Google: We're Going to Crush Baidu in China. We Think.

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chinamap.jpgGoogle (GOOG) is the undisputed champ of search just about everywhere in the world except Russia and China (anywhere else? Please let us know). In the latter, Google has surged ahead of Yahoo China and other competitors but is still getting clobbered by Baidu (BIDU), which has also been a NASDAQ moonrocket.

But getting its head handed to it in China hasn't thwarted Google's ambitions there. On the contrary, according to the WSJ, Eric Schmidt said last year that Google would be the China market leader within five years. At a conference in Boao, China, this week, the president of Google China, Kai-Fu Lee, appeared to agree with Eric--sort of.

"Certainly, we would like to aspire to be a market leader in five years," Mr. Lee said Monday on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia.

Google accounted for 26% of China's Internet-search revenue in the fourth quarter, up from 17% a year earlier, according to Beijing research firm Analysys International. Market leader Baidu.com's share of the market rose to 60% from 58%.

Many Internet users in China are more familiar with Baidu, which started earlier in the country and which attracts users in significant part by facilitating easy access to free music.

"Gaining share against a well-established, supermajority competitor is a difficult proposition because there is a certain critical mass, economy of scale and word-of-mouth effect that one has to overcome," Mr. Lee said.

Google certainly would know. Still, Google's market share gains against Baidu are impressive: In the US, since Google entered the market, no one has ever gained that much share against it. In fact, since Google entered the market, almost every other player has lost share, every quarter, for years. So perhaps Eric's not hallucinating, But it would seem to be Baidu's game to lose.

The WSJ adds:

 

Google also is exploring investments in Chinese companies that focus on social networking and mobile Internet as part of its strategy to expand in China, a burgeoning market that analysts estimate may already exceed the U.S. in the number of Internet users.

In China, Google has invested in Tianya.cn, a social-networking Web site, and in Xunlei Network Technology Co., a provider of video and game downloads, for undisclosed amounts.



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33 Comments

user said:
Yahoo leads in Japan and Taiwan. Naver leads in Korea. IIRC some local company leads in the Czech Republic.

Henry Blodget said:
Thanks.

Bartek Raciborski (URL) said:
I wrote about it very recently (in Polish) so here it comes: Google search market share (according to comScore):
- Korea 5%
- Taiwan 18%
- China 19%
- Hong Kong 26%
- Russia 32%
- Japan 40%

md2md said:
Yahoo leads in Southeast Asia, specifically Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.

Ajoy said:
Google is second or third in Japan (Yahoo Softbank
Japan is first), South Korea (NHN Naver is first),
and Taiwan (Yahoo Kimo) is first. Google hasn't
penetrated beyond the Latin-alphabet world.

Ajoy said:
Google started off leading big-time in China. They
steadily lost market share to Baidu over the years.
Just saying "we will gain market share" isn't news.
Google China has been saying that for the last 3
years. As for the 17% to 26% increase, that has
come from the consolidation of the industry. The
26% isn't search user share, it is search revenue
(ad revenue) share.

Henry Blodget said:
Very interesting. Thanks all.

AZAM said:
No way Google will dominate in China

Didn't Google invest in Baidu

Google is not Chinese and never will be even if you hire Chinese.

I would say Alibaba and QQ would have a better chance

the only way I think Google would have an advantage is in English otherwise it will never translate

funny thing is Yahoo invested in Google and now made a smarter move by investing in China through Alibaba

James said:
I was recently in Shanghai, I did notice numerous individuals on the internet cafes going to google.cn vs. baidu. I think goog has it right, registering g.cn for mobile capability. I think Baidu is slowly losing momentum. In the long run, Baidu just won't be able to compete with Google's innovative R&D and new products. In all honesty, BAIDU, like all the fake luxury bags sold on Canal street is nothing but a copy cat.
The user experience on Google in the long run will easily run over Baidu. If I were Baidu I would focus on China, why all the expansion into Japan? Conquer China, that's the biggest play.
If Baidu doesn't beat the street "bigtime" for Q1, i wouldn't be surprised to see BIDU back at 200. Betting against Google anywhere in the world is 'high risk'.

