Netflix's Blu-ray Headache

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netflix-discs.jpgThe next-gen DVD format war is over, Sony's (SNE) Blu-ray has won, and consumers are starting to demand Blu-ray discs. And in the near term, that could be a problem for Netflix (NFLX).

Netflix lowered its rates last July, a move that has helped the movie rental service sign up new customers and keep existing ones. But Blu-ray's adoption may put pressure on Netflix to bump up rates again -- or take a near-term hit.

Today, Blu-ray and HD DVD movies make up a tiny share of Netflix's business: a small, single-digit percentage of its overall shipments, CFO Barry McCarthy said at a recent investor conference. But as Blu-ray players become more affordable, Netflix will add to its hi-def movie library. This year, the company expects to add 1300-1500 Blu-ray titles, including new releases and back-catalog classics.

The problem: While standard DVDs cost the company around $18, Blu-ray discs cost about $23. That 28% premium will eventually shrink, but not in the near-term. So as those more expensive Blu-ray discs eventually account for a greater percentage of the company's inventory, Netflix will have to make a difficult decision: Raise prices, set up a tiered rental service that differentiates between Blu-ray and standard DVDs, or deal with lower gross margins.

See Also:
Blu-ray Sales To Triple, DVD Market Still Screwed
Netflix Boosts Guidance, CFO Looks Ahead
Netflix: Mac Streaming Coming This Year
Netflix Q4: Sales, Profit Up, Subscriber Growth Down
Five Questions About LG's Netflix Movie Devices
Netflix-LG Movie Deal: Picking Winners And Losers
Netflix, LG Link Up For Set-Top Box, Apple TV Toast?



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27 Comments

Alex said:
I think blue ray will be good for netflix. Higher cost of disks mean less people will want to buy them which means more net-flix subscribers. I see no reason to buy blueray disks, but if I ever get a player I'll be getting netflix at the same time. Perhaps they will have to tier it, but it will still be a great service - tiering is easy with online pricing.

Netflix should just suck it up. Raising rates will lose customers (current and future). BR prices (both players and discs) will come down soon. Netflix has a decent library of BR (My queue's top 10 are all BR) already and it hasn't broken the bank.

Bob said:
I think there should be different subscription options so that those of us who aren't impressed enough with the format or can't afford a BR player or discs don't have to support Sony.

Pseudoku said:
People still watch movies? Even though only one or two percent of them are above the threshold of watchability? That's odd.

superdynamite (URL) said:
"Netflix's Blu-ray Headache"????

Where did that title come from?

Has product demand become a headache???

Or is the title of this article misleading propaganda?

Dave said:
Blu-ray is not what it is cracked up to be. The best Blu-ray movies, with an output of 1080P, look no better than decent 1080i over cable or satellite. A DVD is 720 x 480P. Blu-ray, at 1920 x 180P is exactly 6 times larger (in bits) than DVD. Take an 8 gig DVD and make it 6 times larger and you have 48 gig. There is no innovation here. It is simply a larger file that is next to impossible to pirate due to its size. Now if the final Blu-ray movie quality was truly on par with 1080P, it would be a different story. The movies are twice the size they need to be. If you used Microsoft's VC1 codec and did 1080i, you could fit the movie on standard dual-layer DVD. Of course no playback in a stand-alone player, but it could be stored there. The studios used a very practical approach to curb the piracy, yet the quality is nothing like it should be. Just plug in your PC to your HD TV and you will see your desktop in true 1080P. Bring up a few pictures and display them and you will see the truth of the matter. I am not in the Microsoft camp either, but at least they actually developed a better compression algorithm. Sony did not even do that. The studios are so out of touch with producing quality that the Time Warner stations TNT and TBS actually destroy movies by adding a variable aspect ratio to stretch a letter boxed 4:3 (originally from 16:9) to fit a 16:9 display. A persons head is an oval on the sides of the screen and closer to round in the middle. The original art work is completely destroy and the resulting output give everyone I know a headache to watch. Then they sell it to you as if it is really HD. If you have any sense, it should be telling you never buy Blu-ray. Make Sony take it in the shorts. It your decision.

Vin said:
Dave, what are you on about!

Payton said:
@ David

Regular dvd is 720? Wrong!!! 1080P look no better than 1080i over cable or satellite? Wrong again. Maybe you need to change your TV set Dave.

Kaiswil2 said:
Wait a min Dave, I just wanted to clarify some of the items you mentioned. The 6x is in resolution not file size. But this is not true in the size, the largest movie I know of is Shoot'Em Up at 49 gb.

File size is dependent on mostly the amount of action on the screen which more Kbps per frame.

Follow this link to see movies sizes.
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=3338

And you confused with the VC-1 Codec, MS doesn't own it but they do have standards and guidelines for their playback means.

I support HD-DVD and am currently a Netflix user of 8 at a time, but we'll see how they handle the BR issue.

I felt betrayed when they announced they will start pulling HD-DVD movies by the end of the year. So they can sell them off at $10 each and that will cover their cost of 28% premium to purchase BR.

Bill Sheppard said:
Dave, you're out of your mind or have very, very poor vision. Blu-ray can deliver 40Mbit/sec of video, which means far less compression than your cable stream which generally tops out at 6Mbit/sec. Further, most Blu-ray titles are compressed in AVC/H.264 (comparable to VC-1), while that cable movie is done in MPEG-2, which is less than half as efficient at low bitrates. Taken together there is simply no comparison; even on a small screen you'll see artifacts and other compression flaws on the cable/satellite broadcast. Further, cable/satellite offers only Dolby Digital 5.1, which again can't begin to compare with the lossless audio formats offered on a majority of Blu-ray releases.

Demexii (URL) said:
Can't compare? Think again. You really think go smo cares if the 5.1 audio is compressed or lossless when he is using outdated stereo speakers on his TV? Even most of the people who have HDTVs (which is pretty small at the moment) don't have high surround sound speakers set up. People will switch over but not because they think it is so much better. They will switch because the movie studios will stop supporting DVDs like how they killed VHS (look how long it took DVDs to just overcome VHS sales). Many people can't even notice the difference between DVD and Bluray.

dwight said:
Dan, while the price increase may be a problem for them, the higher resolution would seem to help them fend off online video watching which likely will be lower resolution for a while no? Perhaps helpful.

Sus Ano said:
Actually netflix might save money. Dont forget one of the advantages of blu-ray is the protective coating on each disc. Depending on how many rentals they get out of a SDVD Metflix might actually have a MUCH higher margin on blu-rays. Not only do blu-ray look much better than than SDVD (unless you are blind or bitter or just hate Sony) they last longer as well.

oarias said:
Ummm... as far as the "protective coating" the last poster mentioned. I was under the impression that it had it because Blu-ray is easier to scratch. That said, I would guess that Blu-ray and DVD disks have similar rental lives.


Phillip Bosco said:
First of all, i think netflix should have planned better accordingly.
Of course there was no way to predict a winner, but they should have still planned that High Def Discs would still cost a premium over standard DVD's.

I think if netflix dropped their prices to more affordable ones to bring in new customers and keep existing, then the best thing to do at this point would be to offer different rates for the different disc formats.

Just like with digital downloads everywhere. $3.50 for standard def and $5.00 for high def.
Its expected that you pay more for a higher quality viewing experience.

I also think that in the end, this could be profitable for netflix. Instead of them considering this a "hit" on profits, they can easily turn this around to at least make a small profit off of.

My advice:
Offer different type of rental plans for the different dvd formats. It's a good idea. It will work fine.

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