SAI 25 Update: Now Analyzing Our Finalists...And We Need Your Help!
We've narrowed the candidates down considerably, and we've already chosen 5 of the SAI 25. As part of our final deliberations for the remaining slots, we're now going to solicit your help.
Below is a partial list of our SAI 25 finalists. We are considering these companies--along with about a dozen others--for the remaining 20-or-so spots on the list. We now want to factor in what you, our well-informed SAI readers, think.
Please share any thoughts you might have on any of these finalists--either in the comments, or, if you want your input to be confidential, by sending an email to Jonathan Kennedy at jon@alleyinsider.com. Also, please let us know if we've overlooked any obvious candidates (Again, 5 companies that aren't listed here are already on the list, but your supporting them again won't hurt). Please also forward the list to any of your friends at the companies (or their competitors), so both can weigh in.
A reminder: The goal of the SAI 25 is to find the private digital-industry companies that have the best chance of being worth the most money someday. How are we defining "worth the most"?
- Generating the most free cash flow,
- Having the highest sustainable public-market value (sustainable = cash flow), or
- Getting bought for the most money.
We are taking into account valuations already ascribed to such companies by private-market investors, but we give greater weight to our own assessment of the companies' future earning power. If you want to make a strong case for a company, therefore, please tell us why you think the company will make or get acquired for a boatload of money someday. Also, as you will note, most of our candidates are not seed-stage companies, which are very hard to evaluate. We're happy to consider seed-stage ventures, but most of the SAI 25 will be more mature companies. A final reminder: The SAI 25 is a global list, so we are considering companies in all geographies.
Thanks in advance. We look forward to hearing from you.
2008 SAI 25 Finalists (Partial List, Alphabetical Order*)
4INFO
56.com
Adconium
Adify
Angelsoft
Associated Content
Bebo
Betfair
Clickable
CTS Media
Efficient Frontier
Etsy
Federated Media
Glam
Huffington Post
iPart.cn
KickApps
KooXoo
Liba.com
LinkExperts
Live Gamer
Loopt
Lotame
Mahalo
Metacafe
Mint
Now Public
Oanda
OpenX
Ozon
Powerset
Rock You
Social Media
Spot Runner
Stardoll
TheLadders
Thumbplay
Traffiq
Trialpay
Tudou
Weatherbill
Woome
Xactly
Yandex
Yelp
Youku
Zazzle
*This list does not include companies that have already made the SAI 25, as well as some companies we have not yet evaluated.
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I would have to agree that Zillow should be on the list. If you look at what impact they have had on the industry, value to the consumer, and pedigree of the company.
they seem to be on a tear with products. They just launched a Mortgage section that may change the whole landscape.
I would have to agree that Zillow should be on the list. If you look at what impact they have had on the industry, value to the consumer, and pedigree of the company.
they seem to be on a tear with products. They just launched a Mortgage section that may change the whole landscape.
http://www.in4.hu
(1) Zillow --- hype machine with no real revenue model. They're on version XXXX of their business model. Early folks have already left. Not sure of this one.
(2) Spot Runner --- rumors coming out of this place are similar. Early business model not working well, revenue isn't materializing nearly as quickly as their costs. There's something about this company that doesn't sit well.
I am biased because I am a founder but if you have some of the dogs that are on there there then I imagine we should fit in somewhere.
How about you make a list of "25 companies SAI bets will get acquired in 2008" or something that has a specific prediction? "Best companies" is just so nebulous...
i nominate our entire portfolio
i honestly have no idea which ones will be the big winners and which ones will not
i have no idea how twitter will make money right now
and i don't care about either uncertainty
what is certain is your SA 25 will be wrong about a lot of your choices
just as your sa100 was wrong.
am i the third most influential person working on the internet in nyc? no.
is mike bloomberg or barry diller relevant? no.
the most relevant people are not even on your list
fred
-- Zillow.com
-- Redfin
-- WhitePages.com
-- BuddyTV
-- SpotRunner
-- iMeem
-- Seeqpod
- DropBox
- Slide
- CafeMom (this one for sure!!!!!!!)
1. hulu - define web video entertainment sector
2. endeca - define information findability on a destination site
3. digg - shape our behavior on how we are relevant in a ever fast moving society
I also like Rearden Commerce and Workday.
Etsy (http://www.etsy.com/)- It’s the equivalent of e-bay for artisans. After searching around I was reminded of the storied Longaberger Basket Co. Their model relied totally on in-house sales of their hand-made baskets. Think Tupper-Ware. They managed to build tremendous traction, and this site is giving people the ability to target the global market with their wares. It’s given the flea-market down the block an interactive spin. According to Quantcast they have almost 800k unique users. Not bad, but they aren’t accepting advertising. If they expand their business model there’s tremendous potential to capture ad-dollars to target this niche market. Etsy is my “sleeper” pick.
