Jerry Yang's Consolation Prize: $200+ Million Or More
As well he should! Not only does Jerry have a fiduciary duty to YHOO shareholders, but as a 4% owner himself, he's got a vested interest in raising the takeout price. If he can get MSFT's bid up to $35, his 54 million shares will be worth another $216 million. And the $40 price Yahoo has publicly insisted on would be worth another $487 million.
Meanwhile cofounder David Filo has even more at stake: The value of his 6% stake could jump by $728 million if YHOO gets its asking price.
Jerry's stake (54.1 million shares) at:
$31: $1.67 billion
$35: $1.89 billion
$40: $2.16 billion
David's stake (80.8 million shares) at:
$31: $2.5 billion
$35: $2.83 biliion
$40: $3.23 billion
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Then read my comments posted Feb 17, 1:22 PM (Henry's "Big Whoop" topic). I'd already answered your question before you'd asked it. The metaphor is: Jujitsu; you use the opponent's own power against him.
That's what I'd do. I'd use MSFT's power against them.
I'd do the most masterful job possible of illustrating just how serious a problem MSFT has, were they unable to secure Yahoo. It’s only true and it gets truer with the retelling.
I'll attempt to do this here without any advanced math, but if MSFT is unable to merge with Yahoo, then it's NOT the next 20% of search that they'd compete with Google for... IT'S YAHOO they'll compete with for it! See, MSFT would probably have to spend by a factor of at least 2-fold, maybe 4-fold or more to accomplish what they can accomplish by simply buying Yahoo's search/ad market share and their other valuable platforms. This is the true scale that MSFT has referred to.
Scale has a positive incremental efficiency with Yahoo… It has an incrementally negative efficiency without Yahoo. Assume you’re in a foot race, but you have to carry a backpack weighing 50 pounds. Who’s going to win the race?… and that assumes you’re equally matched to begin with. Who’ll win it if you are also sandbagged with the weight AND outclassed at the same time?
This business where Ballmer says "We'll just do it with or without Yahoo" is quite a bluff when you put logic and reason into it and understand it's one thing to say that... and another to pull it off. To try to attain 35-40% of the search/ad market with Yahoo still an independent competitor, MSFT will have to do the equivalent of dragging a ball and chain in its efforts to compete with Google. Therefore, they’d have to spend to compete with Google, and spend to drag the ball and chain.
Meanwhile, in that metaphorical town I've described, Google begins to slowly take control of not just the taxicabs in town that they already control 58-60% of, but the back-office operations of the storefronts as well... first the small ones who already nibble on online apps that Google has baited the hook with, and then ultimately the larger more sophisticated ones after Google has perfected the issues of access, scale, sophistication and security. To my mind these factors are not yet perfected to the extent that they are competitive with MSFT's desktop, but they will be, and sooner than most might expect.
What I've just described is a kind of creeping form of extinction that MSFT understands the concept of very well. It’s the kind of thing that will wake you up at night in a cold sweat. It's why they must have Yahoo.
Yahoo should be able to make the best case for all this, one far better than I’ve made. In one sense, Peter, they almost have to approach this as though they were anticipating an original IPO of all of Yahoo’s properties, the entire company. That separates the true value of the company from the market value, and I’ve also addressed that element of failed market pricing. That’s the only way to defeat MSFT’s assertion that it is paying a premium.
“Hold that line, men!… Fill in that breach!… Counterattack by the left flank, on my command… ready yourselves, men!… ready… Now! Hurl yourselves on them!… Hit ‘em, turn ‘em and push ‘em back!”
--
It is this exact same tactic (although modified slightly) that MSFT must use when they have decided on their final bid, one they would surely hope will secure Yahoo without a costly and destructive fight. Of course they’ll have a different objective than Yahoo in making that bid (whatever it is and if ever it changes from the current offer), but they’ll have to defend the bid when they do make it and this is probably the only manner in which they may defeat claims of excessive dilution of MSFT equity.
Assuming it proceeds to an acceptance by Yahoo, then both parties will need to make use of the very same argument. They’d all then get together with their formerly competing bankers, lobbyists and tacticians and make the pro-forma EBITDA case for the value of the combined companies.
Okay, so, let's see if I can get a grasp on this. Hmmm?... Bill Gates, world's richest man and Steve Ballmer (one of the world's richest) who head one of the richest corporations on earth pick up a copy of Barron's and discover what a serious mistake they've made, cause Joe Rosenberg says so.
Have I framed that correctly?
I think so, and I certainly have no reason to doubt the expertise of Joe Rosenberg as a consigliere, but somehow I just don't figure Gates and Ballmer to be text messaging their bankers right now to put the kibosh on the whole deal. You reckon?
No, we're in the phase of the assault where the mortars are firing on both sides, lobbing shells into the flanks, hoping to turn the enemy. Break the flank and take the interior lines and then by superior force the high ground.
I’m sure the yaboard members have perceived this Barron’s volley as though fearful daggers driven into their hearts.
You’ve been sent a white flag, yaboard. Surrender at once or risk your total devastation! Pay attention to Joe or you’ll be hauling your dead from the field under cover of a 25-flag or worse. That what you want?… You want to stare down the barrels of the biggest guns on earth?… You want to blink and watch your lines crushed?… Your forces obliterated, demoralized and neutralized? That what you want?
Then okay, Jerry and yaboardsters, launch your own counterattack now… The drifting smokeless smell of cordite is still floating in the air from the yemployee and yempholders letters and the Alibaba cannonades, but go ahead and fire them again if you think it’ll help. You haven’t taken an inch of ground yet and Murderous Murdoch’s cavalry charge was mostly a Charge of the Too-Light Brigade… poof, wet powder, no boom-boom.
Man the outposts… double the watch… rearm and tighten the lines…
Stand ready men!
I like using Yahoo than Microsoft's Msn. I feel Yahoo needs to be stronger, continue to acquire more companies and partner w/ companies. Be more creative, focus, more innovative, and unconventional approach growing fast and build to last.
EL
I'm battling with this issue as a small holder of Yahoo! stock. Do I think Yahoo! will make a better return for me as an independent company, or will Microsoft do more with it?
Unlike most big institutional investors who are looking for "an exit" and don't actually give a damn about long-term potential, I got in just before Microsoft made its bid. I bought Yahoo! willing to hold it for the next 10 years. But I wouldn't buy it if it was run by Microsoft. What have they ever done that's worked on the Web?
$31: $6,200
$35: $7,000
$40: $8,000