Microsoft (Not) Launching Google App Killer, Buying Salesforce.com?
Nick Carr hears that Microsoft (MSFT) has begun briefing corporations on its forthcoming Google App killer (a.k.a., web-based Office). We'll believe this product when we see it. Microsoft should have launched a cloud-based Office three years ago, and the baby-steps it has taken since then haven't persuaded us that it will ever really be able to respond.
UPDATE: Not surprisingly, Microsoft didn't launch a Google app killer. It just extended hosted Exchange and Sharepoint to all customers. Another baby-step.
In any event, TechCrunch jumps from this news to the thesis that Microsoft or Google (GOOG) will soon up the corporate cloud-computing ante by making a bid for Salesforce.com (CRM), at which point the other will make a counter-offer, driving Salesforce's stock to the moon.
Make sense?
Buying Salesforce would be a great move for Microsoft, but it's hard to see the company making that play while already trying to swallow Yahoo. (Microsoft should have made a bid for Salesforce instead of Yahoo, but never mind...).
Would Google counter? We guess that's possible. Salesforce seems a bit far afield for Google right now, even if Microsoft does try to grab it. But in addition to a software-as-a-service app platform (operating system), Salesforce would quickly provide Google with a large corporate sales and service organization--which Google currently lacks, and which it will need if it ever really wants to go after Microsoft in the enterprise.
Mike Arrington also tosses in another interesting nugget, which is that Google's App revenue is currently $400 million a year, up 10X from last year. That's peanuts relative to Office ($18 billion) and Google ($17 billion), but it's very meaningful. A stand-alone company offering Google Apps with $400 million in revenue would be valued at at least $4 billion, based on Salesforce.com's 10X revenue multiple. Not bad for a product that many people still consider irrelevant.*
*UPDATE: SAI reader consensus is that the TechCrunch's source who provided the $400 million figure is hallucinating.
See Also:
Microsoft in Denial: Google Threat is Classic Disruption (36 Comments)
Microsoft's Colossal Strategic Error: We Need to Be in Advertising
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He has netted himself 455 MILLION so far. Since going public, Salesforce.com has generated only 57 MILLION in net income.
Some like to argue that they are investing in long-term growth at the expense of short-term profitability to explain away their puny 2-3% operating margins. These are the same people that like to throw around phrases like "disruptors", "innovator's dilemma", "gorilla game", "network effects" etc etc.
Call me old-fashioned but I think the only thing they are investing in is there making themselves rich at the expense of a bunch of gullible analysts and media personages. This company has been around 8-9 years and they haven't shown us any meaningful profitability. They waste a ton of money on sales and marketing relative to R&D. There guidance for 09 is just more of the same.
This stock is way overvalued in a BEAR market.
Microsoft OR Google, eh? There's a rumor floating around that I may buy salesforce.com, as well. Anyone buy it?
Is this all it takes to run a successful blog with 694,000 RSS readers and God knows how many on-site visitors each day? Just postulate occasionally on who might buy who?
If I had known it was so easy, I would have cornered the market on wild speculation a long time ago. In fact, did you hear that Google may soon be buying...oh never mind, I'll save it for my next killer blog post, and everyone will eat up my uneducated guesses like they're the actual Word of God. Awesome.
SalesForce.com is a Java App through and through (running on giant Sun hardware). APEX/Force.com are essentially Java development environments.
This is a major obstacle to Microsoft swallowing up SalesForce.com... they would have to figure out how to convert a 10-server / 1 million user java application into a windows app.
So, even if the dollars make sense, I don't see any kind of technology fit.
Don't rule out Cisco as a dark horse here. The economics for a SF acquisition are similar to what they did with Webex.