Microsoft Gives Yahoo Ultimatum: Sign Deal In 3 Weeks Or We Cut Bid
ANALYSIS: In this ultimatum Microsoft makes a compelling case that Yahoo's board is violating its fiduciary duty to shareholders by not even engaging with Microsoft. This, combined with the threat of a bid cut, will likely prompt Yahoo shareholders to turn up the heat on Yahoo's board and management. It will also likely prompt Yahoo's board to do some real soul-searching, in which the directors ask themselves again whether they really want to continue down this path.
Given Microsoft's clear warning and advance notice of a bid cut, Yahoo's board is presumably risking significant legal liability if it refuses to even engage with Microsoft. As Ballmer makes clear, Yahoo has moved heaven and earth to try to construct any alternative BUT Microsoft, and it would be easy to make the case that Yahoo's obstinance here is motivated by something other than shareholder interest.
Bottom line, we think Microsoft has played this brilliantly. We think Yahoo now has almost no choice but to come to the negotiating table. The only escape hatch we can imagine is if Yahoo can immediately release the results of a banner Q1 and raise its outlook for the rest of the year. This would bolster its argument that it is worth more and at least allow it to enter negotiations from a position of strength.
Unless Yahoo had a strong first quarter, we also think that, having forced Yahoo's hand, Microsoft is less likely to throw Yahoo a $3-$4/share bone at the 11th hour (which we think it would have if Yahoo had voluntarily sat down). Such an increase from the current bid value is still conceivable, but we think it becomes less and less likely the more hostile this negotiation gets.
ULIMATUM: Microsoft (MSFT) struck while yesterday's propaganda campaign was hot, issuing a direct ultimatum to Yahoo (YHOO): The ultimatum came in the form of a letter from Steve Ballmer to Yahoo's board, and the message was this: Sign merger agreement in three weeks, or we will cut bid and go directly to shareholders.
If we have not concluded an agreement within the next three weeks, we will be compelled to take our case directly to your shareholders, including the initiation of a proxy contest to elect an alternative slate of directors for the Yahoo! board. The substantial premium reflected in our initial proposal anticipated a friendly transaction with you. If we are forced to take an offer directly to your shareholders, that action will have an undesirable impact on the value of your company from our perspective which will be reflected in the terms of our proposal.
Other nuggets in this Saturday afternoon missile attack:
Our goal in making such a generous offer [$31/share] was to create the basis for a speedy and ultimately friendly transaction. Despite this, the pace of the last two months has been anything but speedy.
Translation: In the last two months you have tried to find an escape route by talking to every conceivable white knight in the industry, pitching a dreamy growth plan to shareholders, and trying to ignore us to death. Your efforts have failed, and we're done being patient.
While there has been some limited interaction between management of our two companies, there has been no meaningful negotiation to conclude an agreement. We understand that you have been meeting to consider and assess your alternatives, including alternative transactions with others in the industry, but we've seen no indication that you have authorized Yahoo! management to negotiate with Microsoft.
Translation: Dear Yahoo shareholders: The board of directors of Yahoo, Inc., is violating its fiduciary duty to you. Over the past two months, they have rushed hat in hand to every to every organization capable of offering any sort of "alternative transaction" in an emotional, irrational quest to avoid selling to Microsoft. How illogical and un-fiduciary is the behavior of Yahoo's board? They haven't even allowed Yahoo management to negotiate with us. If this deal falls through and Yahoo's stock drops to $17, let there be no confusion about who you should sue.
During these two months of inactivity, the Internet has continued to march on, while the public equity markets and overall economic conditions have weakened considerably, both in general and for other Internet-focused companies in particular. At the same time, public indicators suggest that Yahoo!'s search and page view shares have declined. Finally, you have adopted new plans at the company that have made any change of control more costly.
Translation: Go ahead and jawbone about your "growth plan" and "strategic alternatives" and "significant undervaluation." In part due to your own behavior and in part due to market conditions, you're worth less today than you were when we offered you $31 two months ago.
By any fair measure, the large premium we offered in January is even more significant today. We believe that the majority of your shareholders share this assessment, even after reviewing your public disclosures relating to your future prospects.
Translation: Over the past month, you have jetted around the country pitching your Microsoft-alternative growth plan to your shareholders, but they haven't bought it. How do we know? Because your shareholders are our shareholders. We think the majority of your shareholders--enough to get all of you fired--support us, not you.
