Yahoo-Microsoft: Playing the Yahoo Earnings Chess Game

Henry Blodget | April 20, 2008 8:16 AM

jerryyang5.jpgThis week is crucial for the Yahoo-Microsoft takeover battle. Yahoo's earnings report will likely shift the balance of negotiating power one way or the other--forcing Yahoo (YHOO) into a fire sale or forcing Microsoft (MSFT) to raise its price or abandon its pursuit of the company.

Here are some of the possible moves and counter-moves:

ACTION 1: Yahoo blows Q1 and/or provides a disappointing outlook. "Blowing Q1" in this scenario would mean delivering revenue or earnings in the lower half of the forecasted range OR hitting the high-end of the range but not raising guidance for the full year. This is unlikely, in our opinion. If Yahoo's business has deteriorated, the board would be nuts not to already be negotiating seriously with Microsoft.

OUTCOME: Yahoo's shareholders scream bloody murder, Yahoo's board capitulates under the threat of a Microsoft bid cut, and a deal is struck relatively rapidly at the original bid (which is currently worth $29.76, according to our bid calculator)

ACTION 2: Yahoo delivers a strong Q1 and raises guidance appropriately. This iikely, in our opinion. Again, if Yahoo isn't in a position to deliver this, it should have started negotiating months ago.

OUTCOMES:

  • Yahoo will make a credible argument that it is worth more than when Microsoft made its bid and therefore deserves a higher bid. Lots of Yahoo shareholders, the press, the public, and common sense will support this view, especially because so many stories circulated after the original bid saying that Microsoft had been prepared to pay $35, but had lowered its bid after Yahoo's weak Q4.
  • Microsoft will argue on background that Yahoo only made the quarter by burning the furniture and that Q2 will be weak. Microsoft will say that its valuation of Yahoo wasn't based on one quarter or year and that the increase in outlook doesn't change "full and fair value."
  • No one will really buy Microsoft's argument. Everyone will now think a price increase is only fair--especially if, as is also possible, Yahoo announces a search deal with Google.
  • On Wednesday, after the earnings report, Yahoo will tell Microsoft it is happy to negotiate if Microsoft raises its bid, thus not appearing to blow off Microsoft's Saturday deadline.

NEXT MOVES: Assuming scenario 2 is what happens, as we expect it will, the next move will be Microsoft's. In our opinion, Microsoft will have several options:

  • Do nothing, continue to wait. Unlikely. By threatening Yahoo two weeks ago, Microsoft has taken "the waiting game" off the table. If Microsoft doesn't act on its own Saturday deadline, it will be announcing to Yahoo and the world that nothing it says should be taken seriously.
  • File slate of directors and exchange offer and prepare for proxy fight. Possible, but not the most likely option. If Yahoo has a strong earnings call, the proxy-fight route will be more challenging. Some Yahoo shareholders will hold out for a price increase, and when this voting power is combined with that of Jerry, Dave, and other insiders, winning a proxy vote at the current bid or lower will not be a given. It will also cost Microsoft at least another four months, during which time Yahoo talent will continue to leave and Microsoft will fall farther behind. A Yahoo-Google search deal could also be implemented during this period, which could give Yahoo shareholders even more cause to demand a price increase.
  • Walk away. Possible, but a last resort. We think this will only happen after a private price increase (see below).
  • Raise bid, publicly or private. A public price increase is unlikely but we think private is the most-likely outcome. We think Microsoft will authorize its bankers to tell Yahoo's bankers that, thanks to Yahoo's strong performance in the quarter, Microsoft is now willing to pay more--if Yahoo comes to the table and a deal agreement can be reached rapidly. We suspect this implied increase will be at least a few dollars a share ($1 or $2 is almost an insult). We suspect Yahoo will take this seriously and will sit down and begin to try to hammer out a deal.

Again, we think a strong Yahoo earnings report changes the power-balance here, especially given the overhanging threat of a Yahoo-Google search deal. We think it will be tougher for Microsoft to fight and win a proxy battle, and we think the four months of uncertainty and wasted time necessary are a major discincentive to go this route. A strong Yahoo earnings report will give Microsoft a good, face-saving excuse to raise its price, and we expect it will will privately go this route. We think a strong earnings report effectively takes a Microsoft price cut off the table.

