DOW 20,000 in 12 Months

Henry Blodget | March 22, 2008 10:17 AM

Forecaster James Finucane calls a "V" bottom in the US market. His logic:

Bear Stearns crescendo just like panicked bailouts of 1970, 1984, 1987, 1998, etc.
Everyone's bearish.
Alan "I'll say anything to save my reputation" Greenspan saying "worst financial crisis in my lifetime."
9 straight months of equity mutual fund outflows (a record)
Consumer confidence at lows
Individual investor bearishness at highs
Central banks in complete panic, will do anything to save growth, esp. in election year
Etc.

Finucane's guess is probably as good as anyone's. We're significantly more cautious, but hopefully we're wrong. More at Barron's...

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15 Comments

crawford (URL) said:

Mar. 22, 3:10 PM

>

Gawd! Milk shot out my nose I laughed so hard.

greg said:

Mar. 22, 6:17 PM

Where do they find these guys? This gentleman's argument for a bottom is completely flawed. The bottom callers have been out in force over the past week. Many of them are on their fifth or sixth bottom call at this point. Eventually they will be right.

greg said:

Mar. 22, 6:19 PM

And who in the hell is this guy? I have never heard of him nor was I able to find anything about him by searching the web.

Gordon said:

Mar. 22, 7:34 PM

"It was the best advice and the earliest advice. I was working at a brokerage house one summer while in college, and one of the guys who was another runner at the firm delivering securities said, "Let me tell you all you need to know about the investment business." I said, "What's that?" He said, "Nobody knows nuthin'." That sounds cynical, but we don't know what the markets hold, certainly not in the short run. We have no idea." - John Bogle

Henry Blodget said:

Mar. 22, 8:26 PM

Hard to say enough about John Bogle.

Gordon said:

Mar. 22, 8:31 PM

i love this one too -

Question: Vanguard is a not-for-profit company. If you'd organized it differently, you'd be a billionaire today. Any regrets?

Answer: "I read this story recently: There's a big cocktail party on Martha's Vineyard. Someone comes up to this writer, I think it's Joseph Heller [author of "Catch-22"], and says, "Joe, see that guy over there? He's a hedge fund manager, and he made more money yesterday than you made on all the books you have ever published." Heller looks over, pauses and says, "Yeah, but I have something he'll never have: enough." - John Bogle

how refreshing in this era of corruption and greed!

Happy Easter Henry!

Weekly Bits (URL) said:

Mar. 22, 9:58 PM

Do some Crammers's contrarian and you will make money...
I bought MBI, no kidding ;)

greg said:

Mar. 22, 11:05 PM

Weekly Bits: I hope you were following Cramer a month ago when BSC was trading around $70 because he said it was a buy since the company was going to be taken over at a $40 premium. If you went short you would have made a killing. CNBC actually had a story on their homepage titled "Cramer was right about Bear."

I have the utmost respect for Bogle.