The Macworld Predictions Game: Time To Place Your Bets!

Dan Frommer | January 3, 2008 12:45 PM

steve-jobs-on-stage.jpgOn Tuesday, Jan. 15, at 12 noon EST, Apple chief Steve Jobs will take the stage at San Francisco's Moscone Center for his annual Macworld Expo keynote. We're pretty sure we know one of the services he will unveil -- iTunes movie rentals -- and Apple watchers have made some other predictions, such as slim Mac laptops and iPhones with more memory.

But those "inside sources" always get something wrong, and it's time to figure out what. So join us for the first annual Silicon Alley Insider Macworld Game!

Here's how to play:

  • In the comments, tell us what you think Steve Jobs will announce next Tuesday. Feel free to weight your predictions -- e.g., "very likely," "wild guess," etc., but every prediction you make counts.
  • Then tell us where Apple's stock (AAPL) will close on Tuesday, after Jobs makes his Macworld speech. Apple is trading around $195-$200, so a $20 gain or loss would represent around a 10% change in value.

Scoring:

You get 1 point for every correct prediction, and you lose 1 point for every incorrect one. Similarly, you get 1 point if your "Apple closing price" is within $10 of the actual close, and you lose 1 point if it's outside of $20. Thus, if you get three predictions right and one wrong, and come within $10 of Apple's closing price, you'll get a total of 3 points.

The player with the most accurate predictions will be crowned our 2008 Macworld Champ. Point ties will be settled by the closest estimate of Apple's closing price.

Now it's your chance to be Internet-famous. Submit your picks! And may the best Apple soothsayer win!

See Also: SAI Holiday Gift Guide: Winter iPhone Edition
Five Million iPhones By Macworld? Nope.
Apple At Macworld: Tiny MacBook, No 3G iPhone?

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Bjorn Tipling said:
Ok, here's my real prediction:

Iphone firmware with Google maps update that spots where you are, the ability to jiggle your home page icons around, and add a web url to your home.

Apple TV2 with video and HD video rentals, no longer need to use Itunes.

News that 4 million iphones have been sold.

And a new laptop called Macbook Air which can fit inside an envelope.

Closing price of apple stock: 169.04

I win!
Mark Lunn said:
Movie Rentals
Tablet pc (see gates/jobs all things d)
Docking for tablet pc
Also a new macbook 13"
Iphone firmware updates with larger memory
News on SDK
Usual news on sales
Shuffle update to 2gb/4gb
Nano selling well

Slim - 3g iphone announcement instead of fcc announcing it.

APPL = $205

Bjorn Tipling said:
Given the "There's something in the air" slogan I predict: new floating LCD screens, apple satellites beaming Steve Jobs reality disruption field all over the globe, green serin gas ala 1989 Batman in Joker Baloons shaped as apples, and finally Apple Airlines that comes with a tiny head jack in the seats so you can't plug in just any headphone. I predict a stock price of $3.08 because if any of these things really are announced then $3 for apple's stock is a very optimistic guess.
Mr. Hedley Bowes said:
Intel developing WiMax/WiFi chipset for iTouch.
Woodchuck said:
1/15/2008 AAPL Closing Price: $139.75
Brad Stewart said:
Not sure if anyone is interested, but RealityMarkets.com is running some prediction markets on Macworld announcements:

iPhone Nano or Equivalent
Macworld iTunes Movie Rentals
Macworld Leopard 10.5.2 Release
Macworld Sub Notebook
Mac Buyers Guide

Gerald said:
Almost certain: iTunes movie rentals.

Very likely: A smaller laptop.

Makes sense: iPhone 1.1.3

Wacky-ass guess: WiFi Video Phone. Works over Jabber networks and iChat.

Sleeper: A whole new Macintosh. Not just a re-designed iMac, but a whole different machine.

Stock price: End of Day: $201
Suiname said:
Certain: all the safe stuff everyone above me has said.
Wacky-ass guess: Bring Back the Newton!
Stock price: AAPL will close at $195.
Michael said:
:: iTunes movie rentals (a lock)
:: Updated AppleTV optimized to work with rental service--possible hardware redesign, but certainly an upgraded processor.
:: iPhone 1.1.3 firmware
:: OLED cinema displays