 

 

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32 Comments

Gordon said:
maybe if YHOO earnings are really good, MSFT will be forced to walk? as a long suffering MSFT shareholder, i can only hope so.
clickbot said:
Meanwhile, the new my.yahoo is still slow (even slower than google's version).

Their new email is still slow.

Their "ecommerce platform" has not been improved significantly since the 70's (okay, I'm exaggerating, since they bought it from Paul Graham). Has anyone here ever heard of RTML?

And I've noticed their search engine is deteriorating a bit (it's not indexing deeply on "recent" news).

Brilliant.
Simon said:

Henry

I totally agree with senario 2

It seems logical that they had a good quarter and will raise guidance... why wouldnt they raise guidance?! Who cares if they do not meet those goals.. they need to paint a rosy picture and lay out best case senarios and push the bar up no matter what... even if it means pushing or stretching the true future expectations...

My problem is.. I cant understand why the stock stuck 28s?? There is little to no downside I can see (even if offer is pulled which is remote I dont see it dropping below 24-25 because at that price the PE guys, News Corp.. etc may have some renewed interest).. not sure why it isnt being bought up to atleast 29.50 -30 at this point

Also.. Another thing lost here is the dissapointment that there wasnt a foreign bid. What happened to the asian interest? Yahoo Japan/ Softbank/ Alibaba group.... couldnt they make a run?

Heres to a great Q1/ raising guidance and ending this at $35/share!

SP
Gordon said:
Why does Yang want all of these headaches? if i was him, i'd be sitting on the beach right now on my own private island sipping cocktails with playboy models. i guess that's why i'm not a billionaire? or perhaps i'm just not lucky?
jackson poll said:
Henry -Good analysis. If yahoo blows Q1 after re-arranging the deck chairs, the board should sell immediately or shareholders should sue. My guess is that they will absolutely hit Q1, give good guidance and posture. Can we believe them however. Jerry was not a good ceo the first time around (Koogle and Mallett made the company work) and he's been a disaster this go round. Sue Decker has not proven herself internally or externally (chaos is the word i hear most often when describing how things are going inside yahoo).

This campaign is looking a lot like the democratic nominating process. It's time for a conclusion. A MSFT-Y combo is a powerful one and should happen at an acceptable price ($32.50?). ONe interesting twist -- could msft be using this action to actually lure news corp/myspace into a fictional deal and then drop their bid for yahoo and go after facebook. A msft-myspace-facebook combo could be extremely powerful and blow yahoo-aol away.

Painting the picture.
Jo said:
Remember Webvan.com, Waterworld the movie?

It's impossible to create another yahoo with billion dollar fund: The cost of labor, new building, transport foods, hire new talent, etc...

Yahoo have Flickr and more products. Would you give away all your toys and keep billion dollar?

No.... It's too risky. Like dodgeball.com; Two founders quit Google. Crowley said, "It's really disappointing to leave Dodgeball behind, but I'm looking forward to getting back to work on other projects."

Now, They couldn't hardly create another startup. It takes luck and time.




Vic said:
In Yahoo, as in Google, the CEO has many levers he can pull to make sure they do not "miss". Do not doubt that Jerry Yang will pull every one of these levers to ensure that Yahoo does not miss this quarter. His negotiating position will be greatly diminished with the perception that they cannot survive on their own. Panama, has, by all accounts, been a terrible failure, yet Yang still has it in his power to eek out enough cash to stave MSFT for a longer duration that Ballmer expects.

Steve (URL) said:
everyone knows Jerry can jack the earnings to look great this quarter. So why again is that so important?? Completely escapes me. Expected fake event = significant??

but then again, we have to ask the question: "what would Joe Blow do?" what would he think?

(more popcorn please)
broadcast.com (URL) said:
"Panama, has, by all accounts, been a terrible failure, yet Yang still has it in his power to eek out enough cash to stave MSFT for a longer duration that Ballmer expects."

