Google Beats Reduced Estimates, Stock Flies
Gross revenue exactly in line with consensus--$5.2 billion, up 42%. Net revenue $3.7 billion, slightly ahead of consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $4.84 blew away consensus of $4.52.
The US business did decelerate materially: from 40% in Q4 to 30% in Q1--far from a disaster, but enough to justify some of the mid-quarter concern (If estimates hadn't come down, Google would have missed them). Paid clicks also continued rapid deceleration, from 45% in Q3 to 30% in Q4 to 20% this quarter. Free cash flow dropped sequentially on shockingly high capital expenditures of $842 million (where on earth is this money going?) If Google ever starts to really rein in CAPEX, the stock should soar.
Doubleclick only contributed to two weeks of the quarter: immaterial to revenue and slightly dilutive to earnings. Google talked a lot more about the display opportunity: It intends to rapidly become the biggest display platform in the world. That said, the company still appears reluctant to put display ads on its own Google.com property (which would be an immediate, huge boost to bottom line).
Bottom line: Deceleration continues, which will keep a lid on multiple expansion. Stock will likely settle in around 25X-30X free cash flow. From a high level, though, the company's performance remains nothing short of extraordinary.
Release
Webcast (1:30PM / 4:30PM)
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
CONFERENCE CALL NOTES
Eric: Strong quarter, well-positioned regardless of business environment. Ads showing transformative effects. Paid click growth higher than had been speculated by third parties. (Gets the dig in early). Quality improving. Fewer but much better ads. More and more flexibility control in hands of advertisers. DoubleClick has been added, allows much more comprehensive solution.
Apps: Working to build out whole new online experience. Salesforce allows integration for enterprise.
George: Results include DoubleClick. Immaterial to revenue and slightly dilutive...
Paid clicks... up 20% y/y. "On google.com in US remains healthy" (ie., COMSCORE IS FULL OF IT). International also strong.
Google's own hiring has slowed dramatically: 800 in Q1. 10% of DoubleClick laid off in early April. Another 15% expected to leave. These headcount reductions apply only to US and don't include divestitures. So far, no headcount reductions intl.
Operating margin increased sequentially, which reverses trend. This is good signs.
$842 million CAPEX. IT infrastructure, data center, networking equipment. This is shockingly high. Free cash flow nearly $1 billion, but down sequentially. When will Google finally be able to scale back CAPEX?
Sergey: Huge improvements in search. Yawn.
Larry: Ads and applications. AdSense improvements. Yawn. AdWords: conversion optimizer....customer conversion rather than clicks. Analytics: added industry benchmarking.
YouTube: 10 hours of video uploaded every minute. In-video ads great adoption, customers increasing size. Also launched Adsense for video...perform well, much better than banner ads.
DoubleClick...we're working on combining ad networks. Huge opportunities there.
Apps: Google Sites, offline docs--allows folks to run offline. Very excited about Salesforce partnership...integrated, seamless.
Culture: Fortune's best place to work two years in a row.
Q&A:
CFO search: George still here. No offers yet. Good candidates.
DoubleClick: What going to do? Omid's answer largely content free. Integrating YouTube into the network.
We will become world's largest display publisher. 90% of our pages can handle display ads. [THIS IS BIG STATEMENT]. Can integrate video, search, display, Feedburner, etc.
Display model--on your own pages? YouTube, yes. Haven't made decision on other sites. No specific plans. We're making progress in our network. Jonathan: Now that have DoubleClick, we can integrate DART for advertisers...
MACRO ECONOMY IMPACT: Eric: We have looked at it really carefully, and we do not see an impact at this time. Also looked at what would happen...we think we're well-positioned. Does well in most scenarios.
Quality improvements: Fewer hit quarter than usual, because more of them came late in quarter. Biggest ones are the landing page quality improvements. Also some policy changes: Users always know where they end up when clicking. Automatic matching beta test...that is relatively modest. We often don't know improvement very short term.
Mobile Search: Anecdotally... In high-end markets like Japan, mobile search and ads work very well. Nothing to dissuade that it's worse than desktop. In US and Europe...will increasingly see greater volume, usage, and conversion. Big challenge: screens small. But have much more relevant and timely info--location, etc.
