Microsoft Xbox Live: Actually a Real Business Now

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Microsoft (MSFT) devoted most of its CES presentations to a sexy but small sideshow--the Entertainment and Devices division--but some of the Xbox statistics were impressive, especially in light of Microsoft's efforts to strengthen its position in The Battle for the Living Room.

E&D head Robbie Bach announced that Xbox Live hit 10 million subscribers ahead of schedule. Most of these subscribers pay $49 a year, which suggests that the recurring revenue portion of Xbox's revenue is approaching $500 million a year. These are small numbers relative to Microsoft's primary profit and revenue engines--Windows and Office--but they're significant.

The Xbox Live subscribers should be especially valuable as gaming consoles continue to morph into multi-use devices (DVRs, DVD players, perhaps one day even regular TV tuners). 10 million represents critical mass, and the major content providers and cable companies will now have to deal with Microsoft, whether or not they want to.


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Peter Kafka said:
It is bothersome that MSFT won't be clearer about Live #s. But there are certainly a lot of people *using* Xbox Live. Consider that Halo 3, which is designed primarily for online use, has sold 8.1 million copies over the Xmas season. So even if most of those Halo 3 players are using the free (silver) service instead of the paid (gold) version, MSFT will have its hooks into many millions of gamers.
Alex said:
Microsoft offers various forms of payment (monthly, quarterly, annually) for Xbox Live. Sounds to me like he's saying most are signing up annually. Though I wouldn't be surprised if the intention is to make it sound like there are more Gold subscribers than there really are.

The simple fact that the company is reluctant to publicly announce how many people are paying for the service tells me the numbers aren't as glowing as they'd like everyone to believe.

Of course, paying or not, all Live members are able to download video content. I believe the only difference between the two tiers is that with Gold you get to play games online and download demos earlier.
Henry Blodget said:
Alex, thanks. Smart observation. I'd like to dig into the subscription numbers more--and Microsoft has not provided much clarity here--but here's what Robbie Bach said on the call yesterday:

"Let’s drill down a little bit on what we see going on Xbox Live. Certainly the largest form of monetization is subscriptions. Predominately that’s $49 a year, there’s a few other plans that you can be on, but most, the vast majority of people who are subscribers, what we call Gold Members are on a $49 a year plan."

It's possible he misspoke or exaggerated, but that's where the "most" came from. Would be great to know churn, gross vs. net, packages, etc. But overall, it still seems like an impressive number.
Alex said:
Henry, just wondering, where do you see that "most" of the 10 million members of Xbox Live are people who are paying for the Gold service? As far as I know, Microsoft has steered well clear of breaking its online population down into paying and non-paying members.

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