Apple's 3G iPhone Coming This Week? No.

Dan Frommer | May 12, 2008 1:30 PM

Apple's 8-gig and 16-gig iPhones are out of stock at apple.com and at some retail stores. TechCrunch takes this to mean that we "might be seeing a next-gen iPhone in the next few days." Engadget Mobile, meanwhile, wonders if Apple's 3G iPhone "is a whole heck of a lot closer than we could've imagined."

No, it's not.

We don't know for sure why Apple doesn't have any iPhones in stock, but we imagine it's related to the same supply issues that the company had last quarter.

We continue to think that Apple will introduce its 3G iPhone at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference early next month, and will begin shipping them in late June.

Why then and not now?

- Apple's "iPhone 2.0" software update, including support for third-party apps and corporate email, rolls out in June. It makes sense for new iPhones to go on sale around the same time the new software becomes available.

- Before Apple can start selling a 3G iPhone in the U.S., it needs to be approved by the FCC. And as of 10:45 this morning, the FCC hasn't approved any new iPhones. Last year, the FCC approved iPhone 1.0 on May 17. It didn't go on sale until June 29 -- 43 days later. We expect to see FCC approval for the 3G iPhone sooner than later, but we don't expect the phone to start selling for a few weeks (or longer) after it's approved by the Feds.

- AT&T (T) has requested its employees not to take vacations from mid-June to mid-July. We assume this is to be able to handle the bigger-than-usual crowds that a new iPhone will bring to AT&T stores, customer service, etc. If the iPhone were to go on sale much sooner, we don't think AT&T would have made this request.

- We still think Apple and its carrier partners will continue to sell the current iPhone as a cheaper alternative to the new, 3G iPhone. Which would require keeping the current iPhone in stock, too.

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31 Comments

Peter said:

May. 12, 3:06 PM

I don't necessarily disagree with you regarding the arrival time of an iPhone. However, the FCC thing is, was, and always has been a smokescreen.

The FCC has ways for information to be kept confidential which Apple could use.

So just because you haven't seen an FCC Filing doesn't mean that there isn't one. It just means that the information is not available.

Also, Apple could roll out iPhone 2.0 software early. It's their deadline--they can do what they want.

mark said:

May. 12, 4:07 PM

I too think that a 2.5G iPhone will continue to be sold, but I think its form factor and features will change. Thus, the current models have been end-of-lifed, and sold at a discount in Europe.

The new version of the 2.5G iPhone may become available on June 9th, with the 3G iPhone available on June 27th.

Ted T. said:

May. 12, 4:19 PM

I seriously doubt Apple will go on selling an older model at a lower price. They've never done it with any iPod. They'd sooner come up with a cheaper "iPhone Nano" than sell older iPhones.

I too suspect the iPhone 3G being released in June, but your reasons are mostly bogus. 2.0 software is probably not required for the 3G iPhone (or they could use a pre-release version), the poster aboove covered the FCC.

Dan Frommer said:

May. 12, 5:03 PM

Peter, what's a smokescreen about the FCC timing? I'm not saying you're wrong, just not sure what you're talking about. Do you have any details on what the FCC can keep confidential? Will the FCC withhold an approval filing?

Ted T., Apple *has* historically kept some older models alive with lower prices. When iPods with color screens were introduced, they kept the black-and-white ones there for a long time. Not every line gets remade every time there's an update to one model.

That said, adding 3G to a phone is not much more expensive than keeping EDGE. Wonder if AT&T would prefer all new iPhones to use 3G network (if more efficient/cost effective) than keeping some on EDGE.

Dan Frommer said:

May. 12, 5:05 PM

Ted T., never suggested iPhone 2.0 is required for 3G iPhone. But would be a bit silly to ship 3G iPhone weeks ahead of software update, or to keep 2.0 software away from existing iPhone owners for too long. So no reason not to do them simultaneously.

David Dugan (URL) said:

May. 12, 5:30 PM

Dan, it's my understanding that the 3G iPhone will retain its 2.5G EDGE radio as well (the most recent iPhone SDK shows signs of a 3G/EDGE toggle switch). Considering the comparatively sparse 3G coverage in the US, this would only be prudent (less of an issue in the old world).

So continuing to offer the 1st-gen iPhone would be unnecessarily confusing to consumers (whereas the BW/color iPod thing made more sense).

I do agree with you guys, however, that the recent outages of iPhones in the US and UK are most likely due to simply underestimating the demand for this quarter (or more accurately, overestimating the quarter-to-quarter drop off), and Apple has said as much on the record. You guys at SAI seem to be the lone voice of reason on this issue, while everyone else is expecting the 3G iPhone within days.

It would be uncharacteristically foolish for Apple to ship the "iPhone 2.0" hardware without the "iPhone 2.0" software.

David Dugan (URL) said:

May. 12, 5:33 PM

As a followup, I would expect the switching between 3G/EDGE/WiFi to be as seamless and invisible as the switching currently is between Wifi/EDGE on the first-gen iPhone. That kind of robust multi-protocol networking is a perfect example of the advantages of OS X versus the other mobile platforms.

LanPhantom said:

May. 12, 8:30 PM

Great job Scooby! You guys don't really pay much attention to Apple marketing. This is very typical of Apple, creating a strong demand then opening the flood gates. I guarantee that Apple will not release it early, it doesn’t make sense. This is a very huge deal for both Apple and AT&T. They aren’t going to waste the hype by release it “quietly under the radar” or with the OLD software still on it. No way, not a chance. With all the Apple stores sold out of phones, they have the MAC heads drooling at the proposition of this new device, AND it gives those who were waiting to buy 3G a little encouragement to keep holding on, it’ll be here soon.
I’m sure at the WWDC Steve will provide us with an update to the iPhone sales stats and the overwhelming success of the new device worldwide. He will focus on the SDK and more cool examples of what other companies are doing with this new platform. Then at the end, he’ll report that there is just one more thing, and announce an update to it, and go over all the details of is and state that it will go on sale worldwide June 15 (one week after the WWDC opens).
Now doesn’t that make more sense? And as for a “New device” other than the iPhone update, I doubt it. I’ll go along and agree while it would be super cool, it’s just to early for a new product, maybe at MACWorld 09 but I think the WWDC 08 is going to be reserved for the developers (hence the name) and the iPhone update.
I may be wrong, but that’s rare.

Paco Arango said:

May. 13, 4:43 AM

I believe Apple will announce the new iphone earlier than expected. Here is why: They are the only ones that can keep a secret. Too many countries will release it in June, Spain, Australia etc. They must have knowledge of what is coming. Jobs will have to announce, not release, the 3G.

DP said:

May. 13, 11:49 AM

I don't know, I would tend to agree with you but today is May 13 and you're saying no new iPhone until late June. Is Apple really going to go six weeks with essentially zero iphone sales?

DP said:

May. 13, 11:52 AM

I don't know, I would tend to agree with you but today is May 13 and you're saying no new iPhone until late June. Is Apple really going to go six weeks with essentially zero iphone sales?

TC said:

May. 14, 12:16 AM

I don't know why every Apple store all out of stock the Iphone. The Apple company stop producing the Iphone or why? It makes me mad because the way you guys do it.

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Apple's 3G iPhone Coming This Week? No.

Dan Frommer | May 12, 2008 1:30 PM

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