Paid Clicks--Still Lots of deceleration: We look at this as a quality issue. If we improve quality, aggregate clicks will grow (as will price). Model of staying focused on quality will work. [AGREE WHOLEHEARTEDLY]
Seasonality: Eric says hard to say it's changing. There is a seasonality, hard to know exactly where it is. Q2 and Q3 usually weak. Jonathan: There are things that make each year different...Leap Year made this quarter 1% bigger, etc. Also highly dependent on share: When we have high share, it looks more seasonal than in past.
Social Networking monetization--any progress?: Applying lots of new technologies. I'm optimistic, but this is balanced against tremendous inventory levels.
Yahoo test: Nice to be working with Yahoo. We like them very much. (Awesome non-answer)
Any ad sectors weak? We tend to see...clicks do grow less rapidly in sensitive areas, but all still showing healthy growth in ad revenue. In UK clicking higher on travel. In US, even foreclosures do pretty well... In general, we are seeing absolute growth even in sensitive areas [AMAZING]. Possible prices go up.
China: Things going well. Seeing good marketshare growth. Market so large that numbers huge. Significant new products: Chinese knowledge, users, search, etc.
Big advertisers vs. small--which grew faster in US?: Larger customers are the bigger drivers... the analytic tools get adopted by the larger ones. As advertisers adopt, it fuels growth.
YouTube ads: What are barriers to runings ads on user-gen content: Working with YouTube management. Streamlining DoubleClick integration. How do we work with users...much better targeting of ads, promotions. 2008 plan...specific milestones.
Display vs text: Trying to set up auction so they have to compete with each other.
US revenues grew $29mm sequentially... without Dclick, FLAT. Far lower than in past. Is this where we are in search cycle? We know that it's not macroeconomic. Timing of deals, product rollouts, maturity of US market. Have to be very careful with year over year... Base quarter last year, we added lots of big partners to AdSense. Relative to last year, we didn't have that many. That's what makes it look like a reduction in the US. Also the AdSense for domains clean-up. Eric: Those two are the primary cause.
PREVIEW
We won't rehash the full debate, but here are the highlights. In Q1, the market has seen:
- Violent slowdown in US paid click growth, per Comscore: From 25% year-over-year in Q4 to 2% year-over-year in Q1.
- Some anecdotal reports of weak US spending on Google in Q1 offset by many reports of strong US spending (conflicting data points)
- Major cuts in analyst estimates for Q1 and full-year 2008
- A 30% drop in the stock, from $650 to $450.
We know Google is intentionally reducing "accidental clicks" to improve ROIs for advertisers. We also know that, as late as early March, Eric Schmidt said the company still hadn't seen any impact from the weakening economy. The bulls argue that the company's click- quality improvement programs will lead to higher prices-per-click for the remaining clicks, thus offsetting the loss of revenue units. The bears argue that price increases can't possibly offset the drastic slowdown and that Google will see a sharp deceleration in US revenue in Q1.
Google generates about half of its revenue from the US, so if the US slowdown is significant, international would have to be extremely strong to offset it. Consensus estimates have dropped significantly since the start of the quarter, however, so the bar is considerably lower than it was three months ago.
We have modeled the quarter in detail, and we believe the company could survive a slowdown in the US business to about 25% Y/Y versus 40% in Q4 (and reported paid-click growth in Q1 of 2%). Any more of a slowdown, and Google will probably miss the current revenue consensus. (The EPS consensus is easier: Unless Google has continued to increase spending in the face of a sharp revenue slowdown, the company should easily beat EPS consensus).
Key Metrics
- Gross Revenue: $5.2 billion consensus, up 41%
- Net Revenue: $3.1 billion consensus, up 42% (deceleration from 52% in Q4)
- EPS: $4.52 (Should be plenty of upside here, unless company really blows it)
- Consensus Outlook:
- June Q: $3.8 billion Revenue / $4.64 EPS
- 2008: $15.9 billion / $19.55
- 2009: $20.2 billion / $24.09
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
mildew out.
The number you see on CNBC includes all the revenue from doubleclick, but excludes the 1.6 billion purchase price of doubleclick. It's like buying a 100 dollar bill for 100 dollars, and then saying you just found it on the sidewalk and it represents a 100% profit.
without the doubleclick revenue, google would have missed earnings estimates by 2 cents.
but hey- who cares about facts. lets party on wayne!
Why does that excite? Why is the media spinnig it like its a blowout?? Why is there no one pointing out that these AGAIN were hugely lowered estimates?? Wall street sleeping in bed with media to pump stocks up?