Lotame (http://www.lotame.com/)- This one caught my interest, much like Tudou and Woome, because based on the name I had absolutely no idea what the hell they did. Apparently they deal with monetization and targeting within social media (who doesn’t lately?) They claim to be unique for a couple of reasons, one being they only deal with social media, and the second is that they say they can build “customizable audiences” and provide new "monetization techniques." It seems they recently got some funding, and a former member of Google recently joined their BOD. Most interesting to me was they use social media to describe their company through videos (makes sense), which I don’t think anyone else is doing. Vote number 2 goes to these guys, huge opportunity for them to provide tremendous value for the industry if they’ve truly cracked the code.
Finally, Traffiq (http://www.traffiq.com/) seems to have an innovative new way to deal with media buys. My immediate thought after looking around the site is that it should make life much easier, and maybe cheaper, with the online tools they offer. It’s the ScottTrade of media! I was surprised to see that Quantcast rated them with a little over 6k users a month. If some marketing dollars were put behind this product I think it has the potential to be a vital resource for media planners and buyers. The site says it’s in “beta” right now, and I’m going to monitor it over the next few months waiting for an “official” launch. My third plug is for Traffiq, it’s a neat concept, and has huge potential.
Looking forward to the 25th…
Being totally biased myself, I think Zecco, the Free Trading Community, is a clear example of such an obvious omission.
Michiel de Boer
Zecco
Spencer Rascoff, CFO of Zillow here.
Disappointed not to be on the list. We've grown from 0 to 5M UU (per Omniture internal #s) in 2 years, with $0 advertising spend; we've #4 in the real estate category (per Hitwise), and have basically singlehandledly re-ignited the online real estate category's product innovation.
I think several of the companies on the list are doing a great job (e.g., Yelp, Spotrunner), but to be honest -- I have never heard of about half of the companies on your list.
On this one, if you think we're missing a company that's going to be bought for an eye-popping number, we'd be grateful if you could tell us which one.
Also, given that this list in particular is right in your sweet spot, I'd love to find a way to have you contribute to it instead of dissing it.
One company we've discussed internally, for example, is Twitter. We use it on the site, we're read about it all day, etc. And yet some folks remain deeply skeptical about its business prospects. I'd love to hear your thoughts there:
What revenue model will work? What do the economics look like? I think it's smart for the company to put the service first and the model second, but it's been around long enough now that I assume there's been some thought given to this. I'd love to hear it.
Here's why:
- Our content tracking and analytics platform provides publishers with web-wide visibility of their articles, images or video content.
- In addition to critical business intelligence about when, where and how content is being re-used, publishers now have an automated means to turn any re-published content into value through a link, licensing or ad share agreement.
- Leading publishers recognize that they are competing in a fragmented search economy and are pushing their content out beyond their sites. Rather than hold back premium content, publishers can unleash it onto the Web distribution channel and extract value through new business models and licensing formats.
- Content atomization is exploding. For every source article, we are finding, on average, 20 copies in whole or in part across the Internet.
- Our enterprise service launched in Nov '07 and we have quickly amassed a strong global customer base including Reuters, The Associated Press, Conde Net among others.
- Soon, we will launch services for bloggers, photographers and other small publishers who recognize that links are the new currency of the Internet and will use Attributor to improve their search engine rankings.
I'm happy to discuss any questions on why we feel Attributor is must-have digital content infrastructure for content publisher.
and your list will leave out at least one company that will be bought in less than a year for an eye popping number
and it may include a company or two that will never make anyone any money.
this blog is too good to be doing shit like this
fred
BetFair is a great law-abiding and ethical gambling/betting company. They are the leader (in revenue terms) in the prediction market industry. One thing to note is their recent introduction of the "BetFair starting prices". I blogged about that. It seems to me that it would allow them to compete more efficiently with bookmakers. It is a system that simplifies the betting on a betting exchange... while at the same time leaving intact the benefits of betting thru a betting exchange (lower costs)... I think it's something to watch carefully if you want to anticipate any surge in BetFair's future revenues...
Chris Masse
PS: The leader of the prediction markets industry, in terms of concept and prestige this time, is InTrade-TradeSports.
agreed.
i'd add:
earthclassmail
ooyala
Reachlocal
Zillow
Slide
Opentable
Rearden commerce
Geni
LinkedIn
Facebook
Digg
Automattic
Flixster
...aren't on the list. They've all done huge rounds or have persistent acquisition rumors at enormous valuations vis a vis many of the names on the list. Some have massive cash flow already, others not so much. But if you're gathering such a group of luminaries to make these calls, at least have them make some interesting prognostications.
I understand that some of these names are almost certainly on the list of 5, but they can't all be there. And that means your judges think that the guy that invested tens of millions at a $100MM+ valuation is very very wrong. That debate would be a fascinating one, and very interesting to get some bets on paper to see how it really plays out.
Unless Powerset, Hakia, et al, can offer a quantum leap in terms of relevance, I don't see any of them generating a branded search business on their own. But if they have good technology, I imagine Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft would ultimately pony up for them.