Google Sucks Life Out of Old Media: Check Out The 2007 Share Shift

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whirlpool.jpgFor the past few quarters, we've analyzed the amazing rate at which advertising spending is moving online. Now we're able to look at full-year 2007.

Specifically, we analyzed the change in US advertising revenue at 17 major media companies from 2006 and 2007. The companies included Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), Time Warner (TWX), Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIAB), CBS (CBS), and Clear Channel (CCO). The companies span all the major advertising sectors: Online, TV, Print, Radio, and Outdoor.

Highlights:

  • Total US ad revenue across all 17 companies grew 9% from 2006 to 2007, from $53 billion to $58 billion
  • Online ad revenue grew 28%, from $14 billion to $18 billion.
  • Offline grew only 3%, from $39.5 billion to 40.6 billion. This was helped significantly by the inclusion of affiliate fees and (and global revenue) at CBS, Viacom, and News Corp.
  • Online ad revenue grew by $4 billion.
  • Offline ad revenue--in all other media--grew by $1 billion.

So advertising revenue is flowing online at a frantic rate. That's the whole story? No. Let's look at how that online revenue breaks down.

  • Online ad revenue grew 28%, or $4 billion.
  • Online ad revenue at Google grew 44%, or $2.7 billion.
  • Online ad revenue at Yahoo, Microsoft, and AOL grew only 15%, or $1.3 billion.
  • Google captured 2X as much revenue as its closest three competitors combined.

It is true that perhaps a third of Google's growth came from AdSense revenue, which is placed on third-party sites--so other companies are benefiting from this growth. But the growth on Google's properties alone still vastly exceeded the growth on AOL, Yahoo, and Microsoft.

Another fun stat:

  • The year-over-year growth of revenue on Google.com (US)--approximately $2 billion--was more than twice as much the growth of ad revenue in all of the offline media companies in this sample combined. This is such an amazing fact that it bears repeating: A single media property, Google.com (US), grew by $2 billion. All the offline media properties owned by the 13 offline media companies above, meanwhile--all of them--grew by about $1 billion.

For supporting details, please see our SAI Advertising Share Shift spreadsheet.  TechCrunch's Erick Schonfeld runs some cool graphics on the numbers.

See Also:
SAI Research Spreadsheet: The Great Ad Share Shift

Great Ad Share Shift: Q2 2007 vs Q2 2006

Google Sucks Even More Life Out of Old Media in Q3

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13 Comments

daveo said:
interesting, but when you start using words like "all" to refer to a subset that you hand picked, not sure of the value of the analysis. can you enlighten us as to the representative nature of your sample vs. the market as a whole?

Henry Blodget said:
I think the companies we've chosen are representative of the markets at large, but they're obviously not perfect proxies.

The reason we use a subset of public companies is that the numbers are precise, actual revenue figures (as opposed to the estimates drawn up for the industry at large). They are apples-to-apples on a year over year basis, so I think they are meaningful. But obviously not perfect.

eajoow said:
Where are you getting these revenue numbers? I'm looking at google finance and google had 16.5 billion in revenue. Not the 8.6 billion that the spreadsheet claims.

daveo said:
right. i guess it is this last bullet/sentence i have a problem with...
"All offling media properties--all of them--grew by about $1 billion."
don't get me wrong, others in the media biz should be scared, but i think this overstates the situation given GOOG has centralized a large portion of total online spend while offline is much more difused than your small sample accounts for...

Henry Blodget said:
These are just US numbers.

Good point Daveo--I'll clarify.

Damaged Kitten said:
First the Double Click comments and now this--Henry Blodgett is a Google Bull

Excellent high level analysis.

Tim said:
To see the other side of this equation, check out IAR and RHD...

insider said:
Two words:

Long GOOG


Google now has Double Click up its sleeve.
Second, they are opening up You Tube for ads.
Third they are aggressively targeting mobile space (in talks with major mobile players such as AirTel, Vodafoe, Singapore Telecom etc.)

So they will eat MSN and Yahoo's lunch for sure.

Analysis or not they will kick __ss.


This really shouldn't surprise anyone, this seems to be the trend.

Are we seeing the demise of big-time advertising companies such as Leo Burnett? or Will these companies just shift focus and get on the band-wagon?

Lovely that you include your spreadsheet. I'd like to see NYTimes online numbers broken out--are they available?

what do you mean by CY ads and print portion of TWX?

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