Iowa: Beginning Of The End For Ron Paul*
Today's Iowa caucus will solve little in the grand electoral scheme: Pundits predict that Hillary Clinton will finish third among Democrats, while Mike Huckabee is supposed to win the GOP race, and that none of that will matter much in the long run.
But we're confident in predicting one concrete result: A disappointing finish for Internet phenomenon Ron Paul. We know, we know: Paul is already President of the Internet. He's raised a ton of money online in the fourth quarter, likely more than any other Republican candidate. He kills in YouTube views, MySpace friends and Facebook supporters.
In the end, though, he's likely to be another data point in one of the more confounding questions in Internet-age politics: Why doesn't online support translate into real-world votes?
Recall that Howard Dean's failed 2004 campaign, which had huge support on the Web, actually started faltering before his infamous "scream": Dean made that speech after receiving disappointing results in Iowa.
And Iowa remains particularly hard for campaigns that don't have strong real-world organizations. Rather than just showing up at a voting booth and pulling a lever, the caucuses are a face-to-face affair: Voters have to show up and then sit around and kibitz for hours. It's one thing for Ron Paul's motivated niche to harangue message boards and send Paypal donations. It's another but do they want to show up at a church or community center and talk to people?
The good news for Paul is that's he polling well in independent-minded New Hampshire, so his supporters will be able to show improvement next week. But the end result will be the same: No one has figured out how to turn Web fame into ballot results, and Ron Paul isn't the guy with the answer.
*Update: As expected, Ron Paul was crushed in Iowa
Earlier: Fox Snub Boosts Ron Paul
Ron Paul: Still President Of The Web
But we're confident in predicting one concrete result: A disappointing finish for Internet phenomenon Ron Paul. We know, we know: Paul is already President of the Internet. He's raised a ton of money online in the fourth quarter, likely more than any other Republican candidate. He kills in YouTube views, MySpace friends and Facebook supporters.
In the end, though, he's likely to be another data point in one of the more confounding questions in Internet-age politics: Why doesn't online support translate into real-world votes?
Recall that Howard Dean's failed 2004 campaign, which had huge support on the Web, actually started faltering before his infamous "scream": Dean made that speech after receiving disappointing results in Iowa.
And Iowa remains particularly hard for campaigns that don't have strong real-world organizations. Rather than just showing up at a voting booth and pulling a lever, the caucuses are a face-to-face affair: Voters have to show up and then sit around and kibitz for hours. It's one thing for Ron Paul's motivated niche to harangue message boards and send Paypal donations. It's another but do they want to show up at a church or community center and talk to people?
The good news for Paul is that's he polling well in independent-minded New Hampshire, so his supporters will be able to show improvement next week. But the end result will be the same: No one has figured out how to turn Web fame into ballot results, and Ron Paul isn't the guy with the answer.
*Update: As expected, Ron Paul was crushed in Iowa
Earlier: Fox Snub Boosts Ron Paul
Ron Paul: Still President Of The Web
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Not too bad for a Republican amongst Christian conservatives who overall support the Iraq war. Oh yeah, he did win Jefferson County didn't he?
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http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/01/ron-paul-crushed-in-iowa.html
Well first you need to understand the difference between online media and off line media.
Online media is a level playing field. IE there is no favorites there is no buy in or lock in. my site nerys.com a do nothing personal site has as much "potential" exposure as "abc.com" or "alleyinsider.com"
IE all these sites have EQUAL potential power. (this is one of the reason they HATE the internet and with a passion and desire SO BADLY to have a "tiered" internet. A tiered structure would permit the ELIMINATION of this level playing field.
Second Online happens "all at once" when I step on the ground in my neighborhood and yell "whatever" my exposure is as far as my voice can carry.
When I say something ONLINE my voice has a theoretical limit of ZERO. its potential is unlimited and it "persists" as long as I leave it online.
SO when a "group" of like minded people get together online the potential energy there is incredible when its tapped because you in theory have access to a NATIONS worth of people. ie your immediate and eventual potential audience is huge. its also VERY easy to MAINTAIN that audience. with websites podcasts RSS news feeds and simple e-mail its potentiall very easy to MAINTAIN that audience. (another reason they HATE the internet)
NOW lets compare that with OFF LINE media. There is no such thing as free press. Lets get that straight. It no longer exists. Sure I can hand out flyers but what kind of penetration can I have? As an individual physically and financially I am SEVERELY handicapped compared to multi million and multi BILLION dollar news and media agencies.
