Google-Salesforce Deal Shows Google Not Insane, Microsoft Disruption Continues

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innovatorsdilemma.jpgOne problem with the theory that Google is going to storm the Microsoft castle (MSFT) by disrupting the office-productivity-app business is that, to do so, Google (GOOG) would/will have to build a huge and expensive enterprise sales and service business.

Google may still end up having to do this--which will put further pressure on margins, and the stock price--but at least the company is not crazy enough to think it can do it immediately, by itself, all in one go (or, worse, that it doesn't need customer service). By integrating its app suite with Salesforce.com (CRM), Google makes its apps more useful to corporate customers. It can also leverage CRM's enterprise sales and support infrastructure, while benefitting from Salesforce's 1mm-customer installed base.

We continue to believe that the transition to "cloud computing" represents classic technology disruption and that Microsoft and other PC- and enterprise software companies will ultimately be in a challenging spot. This pressure won't develop overnight--for now, the Google App, Salesforce, NetSuite, contingent is small--but disruption always starts small.

Microsoft fans assure us that Microsoft is in great shape vis-a-vis the cloud transition, thanks to Ray Ozzie, but that it just wants to make sure it doesn't rush the products out, thus pissing off customers. We understand the desire not to annoy customers with not-ready-for-primetime products, but we also note that this problem--a high quality hurdle and incumbent customers--is just one of many challenges faced by companies in the process of being disrupted.

Internet users aren't adopting Google Apps because they're better than Microsoft Office. Google Apps are, by almost any objective measure, worse than Microsoft Office. Internet users are adopting them because they are:

  • cheaper (or free)
  • more convenient

These attributes will allow Google to grab the low end of the market, and, if this transition plays out as we expect, it will then move higher from there. Microsoft, meanwhile, will retreat higher to "power users" as it slowly gets disrupted from below.

TechCrunch has more on the specifics of the Google-Salesforce partnership...

See Also: Google, Amazon Lead Cloud Disruption, Microsoft Behind Eight Ball



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28 Comments

Noblow said:
Henry, we've heard those argument for ages from the Google fan crowd, but you should also consider that there ARE free alternatives to MS Office available today, most notably Openoffice. Even this development, which is much closer to MSFT's original product line, did not disrupt MSFT in the low-end markets. Certainly there are users of Openoffice, but would these guys have purchased an Office suite? Probably not.

And I can not even envision that a COO of a Fortune 500 company will hand over their most valuable data to Google. They won't trust Google to (a) have the same degree of availability, and (b) to have the same degree of security. Not mentioning Google's ability to spy on them.

It will be several years until MSFT will be disrupted.

Malk Marcy (URL) said:
Noblow, I totally agree with you! I think, it not even worth the comparison. MS Office is not only dominating over 90% of the market, its even making further gains and profits! Most people don't prefer working on a cracked Office suite rather than adapt their productivity habbits to work on free full version of OpenOffice. Apache servers dominate like 50% of market, and you say Apache is dominant; Google dominates 70% of search querries, and you say Google rules. But when some company holds >90% of at least 2 correlated markets (OS+productivity), add to that the fact that this very company has very HUGE resources (financial+technical), what would you say then? ...I would say, it might be many several years until MSFT could be disrupted!

Malk Marcy (URL) said:
Noblow, I totally agree with you! I think, it not even worth the comparison. MS Office is not only dominating over 90% of the market, its even making further gains and profits! Most people do prefer working on a cracked Office suite rather than adapt their productivity habbits to work on free full version of OpenOffice. Apache servers dominate like 50% of market, and you say Apache is dominant; Google dominates 70% of search querries, and you say Google rules. But when some company holds >90% of at least 2 correlated markets (OS+productivity), add to that the fact that this very company has very HUGE resources (financial+technical), what would you say then? ...I would say, it might be many several years until MSFT could be disrupted!

jenkins said:
It would not shock me to see Google buying this company, Saleforce.com, to make it the centerpiece of their office strategy. They need a core business application to build around, something that is web-based already, and something that drives subscription revenue. Salesforce is perfect for them. Let's see if it happens.

HeresJohnny said:
Henry, I think you misread the manner in which Google is going to disrupt Microsoft's business. People who use Google Apps are not the low end of the market; far from it, almost to a person they will have the resources to use Office, should they choose to do so. What distinguishes them and their usage of GApps is the WAY they use it.

Many have noted the shift in educational emphasis towards group work. This is true from elementary school through undergraduate education, and often beyond. The biggest PITA in doing group work is getting everyone together to do the work. Google Apps allows groups to function together while significantly lowering the need to meet together in the same room; whereas a group project might have required in the past several multi-hour meetings, you could now reduce them to one or two shorter meetings, with people working in their own space and contributing to the group 'document' as their schedules allow. Google Apps is pretty basic in its offering currently, but it's not necessary for a group to produce a finished product. They can get the information right, and then one member of the group can import the data into a finishing app and get the look and feel right. Working like this saves money and time, so it is convenient.

There aren't many other solutions that give people the ability to distribute and source work, so Google has scored a huge win. Anyone wishing to compete with them will have to create a superior product to get customers to switch. By creating a first-mover advantage for themselves, Google can position itself to dominate a market it has more or less 'created'; not too far from what MS did a generation ago. This is the true threat that Google poses; it is building the foundation to change the game, not the rules. It won't happen overnight, but it will likely happen.

debranjan dutta said:
Err what perplexes me in this deal is that larry Ellison has a significant stake in salesforce. The logical outcome wouldve been oracle acquiring salesforce to compete in the SaaS space along with Siebel on demand. How did this deal go thru then WTF!!

Bikerdude said:
Microsoft got their start when IBM basically gave them the PC OS market so they could concentrate on their core server and large systems business. Google is on the right track. There is quite a bit of churn in the lower end market what with people being dissatisfied with what Microsoft has been doing with their browsers and operating systems. Google can make the first big, big inroads into this market if they play their cards right. The question will be whether Google can wring enough performance out of their products to make a difference.

ronald said:
I agree with HeresJohnny. How much productivity gain does the avg. MS Office upgrade give any given user. I don't see much, I actually see people work longer hours.
In other words to get more productivity you have to change the way you get the job done. So maybe the "smart" or early adopters are using Google Aps, not the cheap ones. See Mainframe PC transition.

Next I think Ray Ozzie is overrated. At the time he developed Notes what did Sir Berners-Lee do?






T. Griffin said:
SAI is good at looking beyond slideware and press releases and asking hard questions. But not in the case of CRM. Here are three:

1. What is the profit of CRM if you back out income on the cash? (Hint: it is near zero)

2. What percentage of last Q's profit growth was due to an increase in income on the cash? (100%)

3. What commission does a CRM sales rep. get when they sell GOOG Premium Apps? (if it is zero then...well, ask any sales rep.)

T. Griffin said:
SAI is good at looking beyond slideware and press releases and asking hard questions. But not in the case of CRM. Here are three:

1. What is the profit of CRM if you back out income on the cash? (Hint: it is near zero)

2. What percentage of last Q's profit growth was due to an increase in income on the cash? (100%)

3. What commission does a CRM sales rep. get when they sell GOOG Premium Apps? (if it is zero then...well, ask any sales rep.)

c choi said:
the disruption is that these apps are disrupting the enterprise itself. web apps give little guys enterprise capabilities and the ability to compete effectively with them. 3 people who start a business together working out of their respective houses do not need their own SMTP server, Oracle, and the like, but a big company always will. Frankly, however, I love and use zoho.com, specifically creator.zoho.com and db.zoho.com and crm.zoho.com. zoho rocks over google apps exponentially.


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