In Battle For Political Ad Dollars, Old Media Wins

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Mediaweek has canvassed online publishers and found they aren't seeing a bounty of political ad spending, despite the fact that presidential candidates will set a record on ad spending this year. What's the disconnect?

We think this is fairly straightforward: While the Web is great at finding, say, a car buyer in Michigan or South Carolina, we suspect that it's not so good at motivating your political base in those states. Or at identifying and persuading swing voters in those states.

We also don't expect things to change this summer, when the parties will have settled on nominees and the race goes national. That's when the campaigns will still be targeting swing districts within swing states, and no media can do that on a big scale better than local TV. Another strike against the Web: it skews young, and young people don't reliably show up at the voting booth.

Even political web guru Michael Bassik of MSHC Partners conceded to the FT:"Television advertising is still the most effective method to reach and persuade voters. That is why campaigns are spending the majority of their money on TV."

So while the candidates are incresingly using Web tools to organize and raise money, they'll end up spending that money offline, most likely on local TV.

Related: Prediction: 2008 Big Year For Local Advertising
TNS: Olympics, Political Prop Up Ad Spending In '08


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6 Comments

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Stephen Fraser said:
It's true that the broadcast model for advertising offers advantages that search and other forms of online marketing can't match, specifically increasing brand awareness within a very limited timeframe. But the most important concept in marketing is return-on-investment. In political terms, ROI would be the cost of campaigning in a local market divided by the number of votes the candidate gets in that market. The ROI --even for political candidates-- is always much, much better with online advertising than with TV or print. But there's an important difference: while that calculation is easily determined for a widget (my product costs $20; my profit is $10; I can spend $5 for every new customer), it is almost impossible to determine for a political candidate. What is the value of a single vote? A hundred votes? Ask Al Gore. If you are a company selling widgets, spending $500,000 on TV ads in Michigan would not make sense because you could spend the same money much more effectively online. But for a candidate who needs Michigan in order to stay in the race, you may very well need to spend that and more.
Count Choculllla said:
Perhaps the candidates put their internet money and strategies towards free options like facebook and myspace? Or put their money into developing their own websites and search engine optimizers.

Why would they advertise on say NY Times, when the Times is writing about them already? Is the web too proactive, as opposed to reactive for the candidates to spend money here. I would imagine people are more interested in seeking the candidates than they are in being sought out by the candidates.

Besides, you guys know as well as anyone, Ron Paul already owns the internet. Why bother even trying to encroach on his territory?

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