There are only 2 real ways to translate ONLINE numbers into OFF LINE numbers.
#1 is with OFF LINE MEDIA. This is the primary way of doing this. Well as you say above with no free press we have ZERO chance of making REAL penetration here. IE our penetration is at the mercy of those who OWN the media we want to penetrate.
Note how even if you HAVE the money they can simply REFUSE your money (the constitution societies fox commercial that was rejected is an example of this)
Note how he made 4 million and 6 million dollars in SINGLE DAYS. the 6 million was more money in a single day than ANY candidate has EVER earned in a single day in ALL OF US HISTORY and yet he was virtually ignored.
WHAT CAN we do about that? right no at least we can not FORCE THEM to give him attention.
I also notice a recurring theme WHEN THEY feel "pressured" to give him attention they do there best to belittle him. Online you hardly ever hear REPUBLICAN Ron Paul etc.. its also incorrectly reported as "LIBERTARIAN" ron paul. IE they know that "libertarian" is a "small" image in the minds of people. many dem/repub voters will summarily IGNORE any information the moment they see the word libertarian attached to it.
On television so far for me its been 100% (except for ONE) where they ALWAYS bring up will you run as libertarian or independent? this not only adds the "tainting" (and thats what it is right or wrong) notion of libertarian but they SEED the notion to the audience that he has already lost. That he has already lost any chance of getting anywhere so lets talk about after this inevitable loss.
They will not even attempt to give him a FAIR shake on any level.
The other way to translate online numbers to offline numbers is much much harder to accomplish. ESPECIALLY when you factor in the literal "deeducation" and "sheepification" of the population over the last 50 years or so.
We DELUDE ourselves into accepting whatever the media and politicians give us as fact (otherwise Bush and company would have been in prison many many years ago and this would all be moot)
This other way is by brute force. We shove the truth in people's faces with enough quantity and evidence to make it difficult for them to ignore it and not "want" to react to it.
This is not so easy. You see MASSIVE online numbers does NOT mean massive DENSITY. IE what percentage of our massive numbers are withing practical "range" of the iowa caucuses ? IF we get even a fraction of a significant number I will be very impressed. I would love to goto iowa to help out but I am in eastern PA and do not have anywhere close to the financial means to travel there. EVEN if the my room and board were covered somehow by say a local friend (non existent btw) the airfare is WELL beyond my means and the FUEL costs are also well beyond my means. While I can physically handle the drive (I have gone much further before alone) the roughly $700 is FUEL to get there and back is WELL beyond my means.
You see without MEDIA backing developing brute force backing takes a lot more energy because its not needed for EACH INDIVIDUAL to provide his or her own many times very expensive physical backing.
They know this which is why they are not too concerned with "backlash" by major media "black out" of a candidate. Those of us WILLING or even ABLE to exert any energy can not have all that great an effect. To impact a multi billion dollar company requires a multi million CITIZEN effort. Its a lot easier to throw some money or simple "decisions" at a problem than it is to organize motivate and mobilize a significant number of people.
This is one of the things that SO impresses me with ron paul. His message is "waking" people up. People are standing up and going "what the hell is going on here"
They even if just a small number are finally starting to "question" the company line.
When we can have impeachment for lying about a blow job and then "its off the table" for someone guilty of MANY counts of high treason, well we have a problem don't we.
So there you go. Not really that short and no where NEAR complete but an explanation as to why it is so hard to take online number and translate them into offline numbers.
IE to put boots on the grounds to speak. Cyber boots requires nothing more than clicking a mouse or at worst typing a url.
Boots on the ground requires MONEY and SUPPORT and ORGANIZATION in mass quantities. THIS is a lot harder for "individuals" to do. Another reason this campaign is so inspiring. RON PAUL is doing "NOTHING" to support this movement and thats not a BAD THING. He is simply putting forth the message and WE THE PEOPLE are doing what we are supposed to be doing.
