So Cramer Blew Bear Stearns Call. Whatever

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jimcramer3.jpgThe most influential market commentator in history, Jim Cramer, is under fire for screaming support for Bear Stearns last week. Armies of Cramer-haters have seized on this as the blown call that should finally get Cramer de-bunked once and for all.

Please.

First, if you're going to rag on Cramer for getting it wrong, at least be right. The video below clearly shows that Cramer was talking about money held at Bear Stearns, not Bear Stearns stock, and he's been proven right, not wrong, about the sanity of keeping it there. (Cramer did say "Bear Stearns is fine," which it wasn't, but in this video at least, he doesn't say anything about the stock.)

Second, are you actually implying that Cramer is or should be right about everything? The man is on the air about 5 hours a day, every day, and he squeezes more predictions, comments, and incendiary asides into those 5 hours than most people utter in a year. If you say that much stuff, you're going to be wrong all the time. Whatever!

We've argued in the past that Cramer gives lousy investment advice, and we stand by that: The idea that the watching Mad Money and doing a bit of research is a smart investment strategy for a casual investor is preposterous, as is the conceit that smart investing should be raucously entertaining.

But Jim Cramer himself is often entertaining. He also often has very smart things to say (albeit with a unique sort of bombast). Almost all Wall Street analysts were wrong about Bear Stearns, and, unlike Cramer, it's actually their job to sit around and analyze Bear Stearns. So give the man a break!

 

 

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31 Comments

jenkins said:
The call he blew came two months back when he talked about takeover rumors about Bear when they were at $86/share. This obviously happened but not at a premium.

Henry Blodget said:
I usually assume that Jim has said everything at one time or another. In this case, the video that everyone's cackling about is the one above, from March 11.

On a more macro level, Jim's wrong all the time--as anyone would be if they made as many predictions and assessments as he does. I don't understand why people get so excited about this. (His attitude, perhaps? That I can understand).


Pete said:
"First, if you're going to rag on Cramer ..." Rag on him, huh? You mean the sort of rag that women use during menses? You know menses, that cycle that allows women to give birth to everyone? I would like to coin a new term; Pindweedle. As in, "Henry Blodget is a pindweedle." It means: small, pin-sized dweelde. I once saw a homelss woman digging through garbage cans the streets of NW DC. She had a splotch of blood on her tattered white dress near her pelvis. she couldn't afford a rag, I guess.

Gordon said:
"Mr. Cramer's stock market calls since May 2000 have low consistency and approximately coin-flip accuracy", according to a study by CXO Advisory Group. Specifically:

* Mr. Cramer is right about 50% (25 out of 51) of the time with his stock market predictions...
* His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods.

Gordon said:
p.s. i would love to get my hands on MILF spitzer...

i wonder if she got tested since the scandal broke?

Check out these polls...

http://www.vizu.com//poll-results.html?n=82140

http://www.vizu.com//poll-results.html?n=82173

Oh common now... 10 seconds in the question is on-screen and Bear Sterns is followed by BSC (stock ticker).

17 seconds in and they show the BSC 3-month chart. It's clear he's talking about the stock.

If Cramer said "Don't sell Microsoft" would you assume he meant don't sell your copy of Windows on eBay? NO! You'd know he was talking about Microsoft stock.

Don't give him that much credit - he was talking about BSC.

Mr. Recycle said:
Eric, he didn't say "Don't sell Bear", he said "Don't move your money from Bear" and question was about liquidity, not about price, so the subject was clearly NOT stock.

Jaffrey said:
Agree with Eric. This man takes the credit for his "winners". He should do the same for his losers. In fact, he should announce his record like the broadcasters do during the NFL season with their weekly picks. He's a market mover for sure. To deny so is disingenuous.

Pete you are a very disturbed individual.

rag (v.)
"scold," 1739, of unknown origin; perhaps related to Dan. dialectal rag "grudge."

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=rag

kelly said:
Pete
you're a jerk and a clueless idiot. there are men and then there are gentlemen. the latter you are not. learn some manners - if you wouldn't say it in front of your grandmother, you needn't say it at all. you have no respect for women and that's a huge turnoff. you represent the worst type of man. ugh.


Pete said:
"Kelly": I've told that story to my mom. My grandmom is dead. And, hey, stop raggin' on me.

Pete said:
Biorn: slang for "tampon, sanitary napkin" is attested from 1930s.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/rag

Still, I think you have a point. As Rosana Rosanadana would say...

nevermind.

jenkins said:
This string sort of got off topic. Yes, Cramer is all over the map and does not tend to give good advice. I learned this a long time ago. I just don't think he does the kind of homework he once did when his money was on the line.

JKjlgfds said:
Cramer, Henry... WHATS the difference? Same Sh$t different packaging and marketing...


henry said:
Cramer realized he was wrong last Friday and changed his stance. If he had recommended the common before, he got people out on Frieday. On Friday CNBC, he told people to game Bear through the bond, not the common. Don't be so hard on the guy.

Anton said:
Why on earth would anyone still want to be "in" Bear last Friday? I dont get it.

henry said:
He didn't suggest people to play Bear on Friday. He offered that option in case people were so inclined to play Bear. btw, Bear's preferred went up on Monday.


