Yes, Virginia, Tech Spending Does Drop in Recessions

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Some cheerful chatter out there about how tech spending won't drop in a recession because companies need computers, Blackberries, etc., as much as they need, say, electricity. Keep dreaming. Tech spending got smashed in the last recession, and it will get smashed in this one.

Evidence? This chart produced by the late, great Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Milunovich. (No, thankfully Steve is not dead. He's just left Wall Street for public relations). The year-over-year growth of tech spending is the fat blue line. Recessions are shaded gray.

TechSpendinginRecession.jpg




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Henry Blodget said:
I don't think enough spending has migrated to subscription yet to save it. But bigger point fair--in previous recessions, tech spending growth just flattened ("smashed" down from +8% to 0%). It was only in the latest that it actually shrank.

newbee said:
Smashed? Won't the maturation of the tech sector preclude it from a similar fate of the 2001-2002 downturn? It’s as if tech companies (especially large-cap) have moved to a subscription/ installed base revenue model which makes sales less dependent upon annual capital budgets. This would make them somewhat immune to a recession, wouldn’t it?

linkerjpatrick said:
Interestingly enough my business actually plans to spend more on tech in 2008 that we did in 2007 and in 2007 we spend more than previous years. I run a very small business that currently has only two people (my wife and myself) We do outsource some projects however. We plan on investing in tech in the areas of storage, customer relationship management, media production and security.

I lot of what we want to offer revolves around alternatives to travel like e-commerce, portable media, etc.

I think a lot of companies no matter the size should look at the benefits of tech in troubling times. Maybe not the kind of tech involves huge business growth like constructing server farms but rather tech that makes one more efficient and helps one get more bang for the buck.

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