The problem is established media is "actively" and "intelligently" resisting us and TRYING intentionally to "belittle" our efforts to "black out" our efforts.
They have money and physical CONTROL over the media outlets. We can never beat them on that level.
What we do have that they can NEVER take from us is NUMBERS. the problem is as SIMPLE as that is the resources needed to ORGANIZE AND MOTIVATE those numbers well thats never been done before. Ever.
The Internet is so powerful because it is the FIRST platform that is COMPLETELY user UNBIASED and as long as we PREVENT bias such as a tiered internet its impossible for them to "control" this medium.
The internet has the potential to be the most powerful tool in the history of mankind for the furtherment of liberty and freedom. It gives EVERYONE an equal voice. This has a downside ie its the same as the UPSIDE EVERYONE HAS A VOICE. so you get a lot of chaff but at least NOW the BIG media has no more voice or CHAFF than the individual and we are a lot more numerous than they are.
We are also fantastic "filters" ie we filter each other VERY well.
WE can filter THEM far faster and effectively than they can "attempt" to overwhelm us or dilute us with flak.
BUT its going to require "enough" people waking up for this to take off. I am not sure if this Ron Paul Movement has enough minds behind it to reach this critical mass. I can only HOPE that it does.
EVEN IF Ron Paul proves to be a not so great president enough minds will be woken up that WE THE PEOPLE FOR THE PEOPLE will "fix" the problems ourselves. We will demand and GET the solutions to our problems.
BTW your forms here have issues. My post failed (I am assuming the 60+ minutes it took on and off to type this was part of that) thankfully I had the forsight to COPY my text as I would NEVER have had the will to type it all again from scratch. :-)
LOL! I'm a Paul supporter but that was a helluva roast!
http://bertc.com/three_crows.htm
_/\_
You really haven't got a clue.
RP2008
No, Ron Paul will not win the Iowa caucuses; I expect it to be a photo-finish between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. But I do expect Ron Paul to finish a solid fourth, with a double-digit percentage.
And as time progresses, Ron Paul will establish himself, along with Romney and McCain, as the first-tier Republican candidates with national appeal. Huckabee dominates the Bible Belt, but falls flat in the Northeast. Giuliani owns the Northeast (excepting Mass.), but is a flop in the Bible Belt. Fred Thompson is disappearing fast.
On the contrary, Peter, Darren's statements make it clear just how ridiculous and unfounded racist accusations are when directed at Ron Paul. Such tacticts are a sad attempt to discredit a candidate who has been consistent and principled for his entire career.
Huckabee is a silver tongued devil who knows what to say AND people are looking for someone to believe in who sounds Presidential. He says he wants to eliminate the IRS, which sounds a little like Ron Paul. The problem is Huckabee's record. And the same with Romney. Who knows what they will really do if elected? With Ron Paul you know EXACTLY what he will try to do. Save the economy and save the country. Paul knows how. But more people in Iowa who the polls say are likely to vote now believe Huckabee.
My own numbers are simply reasoned from this: Zogby says that Ron Paul will get 10% of the votes based on his polling. ~100,000 people will be voting in the Republican primary so 10,000 votes. ~200,000 in the Democratic primary. The population of Iowa is 3 million. Half are adults so 1.5 million. (10%+ are libertarians - 1% always voted that way in the past. That is 15,000 people or your base vote.
2/3 of Americans hate the Iraq war. That is higher in Iowa. 1/3 of Republicans hate the war. The war is a big deal. Only Ron Paul or Kucinich really oppose the war.
People lie to OR avoid pollsters OR they have cell phones. I know I do. Ron Paul supporters are very motivated and very concerned about the impending collapse of the economy from the policies of the status quo. This includes the nasty and idiotic Iraq war which is bankrupting us.
This is it folks. It is now or never for this generation. People in America, who can think, AND even though most choose not to, MUST recognize their need to vote tonight for a doctor and Congressman from Texas who knows how to save the country.
If you are a Ron Paul supporter you will vote even though there is a 9 degree wind-chill index tonight at 7pm. And the entire world says that your candidate will not win. You know he is your only chance to save the Republic. It is time. They know it and they will vote. So I am dreaming of 20%. We shall see.