Peter said:
this is really weird to think about, but i love the idea of China starting to kick our asses in everything, just because they're bigger than us. i can't wait to tune into right wing hate radio. fun times!

on a serious/weird note, though - what would it feel like if/when Google starts rolling out cool, new products in China, first?

:-O

man - i gots to practice up on my Mandarin. Practice? You talkin bout practice, man?

Fernando (URL) said:
Here's a small article I read about this subject in Korea.

http://www.koreaninsight.com/?p=70

max said:
Seems like a lot of the commentary is based on the one-sided pronouncements of Kai-Fu Lee so let me balance it out as I am more than a casual observer on online businesses based in China. As already highlighted above, it was Google's lead to lose once and they accomplished it successfully. And then Baidu used their illegal mp3 services to increase their traffic phenomenonally which left Google gasping for air and a >30% market share deficit.

But it is getting tiring listening to Kai-fu complain about Baidu's illegal music search activities, cos if Google is so superior with their technology, why don't they simply work with the aggrieved record labels to build a case against Baidu? It's common knowledge that Baidu has blood on its hands and is currently facing a whole series of lawsuits and yet Google is not able to capitalize on the situation. Google does not even want to admit in public that they are potentially building a music service (as already reported by WSJ) to compete against Baidu, almost as if they are afraid of losing to Baidu's popular mp3 service

There is certainly a sense that Google China is running scared in both China & the US - of Baidu, of being the big American company in China, of being the American colluders with the Chinese government - caught between a rock and a hard place trying to balance both Chinese and American perceptions and expectations. So they end up with a half-assed shot at the market.

And in the process, for good measure, "do no evil" Google has a substantial investment in Xunlei, one of the top 5 facilitators of illegal music and movie downloads in China. Xunlei hides behind the search and download engine facade, but a closer examination reveals that just like Baidu, they surreptitiously host unlicensed files illegally.

So Kai-fu Lee does not even have a moral leg to stand on in his fight against Baidu. Google China can't even get their 'when in Rome' act together - if they want to get involved in illegal stuff, at least do it in order to be a leader like Baidu has done.
So my advise to Google, forget the big talk and instead seriously act like you’ve got balls of steel with the accompanying smarts and moral values.

Marl Balou said:
To get a more detailed understanding of GOOG's strategy in China, it is worth listening to Kai Fu Lee's talk at CMU. (Max's skepticism notwithstanding)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgDGNPnb124

runnerdx said:
I think that is just wishful thinking. Baidu's leaders are very forward-looking, even with some deficiencies, they know have to address them. Plus, Baidu knows China much better and Robin is very quick on the uptake and acceptive of suggestions.

runnerdx said:
Discussions are welcome.

runnerdx@hotmail.com
runnerdx@yahoo.com
baidu hi handle: runnerdx
Facebook: positive psychology

runnerdx said:
Sorry Kaifu, I know you are a great leader and a great role model for the young Chinese, and I admire you a lot(LOL), but I love China more. :)

Daixin (URL) said:
Actually, I amdire Google about for its role in doing good deeds in China & around the world, like Google.org. In some way, Google is a good role model

Tomas said:
Baidu is China's baby and it will never lose to Google. The government of China will protect Baidu because it is a media property, not just tech. There is some law in China, much like the USA, that any foreign company cannot own more than 50% of a media company. Imagine if Baidu dominates USA, you would not think the government in the US will stop that flow of information from Baidu. The same would be true of Google, it will never dominate China. You can say all the reasons you want about Google superior technology, etc... but don't forget Baidu hired a lot of PHd'S out of China university to build the best technology. I think in 5 years Baidu will dominate all of Asia and they will be the defacto gateway into China for business, that is if you want to do business in China. much like Google will be as well for North America/South/Europe. But we have to look at Google & Baidu as also tech heavyweights of cloud computing. Both companies will come out with the most innovative technology and will be big tech companies.


ビスです said:
wmv to mp4 converter can also help you put WMV files to your iPod, Zune, PSP these potable devices.
/mac dvd ripper can rip to various audio formats as well,and we got youtube video
converter
.

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640-802 / NS0-201 / 642-453 / 70-290 / 640-863 / 642-061Google: We're Going to Crush Baidu in China. We Think. Looking for trouble. So noisy.

masinn said:
出会い
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出会い

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