Someone correct me if I am wrong?
Once again the GOOG bears have been steamrolled.
Looks like it was due to a phone messup and they are now going back to answering the question.
Once again the GOOG bears have been steamrolled.
Every attempted rally in the past few days has been met by sellers/short sellers. That is what explains the big pop afterhours more than the actual number. $80 pop is what I expected if they had hit my target of eps $5.60
http://www.adgooroo.com/google_gains_advertiser_share.php
johnny mildew's position has always been every growth stock flames out at some point and google will be the biggest flameout of all time. however, i have been consistently wrong.
johnny mildew's position has always been every growth stock flames out at some point and google will be the biggest flameout of all time. however, i have been consistently wrong.
Yes, paid click growth is a metric that should be monitored -- but it's not the be-all, end-all.
I just hope everyone doesn't run around like the sky is falling come next quarter.
When i say research don't read Barron's or watch CNBC. They're all stuck on the vision of Google only has 1 product line for revenue. Now I don't know anyone at Google, but I had a dream we could see 1Billion Android users within 3 years (android will be global). What people don't understand is that 'open social' and the user experience for Android will dramatically change the way we look at cell phones.
Hit up a college campus and observe these kids and how they can't go 5 minutes without a text message. Understand the potential rev drivers?
...
if you had taken 510 520 april calls for 400 bucks tomorrow it is worth close to 40K!!!!
congrats goog. but please be less arrogant.
* Net Revenue: $3.74 billion
* EPS: $4.92
* Friday Open: $489
on the "place your bets" post. A little high. This quote from the earnings call is important regarding future growth:
"Base quarter last year, we added lots of big partners to AdSense. Relative to last year, we didn't have that many. That's what makes it look like a reduction in the US. Also the AdSense for domains clean-up. Eric: Those two are the primary cause."
Any more details on the "AdSense for domains clean-up" statement? I'd like to know how much of the top line revenue came from the google.com/domainpark/ version of AdSense. Since AdWords advertisers can now choose to opt out of this, what's their projection for future revenue loss?
Also, what did they mean by "clean-up?" Are they cleaning it up or did they just mean that they are letting advertisers clean it up themselves by opting out entirely? I think this is a bigger piece of the puzzle than people realize.
Google have told us That:
"Revenues from the United Kingdom totaled $803 million, representing 15% of revenue in the first quarter of 2008, compared to 16% in the first quarter of 2007 and 14% in the fourth quarter of 2007."
A Y/Y "decline" of ONE per cent.
Google had also announced that its international revenue reached $2.65 billion, or 51% of its total, compared with 47% of the total in the same period a year earlier.
Sure, this reassures others in the space that there still is growth (and huge) in advertising on the net, but for Google (I'm afraid), their days of getting the "lion's share", are numbered, IMHO.
Soon, that over-all International $2,65 billion will go the way of the UK figures and if the $US happens to "strengthen" over the next month or, two (and, I have solid enough reasons to think it will), then Google's Q2 numbers will be a disaster.
Google's increase in International revenues were only 4%. (Or, $106 million - Yes, that's an increase of, $106M)
Google also told us, that:
"Had foreign exchange rates remained constant from the first quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2008, our revenues in the first quarter of 2008 would have been $202 million lower."
That's a "real terms" DECLINE (and in representing 51% of it's revenues), of some $96M !!!!!
_________________________________
And you "wax lyrical" about Google, Henry?
:)
RJB
1. The weak dollar has juiced revenure dramatically. The worst of things may be over for US financial institutions hence, the dollar may stabilize.
2. Cash flow actually declined in this quarter. Considering Henry always wanted to model google on free cash flow growth this certainly has to be a concern.
3. Paid clicks are declining rapidly for whatever reason. Maybe consumers are more aware of google's ads and are clicking less. Google can probably continue to get more dollars per keyword however, at some point when ROI's top out advertisers won't continue to increase their bids.
4. I really just dont see any new line of business to replace search. YouTube is the best hope but it seems any serious monetization is pretty far away. I don't buy into the mobile search argument. In all honesty, I don't think it will cause people to search more just to search in a different way. If people search more on their phone they will search less on their computers just my opinion.
5. I think google has basically drifted into middle age as a company. Google no longer has a wow factor and i think if people compare google's and yahoo's search results they both are pretty similar.
