Yahoo Still Losing Search Share: Time To Do Deal, Focus On Display
Yahoo should do a a search deal with Microsoft now, if only so it can focus on its strengths -- on and off network advertising to its tremendously large audience.
Nielsen's October U.S. search share rankings show Yahoo's (YHOO) search queries are down 12% year over year, while Google's (GOOG) are up 8.1%. ComScore's numbers are only slightly more positive, reporting Yahoo search queries grew 7.7% year over year, but that Yahoo still lost market share since July.
Meanwhile, ComScore's October 2008 numbers show Yahoo's ad reach beating Google's 86% to 83% in the US. Yahoo also came within striking distance of Google's uniques in October, with 144 million US visitors to Google's 147 million. Those charts:
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Damn.
yahoo is bigger in reach, search and ad revenue.
maybe it wasn't worth $33 to MSFT, but at $10, this has to be better than throwing money down the toilet with MSN
Seems like Nielsen and Comscore numbers sre way off? How can Nielsen say search queries are down 12%, while Comscore grew 7.7%. Who should we believe?
When Y! reported Q3 they said search traffic was growing in the 10% range, which would lead me to believe Comscore is correct and Y! is looking better?
Thus the possible follow up act for Yahoo, after a search-only deal with Microsoft, of merging with AOL won't happen. AOL would prefer to take M's cold cash.
Then Yahoo - the evangelist of being able to offer combined search & display deals to advertisers - will find it can't, but it's new enhanced competitor can.
Yahoo would be dumb to sell search only to Microsoft. Yahoo has to dig down deep, remain independent, & begin on the path of revitalizing its own search efforts. The market will give it new time with a new CEO. It's internet operations are profitable after all, which is more than are those of Microsoft, it's stock price at enterprise value has no downside risk left. That way, eventually but inevitably, Microsoft will also return with a full acquisition offer. It then has options again.
Microsoft needs Yahoo's search share as everyone agrees. Preferably by getting the milk without buying the cow, but by buying the cow if it needs to. Every time Henry you voice the opinion that Microsoft's interest in a full acquisition of Yahoo is really 'done', so that they should grab the search only deal, you're playing Ballmer's game.
that's a pretty dumb mass generalization - if you've been to any ad conferences or upfronts, you'd know that it's all advertisers care about now, and next year most ad buys are heading this direction. i've seen it repeatedly at the last 6 'roadshow' style ad conferences i've been to on both what advertisers and buyer WANT, and what all the major online players are jockeying against eachother to offer.
think about it: it's the best of tv-style brand advertising mixed with online's targeting and measurement. more specifically, in this environment, would you dump your million buck ad budget into nbc on tv, or onto sites that have demos that match tv viewers- better yet, sites ABOUT tv shows? and know exactly who saw/clicked/converted?
recent examples: microsoft using their own network for the "i'm a pc" ads for a couple of days. also, any time apple does a massive banner take over of a dozen music sites for a two day period (guaranteed you are seeing more of these in the first week of december as they've been buying these up a ton lately). even ad age mag just pointed out that t-mobile just plastered a billion impressions on every one of aol's sites and blogs for the g phone timed with day of its release.
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