Introducing The SAI MSFT-YHOO Bid Calculator!

Henry Blodget | February 7, 2008 4:53 PM

With every uptick or downtick in Microsoft's stock price, the value of its Yahoo bid changes. Since we're now officially tired of punching the numbers into our calculator, we imagine you might be, too. So we're pleased to bring you the SAI MSFT-YHOO Bid Calculator!

Here's a reminder of the deal terms:

Microsoft has offered to buy Yahoo for a 50/50 cash/stock deal composed of $31 of cash and 0.9509 Microsoft shares per Yahoo share. Thus far, as Microsoft investors express their distaste for the deal, Microsoft's stock has mostly tanked--and the value of its Yahoo bid has dropped.

Unless Microsoft adjusts the exchange rate (which will result in more dilution to Microsoft shareholders) or changes the percentage of cash compensation (which will result in higher debt and interest payments), the current value of the offer for Yahoo shareholders will change.  The current value is here. (We've set the spreadsheet to update automatically every few minutes.)



See Also:
Microsoft's Bid for Yahoo Down to $29
A Yahoo White Knight Emerges! Microsoft's Unhappy Shareholders

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Based on the offer letter (link above), my understanding is that the deal is 50% stock, 50% cash. Individual shareholders get to choose which they want, but the overall comp is 50/50.
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jolly (URL) said:
Chart link, again, this time as a direct link:

http://chartmechanic.com/chart.jsp?c=10918

Prices are automatically updated nightly.
jolly (URL) said:
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James said:
Ok,

So the initial offer was $31/share of YHOO, and the total is claimed to be $44.6 billion.

But, google/yahoo finance show only 1.33 billion shares outstanding.

31 x 1.33 is not $44.6??

Help??
Henry Blodget said:
Does Heather have any information, or is that just a wild guess? I heard this morning she was predicting an increase to $34 a share. I'd love to know the basis for that, too, if anyone's heard it.
Mark B said:
Microsoft may fix the offer at $31 before pursuing an increase, so the value doesn't decline with its shares UBS's Heather Bellini said.
joeblow said:
JPB,

Lawdy!...but that boy do be single-minded, don'tchee-know.
--
Henry, you need a set of instructions and a guard dog. The instructions read: "Quit-the-price-modeling-because-it's-not-that-complex."

The guard dog is to bite you if you start modeling again. Quit it, for the love'a... Quit!

I was hoping you'd take the earlier softball I tossed you and put together a listing of MSFT's business divisions in the sense of the potential for spinning them off, holding parts of each and becoming a holding company.

Since you haven't, I'll have to do it myself and run the risk of showing my ignorance. I'll be back later to do it. It's something similar to your workout suggestion but far more revolutionary.
Henry Blodget said:
Joe, sorry, but still don't think I follow.

Let's assume MSFT stays where it is and every intelligent Yahoo shareholder opts to receive the cash (which is currently worth about $5 more per share). Then, according to the current terms of the deal, each shareholder will receive half cash, half stock.

If, for some reason, some percentage want stock, then the rest will get a mix of cash and stock such that the total comp still equals 50% cash / 50% stock.

So what I'm still missing is where the complex modeling is. It's the overall value that matters. Right?
joeblow said:
Blodget Bludgeons.

I'm afraid that JPB tends to poetry, whether he noetry or not.

Come on, Henry... get off the spreadsheet... at least for this and get back to my task.

Don't you want to entertain my exciting and provocative analysis?

I need you to set the framework.

What?... Do I beg?
joeblow said:
Blodget Bludgeons.

I'm afraid that JPB tends to poetry, whether he noetry or not.

Come on, Henry... get off the spreadsheet... at least for this and get back to my task.

Don't you want to entertain my exciting and provocative analysis?

I need you to set the framework.

What?... Do I beg?
JPB said:
Henry,
I'm not sure why you are bludgeoning this offer, especially MSFT share price performance. Wouldn't you agree the price of most acquirers declines pre-deal? Couldn't you also make a case that MSFT has lost roughly 1/4 its value since the first of the year, independent of this announcement? Then you need to explain volumes since removing the one-day spike suggests volumes have been on a par with the broader market since the beginning of the year.

I'm not convinced that MSFT shareholders are as distressed as you are by the offer.
John
Henry Blodget said:
Based on the offer letter (link above), my understanding is that the deal is 50% stock, 50% cash. Individual shareholders get to choose which they want, but the overall comp is 50/50.

joeblow said:
I am joeblow.

I regret that I erroneously posted as "jowblow."

I think it's the BudLights.
joeblow said:
I mean... it ain't rocket science, is it?

Let X = buyout value…

Then a reasonable estimate is therefore:

X = [$31 + (.9509 x MSFT mkt price)] divided by 2.

Isn’t that right?… If the shareholders split their decisions 50/50?… Isn’t that right?

Only, they won’t do so, and thus we have to make the additional assumptions that YHOO holders might prefer either: 1) – all cash, or 2)- all stock… and thus some would receive not-preferred shares and some would receive not-preferred cash.

Are you then able to differentiate the value according to these two alternatives?… or integrate the potential range of possibilities?

Give it a try. I've got time.
Henry Blodget said:
Thanks, Jow!
jowblow said:
Sophomoric.

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