6. I think the internet has evolved to a point where people are no longer searching for sites as much. There is undeniably alot of spam low content sites that pop up whenever I search for something. So, I basically stick to sites I know or sites with buzz. Its doubtful if I search for a topic on google I'll be blown away by a new site Ive never heard of.
Mildew out.
"Mike B said:Apr. 17, 2:06 PM
From a former and potentially future GOOG bear, I've never seen GOOG enter an earnings call with this much bearish sentiment from Wall Street and the average investor. This makes me particularly bullish on GOOG for this earnings call.
I think at a minimum, the stock will close at $500 on Friday. It has the potential to close much higher, but it might get pinned at $500 due to the large # of April calls issued at that number.
I think numbers will surprise on the upside. International revenues will be great, the % paid out to partner sites will be less (i.e. GOOG is keeping more adsense money), and the comscore #s are not reflective of reality (there has been a US slowdown, but it isn't bad enough yet to have a negative impact on GOOG)"
alot of times the biggest falls occur after the first drop. just from personal experience.
in really i dont think its smart investing to say im a bear on a certain company and than buy it after a first decline. (in my mind it would be smarter to pick a company you love - and buy it. just an opine)
All these bears on this board are just bitter and don't understand the 'potential'. In my opinion, google will sooner before later have a market cap of 1 trillion. i'm predicting it will be the first u.s. company to do so.
All you bears good luck next time, if desktop search ever de-celerates it's only because the user is glued to his 'android'...
g'luck guys.
Could it be that the money goes also to marketing (but they forgot to mention this)? I know, for example, that Google was sending out €100 ($150) vouchers for potential Adwords customers in December, valid throughout January 2008.
Now, if Google sends you $150 to spend on their ads, shouldn't that money appear on the revenue side at some point in time?
You disappoint me again.
You were among those leading the charge against Google when the comScore paid-click data was driving the stock down.
Now here you are pretending like you knew all along that data was irrelevant?
Oh Henry.
When will you learn? I thought the whole Spitzer episode had taught you a valuable lesson. But now that he's out of the picture I guess you're back to your old tricks.
Well, you're not a kid anymore so I guess I'll let you be the adult you are. *sigh*
Oh, by the way, you forgot to take the 3-pack of clean underwear I bought for you the last time you visited.
XO Mom
Google has "blown up" earnings at 4.84 and meet revenue estimates at 5.2 bil. If somebody thinks that stock will go back to October Highs - think twice: company has beat only reduced estimates, just 90 days ago EPS was expected at 4.87.
On our bearish front signs of further deterioration are all over the recent financial report:
Revenue Growth Q/Q has slowed -50% from 14% to 7%, Y/Y has slowed -33% from 63% to 42%.
EPS growth was 8.7% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y. Yearly growth is still impressive, but nothing out of the ordinary in order to support bubble valuation. Lets have a look how this level of EPS growth has been achieved. Here is the surprise - welcome to the new reality: gravity still matters even in cyberspace. Capex has increased to 841.6 mil +24% Q/Q YouTube blades add broadband must be eating hard into the company's margin. Cash Flow from operations has increased only 5% Q/Q.
Our famous metrics of Free Cash Flow multiple is not leaving a lot of place for unwarranted happiness: in the Q1 FCF was 842 mil.
Now market will decide what is Google: new technological frontier changing universe and "this time is different" or it is still advertising company with technology edge in its model? Its customers and consumers must be leaving in virtual world and not facing stagflation: rising prices due to intentionally loose monetary policy and recession in real inflation adjusted output. The most encouraging for this point is Eric's "...Eric reiterated the company has not seen any macro-economic impact." It is still to come...he needs some help to see his dramatically slowing growth and FCF.
If company will be able to deliver FCF with 5% Q/Q growth for this year and CAPEX will stay at Q1 level FCF will be 4.2 bil. At 30 FCF multiple (our next stop in bearish slide compression) stock should reach Market Cap of 126 bil which will translate into USD397. Any change of heart of devoted shareholders or unfolding another bear leg in general markets and USD350will be seen as blue sky.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/04/google-goog-has-deliveredanother.html
http://www.jean.ghalo.com/2008/04/17/bobnbab-google-apple-yahoo-the-loosers.html
cheers
ghalo
http://www.jean.ghalo.com/2008/04/17/bobnbab-google-apple-yahoo-the-loosers.html
cheers
ghalo
http://tinyurl.com/6gdxm7
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