Hopefully, that will wake up the MSM who will really start smearing Ron Paul then. Up to now they have just been playing. MSM smearing will help in an internet age. All smears can be challenged quickly. Ron Paul will be in all the debates or the MSM will look silly once he starts doing better than the other "top tier" candidates in real voting.
We shall see in a few hours if the dream is a reality.
You may want to prepare yourself to eat your words in a few hours. What basis do you have for prematurely calling the Iowa caucus a failure for Ron Paul?
The fundamental difference between a caucus and a primary is that _before_ the votes are cast, voters must hear each candidate's supporters make a case for their candidate. Open debate and discussion are encouraged: something in which a "character" candidate, like Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney will underperform because their views are hollow and frankly irrelevant to their campaign. On the flip side, a case for liberty, personal freedom and limited government also happens to be a case for Ron Paul, and I think that Iowa's voters will be very receptive to such a platform.
We shall see. You may be right about one thing when you call supporters of Dr. Paul "fanatical": they ALL will go to the polls.
All of that said... really, what's the point of even talking about this at all. We are hours away from knowing.
It seems to me that Ron Paul is a very well informed constitutionalist. Personal liberty and a decentralized government are of extreme importance to me. Ron Paul has my vote.
I have sound proof.
He was seen at Costco. Don Black is a member at Costco. Peter Verkooijen must be a white supremacist/neo-nazi.
I went to all of your links and you are a joke. That Don Black went to a Ron Paul fundraiser and posed for a picture with him means...........NOTHING. I have a picture with Dr. Paul at a fundraiser and Dr. Paul has no idea who I am.
Dr. Paul had no idea who he was posing with when that picture was taken.
What are the real reasons you have sold your soul to the neocons?
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22ron+paul%22%2C+%22hillary+clinton%22%2C+%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22rudi+giuliani%22%2C+%22mike+huckabee%22&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.ia&date=ytd&sort=0
Keep talking to yourself, pal.
I look forward to seeing you eat shit.
Tonight.
Also you may note that Zogby now has Paul in a deadheat for 3rd place in Iowa at 10%. Considering how little of Paul's support is included in the poll demo. - it seems incredibly unlikely that he won't get at least 10% in Iowa tonight.
I predict MUCH higher.
People!! Please wake up and drag your rear end into that voting precinct and cast your vote for Ron Paul. Your children and grandchildren will thank you for it.
You see government power is like Frodo's ring. The only person qualified to carry it is the one bent on destroying it. Give it to Ron Paul.
You may be right about this. However my gut tells me your days as a prognosticator are about to come to an abrupt end.
I'm guessing the Iowa voters are pretty much like voters all over the country. We want Ron Paul along with his platfrom to be President of the United States of America.
It's really only the globalists and their media shills who don't want Ron Paul to be elected.
Speak with you tomorrow.
Go Ron Paul!!!
I trust that on Friday youll be posting a new article here in which youll be eating large quantities of Crow over your bad prediction. Dont take it personally though, most of the media doesnt see it coming either, because they dont understand the potential power of the FIRST TIME VOTER to these primaries and caucuses.
This country is in desperate need for change and apathy is getting the best of us
The second we feel like fixing it is too much of a 'crackpot' mentality is the second this country has officially pulled the trigger on itself
welcome to the nanny state...god help us all
Ron Paul with Stormfront
Stormfront at Ron Paul forums
el-Fattah backs Ron Paul
Ron Paul insists: 'Israel encourages Americans to go into Iran'
What does this have to do with Silicon Alley anyway?
The core idea is that you own your own life, and that no one else has a claim on your life, your liberty or your income.
Anyone who has a problem with that is likely a fool, or evil. I would like to believe the former!
Yes. We do want to, and we have. If you had any idea of the scope of what we're doing in the physical world outside of silicon alley (what is it you do for a living again?), you'd be pretty impressed.
Anyway, I guess we'll see, won't we?
I am so sorry for people like the writer of this article, to degrade themselves just for some dirty money of an Australian billioner, a neocon, globalist and ani-American; It is so sad that everyday I see those articles of some sold out souls (which believe the people of their own country on matters of peace, prosperity and happiness for all) which to keep their filty jobs, have to shut up and obey the dirty bosses that they have, and have to ignore the killings, murders and death of humanity in their own country and abroad.
