Yahoo-Microsoft Having "Informal Talks" (Again)
CNET:
Microsoft and Yahoo are holding informal merger discussions, marking a shift from the "radio silence" that previously existed between the two companies, according to a source familiar with the talks.A lot has changed over the past two weeks, compared with February 1 when Microsoft issued its unsolicited buyout bid for Yahoo, which initially valued the company at $31 a share."Yahoo has shown some willingness to have a conversation and talk," said the source, who noted the Redmond giant has since come to the conclusion it may never get a formal rejection letter from Yahoo.
Whether these informal talks will lead to a deal has yet to be seen, added the source.
See Also:
Yahoo Disaster Scenario: Blowing Q1
Microsoft May Go All-Cash, Raise Bid to $31
Shame on you Blodget. I would have expected you'd beat CNET's D rated journalist to the punch.
Got on the phone with your sources and dig up some more dirt.
Investors need to know!
**I simply offer this examination of the facts with a logical conclusion drawn no differently than any other common person might speculate about a conclusion**
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If we can accept as true (I’m not saying it is true) what the sources that Michael Arrington:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/68458-a-partial-list-of-microsofts-nominees-for-the-yahoo-board?source=yahoo
…refer to as having provided the following information (quoting him):
“Everything we’ve heard, though, says that Microsoft intends to push their slate sooner rather than later. In fact, it is our understanding from a source that the slate was to be announced today, but it has been delayed. It could come any time.”
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…then, indeed, the information that such a pending action might be taken possibly immediately by MSFT, and this fact, told formally or informally to Yang and his board (remember that Ballmer warned Yang privately just prior to the MSFT proposal that it would be made public the next day), would have been the realization, for Yang and his board, of the potential effects I’ve described as being quite similar to the delivery of a summons for them to court (their own company procedures, including the annual meeting and vote). I may be wrong but I would imagine that such information might’ve induced Yang and the board to understand that their days of being able to effect totally autonomous decisions would’ve likely been finally terminated with that action. It might have improved their attitude for conducting more substantive talks with MSFT.
If Arrington’s sources are correct, then MSFT has possibly now sent the signal that Yahoo’s recent "buying time" maneuver is likely to soon be made effectively null and void by MSFT’s pending nominations. I mean, after MSFT nominates, what’s the point of an extended deadline for nominations? So, what, who’d we be waiting to see nominated after that?… Howdy Doody?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howdy_Doody
No, if and when MSFT were to nominate, they would by that action effectively close the nomination process. After that, Yahoo’s remaining deadline extension period would be just pointless comedy. The proxy fight would be on and there’d be no stopping it, save by negotiating a definitive agreement.
Yang and his board would therefore from-thence-forward forever lose the option of negotiating with MSFT under any pretense of it being their voluntary decision to do so. They would be as though whipped puppies waiting for their fate.
It’s at least possible that MSFT might have held up the nominations today only after Yahoo had made a voluntary overture for finally negotiating. Who knows?… Only MSFT and Yahoo can know. It’s at least logical and plausible.
From the start this potential deal has been bigger than markets. Were it not so, the proposal would’ve been nearer to 20 than to 31. I don’t think it’s true that Yahoo has lost all of its leverage. There is still a great deal of potential value to MSFT in having a receptive, cooperative and supportive Yahoo management and employee base involved in an efficient merger integration. Backing away or reducing the proposal would just likely breed contempt and damage the future efficiency of the merger.
MSFT’s need to acquire Yahoo is likely more important to them than the few dollars it might take to get Yahoo over the hump... a mere blip in MSFT’s EBITDA future.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/3/bradford_why_i_left_msn_for_spotrunner
“MSN's business is strong right now and portals are underrated. Portal growth is not as fast as smaller sites, but the revenue and user base is so huge I think it's underestimated. Everyone's focused on the search battle, but there is real money and consumer satisfaction in the portal space.”
Later she says about MSN:
“We are one of the largest creators of original content on the Web, and it’s very profitable. It's the quiet secret of MSN.”
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Okay, I suppose it’s reasonable for MSN critics and naysayers to assume Bradford might simply be making complimentary statements about the business of her employer to facilitate an amicable departure. However, in addition to having a rather passable and attractive resemblance to Queen Noor, she also has a passably honest looking face to me.
So if we believe her - and I do, notwithstanding her good looks which have absolutely n-o influence on me – she’s possibly giving us some potential insight into another “quiet secret,” that being that MSFT may value Yahoo’s worldwide portal distribution capacity much more than many pundits might assume.
Public markets seldom unite price and value. They’re all about the here and now… Mergers are about the potential values derived in the future. What’s the NPV of a successful merger facilitated over years and years?… Hard if not impossible to say, but stocks traded at the margins of public discourse usually fail to predict it, particularly when that discourse is so ejaculatory as dueling pundits-come-reporters can make it.
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BTW, Joanne, Queen Noor’s got you edged out a tad... but just a tad.
Okay, boys and girls, it’s parody time!
Quoting from the article:
“The Journal said the meeting wasn't a negotiation and that no bankers were present. The session was intended to allow Microsoft to present its vision of a combined company, and Yahoo executives mostly listened, the Journal quoted one of the sources as saying.”
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You know… maybe I’m wrong but I actually believe it happened in just that fashion. You know why?… Because it fits with everything that MSFT has said and done in the weeks since the proposal was made. Outside of the gunplay that Ballmer and Gates used, that stuff about “with or without Yahoo” and their threats to eventually take the matter directly to shareholders, everything else has had the gentle disposition of the interoperability conference and of Johnson’s letter, Ozzie’s comments and the Jean-Philippean pastel that collectively form an outreach for cooperation, love and affection towards Yahoo.
Feel the love?
Can’t you just see that meeting! It’d have a sort of “Gone With the Wind” Scarlett O’Hara interplay:
Softguys: “Do you mean to tell us, Jerry Scarlett O'Yang, that Tara-Net doesn't mean anything to you? Why, Internet real estate is the only thing in the world worth workin' for, worth fightin' for, worth dyin' for, because it's the only thing that lasts.”
Scarlett O’Yang: “I can't let it go. I just can't!”
Softguys: “It’s the land… it’s Tara-Net… it’s the future… come and help us, Scarlett… help us make Tara-Net.”
Scarlett O’Yang: “There must be some way to hold on. Oh, I can't think about this now! I'll go crazy if I do! I'll think about it tomorrow.”
Softguys: “But you can’t think about it tomorrow, Scarlett… You have to think about it now, right now, before it’s too late, before the GOO-glee-ites get Tara-Net!”
Scarlett O’Yang (his fist full of dirt, standing outside the Yahoo-headquarters-soon-to-be-winery door): “As God is my witness I’ll not turn it loose cheap… I'm going to live through this… but I’m not gonna sell it cheap.”
Softguys: “It’s Tara-Net – Why, Jerry Scarlett O’Yang, it’s the land… it’s worth livin’ and dyin’ for… Why, you’re half-Irish [*hey, it’s my parody] and as long as there’s a drop of Irish blood in you, you’ll love Tara-Net. You’ll come back to it… maybe you don’t realize it now, but you will soon… it’s your Irish blood… it’ll tell you how to come home… it’ll bring you back to Tara-Net.”
Scarlett O’Yang: “I can’t think about this now… Tomorrow… Tomorrow, that’s it!… I’ll think about it t-o-m-o-r-r-o-w!”
Softguys: “But, Scarlett… we’ll have to start the Un-Civil War tomorrow, so why don’t you put your fist full of dirt in a jar and let’s get on with it, how’bout!”
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