Here is the Barron's study that found how poor Cramer's picks were

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118681265755995100.html?mod=9_0001_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_top

Just for the record, I like the show.

Here was my response to the Barrons piece:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10375137/1/putting-cramers-mad-money-picks-to-the-fire.html

I look at the performance of all the stocks that Jim spends more than 30 seconds on in any show (so not the lightning round picks but the stocks he prepares for each show). I kept the Barrons methodology of looking at the stock as of the open the next day.

I'll note that when Barrons does their own yearly roundup they go from the Friday close before their paper comes out. So they benefit from the "Barrons bounce". They did not give JIm that benefit.

Gordon 2 said:
Henry, you sucked too as an ANALyst. You and Cramer are all full of Sh*t.

Btw, MILF Spitzer has a nice rack! I'd give her a "Bear" hug!

kjm said:
Cramer is a moron. Remember his strategy of "buy $80 stocks since they will go to $100". Yeah that sort of nonsense was the peak of the market. Not to mention making investors lose fortunes on Level3, buyout specs of Monster.com and Valueclick

I got wood for MILF Spitzer

Mike B said:
Anyone who has access to RealMoney can check back through Cramer's history on BSC. He has called it wrong month after month even up to saying it was a good buy in late January since it would surely be taken over. He did get the takeover part right though.

Marc said:
Cramer called BSC wrong or did he? The fact is the company on it's own conference call said they had better than $17 billion in cash and that liquidity going forward was fine on Friday. First they have a run from the retail but even bigger they couldn't do business with any of the big firms since they couldn't get access to credit. So the officers of the company lied. Unless Jim had inside knowledge he couldn't know that. If he did he couldn't reveal it. There is good and bad with Cramer however if you actually listen to what he says and not just take his picks and run with them you can recognize these basic idea's that he always bangs the table about. Don't own what you don't understand. Do your own homework. Read a finaincial report and if you don't know how to read one then you shouldn't be buying individual stocks. Most of the anyalsts (like Blodget) are paid to help investment banking get deals. They are not here to help the public but to fill their own pockets. They have no interest in helping anyone just themselves making them nothing more than common thieves. Cramer does whether you like him or not try to edify the public and get paid for doing it. Want someone to blame? Look at the officers of Bear Stearns. If you know anything about Bear Stears and it's culture you would have know to completely avoid it. It's been a house of card for years. You can't learn that in LA, Greenwich, CT. or Chicago you have to be in where? New York City. You have two choices either hire a professional to manage your money for you or work on Wall Street and learn everything you can, get out and work for yourself.

pwb said:
No question that the questioner and Cramer were referring to customer deposits, NOT the stock. Eric Nagel, et. al. are wrong. As is Andreesen for his dig.

John Deluth said:
Henry,

I don't understand why you posted a picture of Cramer and Silda Spitzer on this particular blog post. What does Silda Spitzer have to do with Cramer's call on Bear Stearns?

John

PCoenties said:
John Deluth: The business blog Street Sweeper has a good post on the link between Spitzer and Bear Stearns: www.spdiamondjr.wordpress.com

MasteroftheUniverse said:
Cramer got it WRONG! It is besides the fact of whether he was talking about the stock or holding an account there, for someone as "plugged in" as Cramer espouses to be he should have known that poison was running through Bear's veins and they were about to croak. Bear just as easily could have gone BANKRUPT as being bailed out. It was a coin toss and unfortunately we, the taxpayers, have to pay the price to bail out overpriced bankers, traders, etc. Schwartz knew it...traders all over the Street knew it, Paulson knew it, Bernanke knew it. That's why Bear seized and if you have your finger on the pulse of the street (as Cramer supposedly does) you would have known that traders at other firms stopped doing business with Bear and that a crisis of confidence ensued. Anyone armed with that info would have pulled their account from Bear right then and there and while they were at it would have shorted BSC!

MasteroftheUniverse said:
Cramer got it WRONG! It is besides the fact of whether he was talking about the stock or holding an account there, for someone as "plugged in" as Cramer espouses to be he should have known that poison was running through Bear's veins and they were about to croak. Bear just as easily could have gone BANKRUPT as being bailed out. It was a coin toss and unfortunately we, the taxpayers, have to pay the price to bail out overpriced bankers, traders, etc. Schwartz knew it...traders all over the Street knew it, Paulson knew it, Bernanke knew it. That's why Bear seized and if you have your finger on the pulse of the street (as Cramer supposedly does) you would have known that traders at other firms stopped doing business with Bear and that a crisis of confidence ensued. Anyone armed with that info would have pulled their account from Bear right then and there and while they were at it would have shorted BSC!

Bruce said:
That is disturbing, but often he now uses friendships apparently rather than good due diligence....Examples?...He pumped Sears Holdings for so long, simple because his liked his hedge fund buddy, Eddie.....and this was a combination of two real losers K Mart and Sears..and most of us wondered how Eddie Lambert would make much of a difference....turns out he didn't....same with Google...these were his number one ideas...not some lightning round quick take.....he is just not someone whose advice you should follow....

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