Please give of your job, feel some responsibilty and join ( We ) the people, we will take care of you and your family, be free and tell the truth; no matter if you like Paul or not, does not matter.
The message is important, not the guy.
that is why everybody joins Dr Paul, they join this movement to take back their country, all the walks of people as you see everyday, they do not agree with Paul in all issues, but all have a common ground which is Truth and Freedom.
So wake up, accept your shortcomings and join the movement , it is for all
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/alleyinsider.com?site0=alleyinsider.com&site1=ronpaulforums.com&y=r&z=3&h=300&w=610&range=1y&size=Medium
Ron Paul's forums get more traffic than this entire website. Your ranking has been tanking.
The same goes for all the rest of the blogging Paul haters out there. They are all tanking and being eclipsed in traffic from www.ronpaulforums.com.
And surprise surprise, just like the rest of the sites out there, once the forums passes the site in traffic, a Ron Paul smear appears. So predictable.
Also, that thing about caucuses? Not true.
While I am confident that Paul supporters would hold up well in your version of the caucus (as many are more savvy than anything I have seen from other camps), they don't have to worry about it.
In the Democratic caucus, you must publicly voice your allegiance, narrow down candidates, convince others and vote again while trying to get a list of candidates with over 15% of the vote.
In the Republican caucus, you vote via secret ballot. And you leave. And while platforms are presented, you don't have to voice your choice in public.
Here's hoping that Paulites can deal with all that face-to-face interaction.
The Ron Paul Revolution recognizes that not everything boils down to winning the presidency alone. Ron Paul himself has said that he cannot do what he wants to do by himself. You fail to see what this movement is really all about. This movement is planting the seeds of salvation for this country. Even if Ron Paul does not win the presidency, his supporters will go on to produce the next Ron Paul.
You also forget that the Internet was not the same 4 years ago when Howard Dean fizzled out. Many more Americans have shut off their televisions, and rely upon the Internet for news and information. Many more Americans have learned that life without the idiot box is much better. Yes, Dean was an Internet sensation, but you fail to see that the Ron Paul Revolution goes far beyond the Internet.
Yes we expected a fair, balanced and well researched article from this alley! That's how LOONY we are!
Oh Yes....COOL-AID hmmmmmmmmm
http://bigheadnyc.com/2007/11/27/did-learmonth-strike-out-at-variety/
"No one has figured out how to turn Web fame into ballot results, and Ron Paul isn't the guy with the answer"
I'm not sure I agree with that assessment. Although it's true that Howard Dean disappeared right back into the Democratic machinery and Deaniacs simply shifted to other candidates, I don't think Ron Paul is the same type of animal. Love him or hate him, Paul definitely represents a different choice for voters [especially Republican voters] and I think the internet craze is just a manifestation of his actual on-the-ground popularity - not the end-all, be-all of his support.
I also think a moderate showing in Iowa could be his beginning not his end, because I agree that he stands to do better in places like New Hampshire instead of worse.
"This post is indicative of just how far out of touch the "Lame-stream" media actually is! Don't they know that Ron Paul's supporters don't use land line phones, and are thus not accurately counted in the polls!
This is yet another example of the elitist media arm of the warfare-welfare state trying in vain to discredit the Ron Paul Revolution! Blah blah blah."
I can't wait till Paul bites the dust...
lol... and you're a journalist lol
I can't wait for you to wake up Friday morning and realize what you're missing, but most likely won't admit even to yourself...
"Oh yeah, well that's just because of (insert half-minded excuse)that he did so well."
BAHAHAHAHA... journalist? analyst? lol
Probably because the generations in Iowa most likely to caucus barely know how to operate their virus ridden, pop-up infested 'that darn computer thingy-ma-jingi.'
As for Ron Paul, he is just a fanatic magnet. I saw a guy in Santa Cruz standing on the side of the street with a sign that said 'Join the Ron Paul Revolution!' He was dressed in the clothes of colonies revolutionary and this was 3 months ago. On the other side of the street was a guy with a sign that said "9/11 was an inside job." Nuff said.