Close at 210
Julien said:
- Opening with iPhone sales figures in the 4-5 million range. 'We're very happy'.
- Mention of the SDK ('we listen to our users'), explains the SDK will be available in february, possible little joke about android relased too early.
(no more iPhone related news)
- Switch to iTunes: sales figures (very happy again), mentions NBC, announcement of a new version of iTunes and HD movies sales and (new) rentals. 2 studios. Prices from 2 to 5 bucks. US only
- A head of studio makes a short appearance on stage.
- demo of the new movies (ratatouille?)
- Now the Mac: Leopard sales figures. we're very happy...'phenomenal'
- mac pro. Design perfect but getting old. Introducing new mac pros; new processors, better specs...blu-ray as an option except standard on the higher end model.
- demo of the speed
- better specs, but still starts at 2499$
- new dispays (20/23/30), taking a clue from the design of the imac and new mac pros
- macbook pro: most beautiful notebook ever, 'the competition never got to our level in 5 years'
- new 15 and 17 inch MBP: new architecture; slightly slimmer, with a new design that is an evolution rather than an evolution (like the new iMac); new feature: multi-touch trackpad. SSD in option for extra $$$. Same starting prices
- they appear from the floor
- one more thing: Macbook pro 13' 'light has never been so powerful' or something like that. 32Gb SSD as standard, more as a BTO option; multitouch and backlight keboard included. price: 1799.
- he grabs one from under a cloak and holds it to show how light and small it really is. camera flashes...
- thank you; we applaud employees in the room who stand up
- John Mayer? (please let it be someone else)
Ron said:
Macworld predictions:

Mentions of Leopard sales, Mac, iPod, and iPhone sales. If so, AAPL heads for the Moon.

Jobs anticipates iPhone sales will reach 5m before end of this month.

Speaking of iPhone, here's a new model with 16GB and new pricing for 8GB model. New iPhone 1.1.3 software with cool new features. Demo.

Apple TV sales haven't been that great but we're about to change that today. Announces movie rental downloads from iTunes, Fox dude comes on stage. New software for Apple TV, new versions of iTunes and QuickTime. Demo. You can order movie downloads right from your TV. No computer needed. Announces studios participating in the movie rentals so far, more on the way.

New MacBook Pros. New design, thinner, lighter, uses latest Intel 45nm Core 2 Duo. Multitouch trackpad possible. Blu-ray option possible.

Oh, and there's one more thing…

Unveils impossibly thin, unbelievably light new MB/MBP, the rumored sub-notebook. No moving parts. Multitouch trackpad.

Maybe:

New OLED keyboard, keys change depending on app.

New iMac-like dock for MacBooks.

New Mac Pro using new Xeon quad-core CPUs, new Blue-ray option. May be introduced at a Final Cut Pro event the following day, along with Apple's new Phenomenon software, the successor to Shake.

Closing price for 1/15: 218
marco said:
itunes movie rentals
new iphone firmware features presentation

appleTV / macmini combo device replacing the separate product lines

updated macbook pros (SSD drive option, CPU) including a borderline-sublaptop-size model

multitouch touchpad for all notebooks

closing price: 200
ben s said:
Certain: Blu-ray support going fwd for all Mac's
Nate Westheimer said:
Definitely: New firmware release for iPhone (1.1.3)
Almost Certain: new .mac
Very likely: .mac integrated with iPhone/touch
Probably: Tablet
Chance in hell, but still a chance: 3G speeds for future iPhones
Closing price: $210
ben s said:
Makes sense: re-vamp .mac - aligned with facebook, google, or someone serious.

Makes sense: More wireless functionality from iPhone (BT, wi-fi)

Almost certain small-form laptop with that huge tracking area

SleeperSome other new consumer electronic - camera, etc

Makes sense Updated mac-mini or appleTV with new hardware or major upgrade to functionality.

Cayocosta said:
AAPL to buy WMG
$180
Dan Frommer said:

My picks:

  • Almost certain: iTunes movie rentals. Many of the details have already been leaked, and Netflix has already countered. So if Jobs doesn't announce some sort of rental service, Apple slips behind.
  • Very likely: A smaller laptop. While I'd love to buy one, I'm not convinced Apple is ready to announce a micro tablet (iPod touch on steroids?), but the company's laptop line has been missing a junior-sized unit since the 12-inch PowerBook was discontinued.
  • Confident: High-end Macs. The Mac Pro is overdue for an update, as are Apple's LCD displays. We anticipate a faster Mac Pro with a Blu-Ray disc drive, and Apple displays with built-in iSight cameras and HDMI support to moonlight as HDTVs.
  • Makes sense: Some sort of iPhone status/product update. We don't think Apple has sold 5 million, but maybe 3 or 4 million. We already know 3G iPhones are coming later this year, so Apple might tide people over by doubling the memory in current iPhones to 16 gigabytes without increasing the price. We should also see some software improvements for the iPhone, like maybe an update that works better with Exchange email servers or games that take advantage of the multi-touch screen.
  • Wacky-ass guess: Just as Microsoft is testing Office 2008 for Mac, Apple will make iWork, its MSFT Word- and PowerPoint-killer free. Why not?
  • Sleeper: Updated Xserve servers. Macworld is a consumer-focused show, but these are Apple's most neglected machines and need a speed bump.
  • Stock price: Apple faithful will be pleased with Jobs' incremental upgrades, but he won't blow the roof off like he did last year with the iPhone. AAPL will close at $190.

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