It is unfortunate that by choosing not to enter into substantive negotiations with us, you have failed to give due consideration to a transaction that has tremendous benefits for Yahoo!'s shareholders and employees. We think it is critically important not to let this window of opportunity pass.
Translation: Enough already.
See Also: What That "Microsoft Evaluating Yahoo Offer" Stuff Was About--And What Microsoft Will Do Next
have to hand it out to Y! to have stuck a finger right into SB's nose. I guess if the Y! board has come this far, do they really care if an alternative board is nominated and they get the sack .. i mean.. excluding the option of getting sued, do they have any downside at all.
Looks like MSFT is the looser over here .. trying to winge and wine their way to winning yahoo over.
i am assuming even microsofties are embarassed with the way their company is behaving.
I read in the Crain's New York that their Right Media division was having some significant problems around inaccurate reporting on behalf of their publisher clients and these publishers were having to refund significant amounts of money back to advertisers. (see the article: Right Media's Growing Pains Hurt Clients, March 9th 2008). As Yahoo is most likely the largest publisher on the "exchange", its probable that they too face major refunds to advertisers.
I read in Crain's New York that their Right Media division was having some significant problems around inaccurate reporting on behalf of their publisher clients and these publishers were having to refund significant amounts of money back to advertisers. (see the article: Right Media's Growing Pains Hurt Clients, March 9th 2008). As Yahoo is most likely the largest publisher on the "exchange", its probable that they too face major refunds to advertisers.
It also did not mention a higher offer, so the threat is meant to get YHOO to sit down with MSFT and seriously work out a deal.
MSFT becoming desperate????
I dont think so...
As I said on another article, MSFT has gotten Yahoo to cut off their leg (e.g. eliminated their growth options/resources via layoffs) to avoid a deal, and is now circling around the weakened prey...
MSFT can move a their own pace...
If MSFT is not becoming desperate, just drop the bid and walk a way. Why sent such a letter?
what is more evil (truly an interesting question), selling out to a company willing to pay a price above what the market thinks you are worth (that tends to win over time at what it does - methods aside, they win), or a bunch of execs potentially nuking the same company (and thus their employees) out of personal ego to not sell to the company willing to pay the price?
because the want the co - why walk away - MSFT is just not going to get played for a higher bid until they are sure the higher bid will end it, period - MSFT doesnt want a bunch of employees thinking they got screwed into working for msft, that does msft no good...
the reason tech buyouts dont work is because the assets are people not tangible goods...
in the valley MSFT could buy yahoo one day and have no employees the next...literally - hen big mbas and big co people who have never built anything try to do big deals they tend to not realize that, hence these deals fail (AOL+TWX)...that is why i think the deal will get done in a way that may make the execs pissed, but engineers happy and the deal will work out fine over the long run, MSFT will take care of engineers...
The eyeballs and users of YHOO are the real value to MSFT.
Frankly, there is not much high tech in Web. MSFT can handle it if 50% off YHOOs are gone, seriously.
i think of HP-CPQ and AOL-TWX......
ballmer please walk away! sometimes the best deal you make is the one you never do!
What is MSFT so worried about? What do they know about Y!'s Q1 numbers that they want to get this deal done before Y!'s results are out?
How Y! responds to the ultimatum will be telling...
A lot of people think this will tank yhoo Monday. However, did they not already decline the 31 offer. MSFT wants to negotiate with them, possibly for somewhere in between around 34, 35, IMO. It does not sound like they are expecting them to accept 31. Am I missing something here?
There is still value residing in reaching a friendly settlement that results in a full shipboard crew of cooperative yahoosters. It’ll never be truly friendly for Yang, but everybody knows that already and even he’ll eventually have to lay down his six-guns:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd0os8MoIkM
Too, you’re being a bit presumptive, given a failure to reach a definitive agreement with Yang, and then subsequently if MSFT were to launch a hostile tender… that it would necessarily be easy to bag Yahoo for the same or lesser value than currently proposed. Maybe yes, but probably no. And, so, you say the replaced board would kick-it then according to “worsening market conditions” at an even more favorable price to MSFT, or at the current offer which is under the 31 initial proposal?… you think? Well, I don’t think it’s that easy to sell yourself a company with a stacked board. That might take quite a bit of Jenga:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07CBlvrpZ5Y
…plus it means the new yaboardsters probably have to hire a consulting firm (along with the banker contingent they’ve already hired) to evaluate the proposal. Of course that means MSFT’s bankers can’t just play Jenga for you with the stacked board[s]. Now, all of a sudden, the board you stacked starts playing the fiduciary game all over again, plus the economy begins to zoom. Yahoo surprises on performance, and you’re looking at then trying to choke it down above 40-45. After a bit of that, pretty soon your head just starts spinnin’ and you get dizzy and want to puke.
