How Much Did Radiohead Make? It Doesn't Matter

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There are plenty of reports trying to guesstimate Radiohead's take from its "In Rainbows" experiment, but all of them are very, very rough at best.

Sites like Frostfirebuzz take a slightly different stat about Radiohead's early "pay what you want" sales--1.2 million vs. the 1.3 million we reported--and multiply it by $8 per sale (the average amount that an Internet poll suggested fans paid for the record). Voila! $10 million in a week.

Wired says "it heard" that people were paying an average of $5, so it gets to $6 million. Our gut is that the number may be even less. We think that even a scientific poll asking people what they spent would be of limited value, and would still skew high (people would be inclined to overestimate their spend, people who downloaded early are likely hardcore Radiohead fans and would be more likely to pay more, the poll was conducted by a U.K.-based Web site, and Brits are much more protective of their bands than Americans would be, etc).

There's also a common misperception that whatever Radiohead made from "In Rainbows", it's more than the band would have received from a big record label, since artists' royalties usually top out around $2 per album. Not true -- a band like Radiohead could have easily received an advance of $5 million -- perhaps more, from a particularly desperate label like EMI.

Radiohead is likely to make a nice sum from "In Rainbows," but the real advantage that its giveaway stunt has conferred is freedom: Radiohead, not a music label, will own the songs it recorded (EMI owns all of Radiohead's earlier work, for instance). Radiohead, not a music label, can decide how to market, promote and distribute the songs -- if it wants to do any of the above. And Radiohead, not a music label, can decide when, where and how it wants to release its next album. Etc.

See Also:
Radiohead: 1.3 million downloads (But big music not dead)
Radiohead's New/Old Business Model: Free Music


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14 Comments

wenzuyan45 (URL) said:
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PhillipMckenna said:
They published the results of that independent survey at the weekend..

http://www.whatpricedidyouchoose.com

The average worked out at £3.88 (about USD$8.00) but some of the comments..the rationale behind why people chose the price they did is very interesting.
J-Ro said:
Frostfire actually copied my article without attribution. I would appreciate if you link directly to the original source at http://www.theseminal.com/2007/10/16/so-one-week-later-is-the-album-dead-yet/

Thanks.
Peter Kafka said:
smartone - record company accounting is indeed mysterious and full of dark corners. but one part is clear: an advance is not a loan -- because if radiohead, or any other band, doesn't generate enough to pay back the advance through their sales, they don't have to pay it back. if advances were loans, the music business (as well as the book business) would be in much better shape.
smartone said:
The Key word that is missing from your article is advance --- the 5 million Radiohead would have gotten from EMI would have been an advance against record sales not a signing bonus but a loan! and to pay it back to label would not include just this record but any records past and present until that 5 million is recouped. and also any video or promotional items will also be charged to the band

in addition that 5 million would have been recoup by each sale of a CD or download which mean 2 bucks deducted from what the band owes

that means the band would have to sell 2.5 million copies before they would have seen one nickel and once again this doesn't include any promotional chargebacks to the band.

So the choice is a 5 million dollar loan from label which would make them in debt for forseeable future or 3- 6 million in their pocket and complete control

Record labels are dead
Hank Williams said:
Its true that for major bands that being able to sell their own music can be a big win.

Most direct to audience and outside the label system strategies have failed at selling as many records as would be sold through the label system. The fact that they sold more records here than their last record is a big deal.

But of course this means nothing about the future of the record business. Once all the big bands leave and go out on their own, will any small bands be able to get to multi-platinum status without a label. I doubt it. More importantly, successful bands make much more money touring than they do selling records. Of course most artists don't make substantial money touring *or* making records but the big guys clean up on tour. This puts them at odds with their labels that don't make any money off of tours. So, generally speaking, CDs offered through the label system- whether pirated or sold - create a platform for artists to make lots of money on tour.

So, coming back to the core point, what does this all mean for the music business.

1. It means there will be fewer big bands, because the engine that creates them is dying. 2. It means that for even more musicians than is already the case, music becomes a hobby instead of a career since it is really hard to sell enough records from your own website to eat, even if you keep all of the money.
3. It means we wont have as many "best of breed" records where great producers, and writers, and orchestras, etc. are brought into a project because individual artists wont be able to afford it, and labels wont be motivated or wont have the resources to do so.

I don't know how this may effect my long term enjoyment of music, but I suspect it will have an impact. The general lowering of margins in any business, particularly when it is *not* made up in volume, cant be a good thing for the quality of the product or the health of the industry. Believe it or not it really does cost money to make great records and to tell people about them.

So the tech industry dancing on the graves of the music industry may be somewhat gratifying to the collective tech ego, but I am confident that less money in the industry will have a negative impact on the form of entertainment I hold most dear. It really is sad.

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