The Real Story: Facebook About to Pass MySpace in Traffic

Henry Blodget | January 17, 2008 5:36 AM

Lots of headlines yesterday about how News Corp's MySpace (NWS) is walloping Facebook in pageviews, even as MySpace's pageviews dropped year over year (caused in part by the adoption of a Facebook-like "feed" system that lets users stay on one page -- Peter Kafka explains). But TechCrunch cuts through the spin and gets the real story right:

Facebook is coming up behind MySpace like a Ferrari about to blow past a bus.

Check out this global uniques chart from TechCrunch (Comscore data):

myspacefacebook-1.png
Global-schmobal, you say -- MySpace is still clobbering Facebook on its home turf. If this were true, it would still be a footnote (the US just isn't that important anymore), but actually, it isn't. MySpace's US lead is bigger -- twice the number of US uniques -- but the lead is shrinking fast. TechCrunch's Erick Schonfeld:

myspacefacebook-2.png

See Also: MySpace: We're Not Toast
MySpace Growth Curve Over?

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mathiastck (URL) said:
Are we looking at the same chart?

In this chart image:

http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~f?id=47a939ea4b5437725e6ed3

I don't see:
"
MySpace's US lead is bigger -- twice the number of US uniques -- but the lead is shrinking fast.
"

The ratio of Myspace to facebook is decreasing, because in Oct 2006 facebook lists really low numbers. But the "lead" the number of uniques by which MySpace exceeds Facebook, stays roughly constant. IE Facebook and MySpace both increased their number of domestic uniques roughly equally.

For the 2 charts to both be accurate Facebook has to be beating MySpace in some countries. Which countries is that claimed?
Niord said:
Oh, Henry, "the US isn't that important"?.. What a disappointingly wrong observation from someone who tends to get his facts straight (as of recent, anyway, bubble 1.0 sins forgiven). Have you compared US CPMs to international CPMs? Do you really think the two might converge over the next two or three years?.. For all the buzz about international expansion, people forget that most of the ad money is still right here.

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