Yeah I'm not exactly sure why Overture hasn't been as successful as Adsense/Adwords but I suspect that our company has way too many millionaires. Why rock the boat when you're sitting pretty no matter what the Titanic does?
MisterX said:
Henry, you say that it's possible that MSFT walks away from the deal. I agree, but I have been wondering all along, why on Earth would MSFT want to buy YHOO and pay $40B+ for it? It's the eyeballs, sure, and some products, agreed. But at this rate, couldn't they possibly BUY the eyeballs and products somewhere else (e.g. spend $$$ on marketing, aquire talent at $$$ rates). This would take a bit longer, sure, but would cost not nearly as much as a YHOO acquisition.

Could you shed some light, please?
joeblow said:
Steve,

Regardless of what tactical action I'd take were I Yahoo, it wouldn't involve burning the furniture for the quarter.

The quarter would be something I'd have not the slightest reservations about Buffet and Munger going over publicly and commenting about... line-for-line.

It would be straight-up and clean unadulterated truth.
--
joeblow can do more with truth than most can do with lies.
joeblow said:
**The below is entirely my own speculation. I have no insights into this matter any more than any other uninformed speculator**

Sorkin,

If it's all cash and not higher than $31.50 (and 31.51 i-s higher), I'll print out this topic page and eat it... On the honor system, I'll eat it.

--joeblow
joeblow said:
I love operatic arias as many of you might know by now. But I also love great music of any type, and I especially love the Irish Tenors, found here:

http://www.amazon.ca/Irish-Tenors-McNamara-McDermott-Kearns/dp/B00000I7I1

I want you all to know… I do love that trio of Irish Tenors, I swear I do. There’s one song I’d almost buy the whole album for, just one of the songs on the album… it’s “I’ll take you home again, Kathleen.” sung by Ronan Tynan. It reminds me of the first time I fell in love, with a beautiful 16-year-old. Her name wasn’t Kathleen, but I don’t care. I can substitute the name easily enough. To me she’s Kathleen.

God, it’s beautiful!… I do love it so!… That boy, Tynan, he can siiii-n-g-gg-g!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VppOHt_FMDU

You know… I almost bought it, but then I found it on YouTube and now I don’t have to buy it. The only thing left is to say thanks to Bill. See, Bill joined September 28, 2007 and Bill says he’s 63… but that’s all Bill will tell us:

http://www.youtube.com/user/bmcneese45a

Gee, I’d like to say thanks to Bill for uploading this song so I can burn it for free and pass it out to all my friends that like Tynan as much as I do, but I don’t see an address or phone number for Bill. Anyway, I’ll try to contact Bill here.
--
Hey, thanks again, Bill. Otherwise I’d have had to buy it… and, you know… those rascals at Amazon want $20.99 for it!… Can you imagine that?… They actually expect to get 20.99 for it when you have been so kind as to put parts of it up on YouTube for nothing. Thanks, Bill… you’re a real sweetheart. I didn’t know you owned the rights to it or that you’d worked out a private arrangement with the owners of the rights to the music, but, heck, since you evidently did, that’s all that matters to me. I think it’s a bargain… one of the best I’ve ever seen. You can’t beat free, Bill. I certainly don’t think you can beat free anywhere at all.

Much obliged.
joeblow said:
Here, enjoy while joeblow sips a bit of contentment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EJPFEX-DCY&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3clZUq8P5s&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMfiSUMiBhg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALodesyABIE&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne1vatfAYqA&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cscPrIK6xh8&feature=related

joeblow said:
BTW, Henry... I'm runnin' wild and free. I've taken over. I told you I would.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7W3XC7a4aU&feature=related
joeblow said:
p.s. - I didn't mean to forget you folks in Congress that made it all possible.

So, here's a big shout-out to all you fine girls and boys and a super thank you for Article 512 of the D.M.C.A.

What with taxes and pigs-at-the-trough government spending, it's nice when you kick in ever so often with a trendy little piece of prime legislative excellence. Saved me a lot of money... and it's going to save me even more during the rest of my l-i-f-e-t-i-m-e.

I must tell you... If there's anything I enjoy better than beautiful at-you-command music, it'd have to be gettin' it for free.

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