cut it while they're ahead.

Neek said:
And oh, watcher said it best.

Y!'s been in inexorable decline ever since GOOG's star started rising, and the only way they can prosper is with MS (and even NewsCorp in the mix, but only under a menage-a-trois with MS, not by itself).

Say what you will about Ballmer, but he's always been an astute businessman. Jerry's all-ego in there, not seeing how GOOG's piece of its cake will be far more next year than it is today, and futilely hoping for some fantasy land where they have a chance.
Alex Schleber (URL) said:
The key to why MSFT still doesn't get it is right in here:

"A: Steve Ballmer: We are absolutely 100% determined to build the most interesting position in the world in online advertising media **and the kind of social connected social media experience.** The future of the way people consume information is going to change in the next 10 years dramatically. We are absolutely committed to being the leading player. We are not today the leading player."

This totally reminds me of how Gates was rambling on in his 1995 book about the Internet. Their corporate speak belies their airs of "getting it".

That's why they've been so far behind on everything internet related, despite the reams of money spent, and all of the posturing. They don't get the Internet. Never have, and likely never will.

How is buying Yahoo going to set you up for "build[ing] the most interesting position in the world in online [...] media"?? The same company that some inside sources told me just canned a very innovative Web2.0/Social project a few months ago (a social-network-cum-wiki).

The same company that analyst Mark Mahaney of Citi in his TechCrunch interview just certified to have "clearly missed some major strategic moves, they missed the move towards social networks that you should have seen, arguably, Yahoo should have seen that. They’ve had some execution errors that Project Panama almost certainly, they missed one public deadline." asf.

DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

Google should be rejoicing if this deal goes through. Or if it doesn't...
Gordon said:
as a msft shareholder, i want msft to RUN, not walk away from this deal. there is no friggin way in hell that yahoo is worth $45 FRIGGIN BILLION.

yahoo shareholders can take it in the ass for all i care.
Gordon said:
p.s. is ballmer describing the size of yang's a$$hole in that picture?
dave said:
Assuming that the deal gets done at 34-35 dollars, how will msft stock react?
Marah Marie (URL) said:
Gordon. Chill. For Christ's sake.


They're just two stupid companies doing two stupid things (one is stupid to walk into this in a hostile position and expect the other to drip honey and toss roses at their overtures, the other is dragging it's heels...which actually, might not be so stupid).

As a long-suffering reader of your posts I feel it's to the point where your stress is quite palpable...
StopIt said:
Henry, I'm personally holding you responsible for pissing off Balmer thereby him keep tight lipped about the deal. If you can pick more gracious photos of him to post (maybe something with more hair), I bet he would have spilled the beans by now. Someone out there must have better photos of "The Balm". Anyone? Anyone??
RC said:
Interesting day today! Two things really stuck out from all the news stories. First - Ballmer said YHOO is a piece of the strategy but not the whole strategy. I interpret that to mean that MSFT has no intention of paying what some YHOO holders feel the company is worth but will pay an amount in the range they outlined. He is also sending the subtle message that Yang is treating YHOO like his baby and Yang's demands - outside of price - are unrealistic expectations. Second -and most intriguing from the WSJ tonight (For the record, I believe Ballmer will give the story to the WSJ first when, and now if, it happens) - Here is the exact verbiage from the WSJ tonight: He declined to indicate Microsoft's decision and wouldn't say when the company will make its decision public. "With the right circumstances it'll happen. Without the right circumstances it won't happen," he said. I interpret that to mean that MSFT is waiting for a specific move from YHOO. I believe the odds are that move will not be acceptance of the deal from YHOO but will be another Yang/YHOO effort to stonewall, delay or thwart the deal. At that point MSFT will launch what they have planned with the intent to make Yang and YHOO shareholders very uncomfortable. Of course, if YHOO somehow doesn't take that course of action and agrees to a deal, then we'll never know what MSFT was planning to do. It won't be long before this moves to the next stage. Either a "shotgun marriage" or "blood in the streets" IMHO.
Ouch said:
My head hurts...Get it done!
bill gates (URL) said:
"If Yahoo doesn’t happen there’s a number of other things we’ll look at."
Like what? AOL?
FlyManWalker said:
The topic we are going to discuss today is how a moron named Steve Ballmer tried to save his company two dollars a share while letting go the entire future down the toilet drain.

Ok, let's see.

They are going to go up to 33 not 35.

Steve Ballmer won't pay a dime more.

If he doesn't get his way he will walk away or go hostile.