See, Henry, if I feint my Queen into harms way, such that she might be taken in what would look like two moves I might not have recognized, and you, watching my cold eyes and perceiving I’m unaware of the blunder, elect to take the two moves and get the fat girl, and then you chuckle under your breath “fool,” then be aware that I might then hand you your next five moves, pre-written and listed in order, and then just as coldly watch you comply in a trail of five bloody squares to your King. I’m surprised Google hasn’t recognized this potential. Truly surprised – Yahoo’s search business is the Queen. One of the greatest chess games in history was won in just such a way... after a Queen sacrific.
Were it possible that Yahoo’s bankers could realize the short term potential that probably exists **right now** with Microsoft, and then c-o-n-v-i-n-c-e their own client of the same, my guess is that Yahoo’s best and brightest shot for wringing plus-31 out of MSFT in negotiations will probably pass them by during the upcoming week if ignored. Hearts will begin getting awfully hard as the date grows near to the 3-week deadline.
Let’s talk Jenga some more. I think (could be wrong) that formally beginning a hostile tender offer may require initiation of an application for multiple jurisdiction anti-trust approval, since at the moment you gain the shares you need to control Yahoo, you’ve hit Bingo. Microsoft didn’t indicate specifically in the letter today that they will begin a hostile tender offer. They didn’t exclude it, but just didn’t exactly list it. If you think so, quote the passage. I don’t think they’re going to be anxious to launch one, even if they nominate a slate in 3 weeks, until it’s absolutely clear to them that negotiations can not conclude this thing until much nearer to the annual meeting, possibly as late as mid-July. Why?
Because that gets Justice, Nellie and her Commissars, the Big Mouth States and Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, if not a half-dozen or more tech company barracuda circling the water smelling blood... Let's not forget that even the new Antimonopoly Law in China might get trotted out early for a trial run... They could practice shootin' hoops one-on-one with MSFT, haha! I didn’t forget the GOO-glee-ites, but just left them to last for the stark terror effect.
Getting Yahoo’s board, management and employees on ship first, and cooperating, would go a long way to helping the merged companies pursue regulatory approvals for the merger. Don’t think that’s not still, even now with the blistering propaganda, worth a sweetener. It’s like I’ve already said… it’s peanuts in MSFT’s pro-forma EBITDA future, just a speed bump.
They could put Bozo the Clown on the slate for all the difference it'd make to the shareholders. The board would just get dissolved anyway in a few months. Their coffee wouldn't get cold. If a tender is full-hostile then a nom-drop would be half-hostile. Ballmer’s just issued the second summons for Yang’s arrest. The full-hostile can wait for now and might still be avoided entirely.
Here's some potential nominees:
(entirely fictional, not referring to real persons, living or dead)
- Bozo, real name “Roe’bert Barun” (*that would be, uh, a French ‘bert)
- Dela Chance-Erecorte
- Howard S. “Ho” Stiel
- Mikro S. Offbascher - motto: (I did not campaign… I refuse this nomination and will not run… If elected I will not serve)
- Pykme Y. Donsha
- Keekum Alauf
- Bea L. Ze’Bub
- Kondra N. Decatur
- Cean Becee (just to add that special sense of urgency)
- Lita Gaycion (just to add another *special* sense of urgency)
The two alternates you could play toss the darts with the phone book and get 'em.
Seriously, MSFT would present a slate I'm sure of worthy, qualified and respected professional people in the industry... probably some that might ordinarily have found their way to the yaboardsters in another venue.
…It’d all be a landslide victory anyhow, by the time MSFT bids whatever it needs to in order to get the shareholders to vote them in at the annual meeting, if we all manage to live long enough to see one, which BTW is the reason Dela Chance-Erecorte was nominated.
…With what they’d said with added wit.
They’d leaked to us before the note,
…Before the one! That Ballmer wrote!
That “Time is on our side, you hear!”
