Google-Salesforce Deal Shows Google Not Insane, Microsoft Disruption Continues
One problem with the theory that Google is going to storm the Microsoft castle (MSFT) by disrupting the office-productivity-app business is that, to do so, Google (GOOG) would/will have to build a huge and expensive enterprise sales and service business.
Google may still end up having to do this--which will put further pressure on margins, and the stock price--but at least the company is not crazy enough to think it can do it immediately, by itself, all in one go (or, worse, that it doesn't need customer service). By integrating its app suite with Salesforce.com (CRM), Google makes its apps more useful to corporate customers. It can also leverage CRM's enterprise sales and support infrastructure, while benefitting from Salesforce's 1mm-customer installed base.
We continue to believe that the transition to "cloud computing" represents classic technology disruption and that Microsoft and other PC- and enterprise software companies will ultimately be in a challenging spot. This pressure won't develop overnight--for now, the Google App, Salesforce, NetSuite, contingent is small--but disruption always starts small.
Microsoft fans assure us that Microsoft is in great shape vis-a-vis the cloud transition, thanks to Ray Ozzie, but that it just wants to make sure it doesn't rush the products out, thus pissing off customers. We understand the desire not to annoy customers with not-ready-for-primetime products, but we also note that this problem--a high quality hurdle and incumbent customers--is just one of many challenges faced by companies in the process of being disrupted.
Internet users aren't adopting Google Apps because they're better than Microsoft Office. Google Apps are, by almost any objective measure, worse than Microsoft Office. Internet users are adopting them because they are:
- cheaper (or free)
- more convenient
These attributes will allow Google to grab the low end of the market, and, if this transition plays out as we expect, it will then move higher from there. Microsoft, meanwhile, will retreat higher to "power users" as it slowly gets disrupted from below.
TechCrunch has more on the specifics of the Google-Salesforce partnership...
See Also: Google, Amazon Lead Cloud Disruption, Microsoft Behind Eight Ball




And I can not even envision that a COO of a Fortune 500 company will hand over their most valuable data to Google. They won't trust Google to (a) have the same degree of availability, and (b) to have the same degree of security. Not mentioning Google's ability to spy on them.
It will be several years until MSFT will be disrupted.
Many have noted the shift in educational emphasis towards group work. This is true from elementary school through undergraduate education, and often beyond. The biggest PITA in doing group work is getting everyone together to do the work. Google Apps allows groups to function together while significantly lowering the need to meet together in the same room; whereas a group project might have required in the past several multi-hour meetings, you could now reduce them to one or two shorter meetings, with people working in their own space and contributing to the group 'document' as their schedules allow. Google Apps is pretty basic in its offering currently, but it's not necessary for a group to produce a finished product. They can get the information right, and then one member of the group can import the data into a finishing app and get the look and feel right. Working like this saves money and time, so it is convenient.
There aren't many other solutions that give people the ability to distribute and source work, so Google has scored a huge win. Anyone wishing to compete with them will have to create a superior product to get customers to switch. By creating a first-mover advantage for themselves, Google can position itself to dominate a market it has more or less 'created'; not too far from what MS did a generation ago. This is the true threat that Google poses; it is building the foundation to change the game, not the rules. It won't happen overnight, but it will likely happen.
In other words to get more productivity you have to change the way you get the job done. So maybe the "smart" or early adopters are using Google Aps, not the cheap ones. See Mainframe PC transition.
Next I think Ray Ozzie is overrated. At the time he developed Notes what did Sir Berners-Lee do?
1. What is the profit of CRM if you back out income on the cash? (Hint: it is near zero)
2. What percentage of last Q's profit growth was due to an increase in income on the cash? (100%)
3. What commission does a CRM sales rep. get when they sell GOOG Premium Apps? (if it is zero then...well, ask any sales rep.)
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2. What percentage of last Q's profit growth was due to an increase in income on the cash? (100%)
3. What commission does a CRM sales rep. get when they sell GOOG Premium Apps? (if it is zero then...well, ask any sales rep.)
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