If he goes hostile it will result in months of bickering, acrimony, fighting, uncertainty, brain drain from Yahoo, sowing of bad blood in Silicon Valley.

All this for 2 dollars a share.

Only a moron CEO would work things this way. Besides being incompetent, Steve Ballmer has proved to be a world class moron.

No wonder Google is eating their lunch. They are probably opening Champagne bottles at Google and rooting for Microsoft to take over Yahoo. Microsoft is already on a path to destruction. Now they will take Google's key competitor out of business.

This is a comedy and a tragedy. Watching this I feel like the way I felt after watching the movie Fargo.
FlyManWalker said:
This story is about the bean machine owned and used by a moron named Steve Ballmer.

He took out his bean machine up and tried to make a bid for a company called Yahoo. He typed in what he thought it would take to do the deal. The number was north of 40 billion. The bean machine went nuts. It told him Yahoo was worth half that. "???K you bean machine," Steve Ballmer said. "I am doing it for strategic reasons so Yahoo is worth that much!"

The time came when he had to offer more money. It would take a handful of dollars more. Steve Ballmer got out his bean machine. He typed in a few dollars more. The bean machine started smoking and shut itself off.

Stevie told Yahoo and the world. "I am not paying a dime more! I know exactly what you are worth!"

hidehoe (URL) said:
Ballmer reminds me of another CEO, Terry Semel (former Yahoo CEO in case anyone forgot). Nice man, but didn't have a clue about technology. Always looking to pick things up on the cheap.

Anyway, he could have bought Facebook for 1.5 billion, but was only willing pay 900 million. The deal ended up not happening because Semel failed to see the value of Facebook.

Today, facebook is worth so much more, thanks to msft's investment in the company and growing user base. The point is, if Yahoo had the balls to acquire Facebook, they would have been in a stronger position today. Yahoo is now pathetic, resorted to begging Google for a deal (what a slap in the face it must be for Yahoo employees).

Ballmer appears to be making the same mistake haggling over a few bucks per share. I know it's a lot of dollars, but if your company's strategy depend on having Yahoo, the prudent thing is to go for it. All the money they're spending now will be returned in short order. The combination of yhoo and msft would seriously challenge google. In the end, I think a yhoo-msft combo would win over goog. If not for anything else, msft just have so much money to play with.

Ballmer, here's a advice for you..go with your heart on this one.

Disclosure: I own both msft and yhoo shares.
Rav said:
I’m sick of all those comments which assume that YHOO will fall down hard, if MSFT walks away. If MSFT walks they will be the only losers. YHOO will immediately announce a deal with GOOG and regain whatever value it loses. It is really the ace of trumps in its hand.

I’m sure the game theorists at GOOG have analyzed all possible scenerios and will structure the YHOO-GOOG deal in such a way that any anti-trust concerns would be addressed and dealt with in advance.

Based on GOOG’s success in completing DCLK acquisition and opening up C-block wireless by bidding, I have confidence that GOOG will come out a big winner from this imbroglio.

If MSFT doesn’t bid to win a friendly YHOO deal, its internet dreams are toast and if it does bid to win ($37+), then its stock will bleed. A short-term bleed might be acceptable by shareholders, if it leads to long-term growth. Also, I agree with hidehoe's point. I would like to add that in internet space, "time is of essence". Its not a good place to nickel and dime. MSFT should learn from GOOG's DCLK bid and be ready to pay big bucks, if they really want the deal to close.

People who suggest that they go hostile are either wall-street types who don’t understand how innovation works in silicon valley or are short-term YHOO buyers hoping to make a quick buck. Remember that MSFT is bidding for the hearts, minds and brains of YHOO, not just the physical assets or the shell of the company.

Another possibility that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere, in case of a hostile MSFT bid is that the current YHOO management may sell off its Asian assets and sell the remaining assets individually at premium prices, without any anti-trust issues. This would probably be a last resort, and may happen only if the current YHOO BOD is on the verge of losing shareholder vote. This is another thing for MSFT to consider if they plan on going hostile.

disclaimer: long GOOG and small long position in YHOO. No position in MSFT.
konalala said:
agree with hidehoe and rav.
ballmer, go head, get it whatever if you really think internet will be the blood of the future or simply walk away. no hangaround here.


Disclaimer: I have relative big positions on msft,yhoo and goog.

If msft buys yhoo. I will buy msft more if msft price down with some kind of long term protection as long term holding.

If msft walks away, I would sell msft with a quick gain and possible short msft if it is high enough. If yhoo goes down,buy more yahoo.


anyway, will keep goog.



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