…I figured then – It’s just for fear.
And now we know you can’t impugn
…The truth by playing silly tunes,
Cause Ballmer said – “Forget that chatter!”
…”We’re urgent now! – It’s all that matters!”
I love the Stones – I really do.
…The Pundinistas just got fooled.
I won’t say they are really dumb,
…Just prone to fall for any plumb,
Dropped out from deep and under cover
…From first one creep and then another,
Because they hide and use their knack
…To try to keep us in the black.
But now we know it wasn’t true.
…I never thought so. How ‘bout you?
--
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXc08mgcQ1Q
The accent slays me!… It’s too funny, but they’re good.
However, I think this is still suicide for Yahoo. Any significant change to the board composition (plus "good reason" for leaving, such as your job changes in any way) triggers the severance package for two years following the change. Employees are already leaving left and right without severance; you can be sure once it's activated the exodus will accelerate.
I posted here at the beginning of this saga, that this was an exceedingly brilliant move by Microsoft.
Bozo notified me today that he wanted to withdraw from nomination. Said there were already "enough clowns on the board" and he'd just feel insignificant. He's going to work for CNBC... says he wants to add a "new dimension of creativiity to the Silicon Valley Bureau."
He knows Carra though (heiress to the Peal fortune) and seconds your nomination.
So, I'm happy to announce that...
- Carra Peal Tunnel
...now joins the active list of board slate nominees set for April 26th. Let's all welcome Carra.
- Dela Chance-Erecorte
- Howard S. “Ho” Stiel
- Mikro S. Offbascher - motto: (I did not campaign… I refuse this nomination and will not run… If elected I will not serve)
- Pykme Y. Donsha
- Keekum Alauf
- Bea L. Ze’Bub
- Kondra N. Decatur
- Cean Becee (just to add that special sense of urgency)
- Lita Gaycion (just to add another *special* sense of urgency)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idESN0643688420080407?rpc=44
Just 7 words in that story are truly remarkable if we take them as an accurate depiction of Yahoo’s official attitude. Why?
Because the 7 words: “not opposed to a deal with Microsoft” echo so dramatically and resoundingly when one just steps back and reads them off the screen several times, letting the tongue slowly pronounce each syllable with the growing realization of what they mean.
A philosophical break in the ice field is what they mean… A huge berg has now cracked free, one thought for eternity to be locked away in solid continental ice, never to utter these 7 words. Of course floating the berg carefully out into open water and tugging it gently toward Redmond may still be quite difficult if not impossible for 31 or less, but the “should pay more than $31” part certainly doesn’t resemble anything like a hard core demand for 40.
I’m looking forward to reading the Yahoo missive that this refers to and scanning it intently for the sample of 7 words already referenced, just to look at it and see with my-own-two-eyes if they are linked in the same order and actually do represent Yahoo’s attitude about a merger with Microsoft.
And I’m also curious about what Yahoo will present in the letter as a rebuttal to Ballmer’s claim that Yahoo’s business had deteriorated.
In the meantime, here’s an interesting press release Yahoo has just made along with the link found within it to a demonstration of their new Advertising Management Platform:
http://yhoo.client.shareholder.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?&ReleaseID=303352
http://advertising.yahoo.com/amp/
if those words (or something resembling them) are in the YHOO rebuttal, there is absolutely no reason for Steve & Jer to grab a beer on Murphy Street and see what happens.
yeah, i'm way long YHOO, but after the last conference call i lost all hope. all YHOO base are belong to MSFT now. it's time.
those seven words (not even dirty, mind you) would be the first sign of a thawing of the YHOO intransigence.
if those words (or something resembling them) are in the YHOO rebuttal, there is absolutely no reason for Steve & Jer to grab a beer on Murphy Street and see what happens.
yeah, i'm way long YHOO, but after the last conference call i lost all hope. all YHOO base are belong to MSFT now. it's time.
those seven words (not even dirty, mind you) would be the first sign of a thawing of the YHOO intransigence.
if those words (or something resembling them) are in the YHOO rebuttal, there is absolutely no reason for Steve & Jer to grab a beer on Murphy Street and see what happens.
yeah, i'm way long YHOO, but after the last conference call i lost all hope. all YHOO base are belong to MSFT now. it's time.
those seven words (not even dirty, mind you) would be the first sign of a thawing of the YHOO intransigence.
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