Online Ad Recession Watch: Tracking The Signals

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The thought of a shakeout might actually make the online space stronger by pushing out some of the excess.

If we take a big picture view:

* the overall economy is slowing
* local online ad spend is playing catch up
* the infrastructure in the local online ad space needs to become more sophisticated to warrant continued growth. it is, and will.
* as online becomes more mainstream, it affects more non-digitalites, which requires a learning process. this new crowd affects how online is integrated into mass culture/business/etc. Does your grandma check her email on her iPhone yet?
* ad buyers are still adsorbing/processing how online best fits into their overall ad mix. ROI is on online's side with each iteration of analysis.
* innovation is happening everyday, faster than ever.
* the world is being networked in ways never before possible, which opens new opportunities.
* the need for change is constant with online... we'll adapt quick and be better for it.

Just some thoughts.

Henry

We are agreed on all your counterpoints. Personally I think the housing meltdown will be a long dull throbbing pain in the side of the economy for at least a year or three but the patient is not terminal

Web ad players exposed to this too heavily will suffer, and the economy will be a drag on general web advertising, but the web ad business is very healthy and growing into a strong preferred choice for sizable ad budgets for all kinds of leading global advertisers because it makes sense.

Aleks, different story for newspapers...it's not cyclical, it's death...been that way for two decades. Yesterday's technology.

Has anybody started a new newspaper in this country in the past 25 years since USA Today? There are papers still being published in this country with less circulation than SA Insider and a whole lot different cost structure. Why?

Henry,

Very good observation of the trend. Google's financials are showing these signs - slowing rate of growth in revenue and EPS from the begining of this year:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/09/google-goog-sailing-in-subprime-heavy.html

Henry, I find it entertaining how you interpret the reduction in internet advertising as "cyclic" and the reduction in newspaper advertising as "death of newspapers." :) I mean, yes, you do have a point, but it's a bit too bipolar.

Henry, I love #5 in your last comment, "Many optimists will explain away such signs as company or sector specific." Nice try at the pre-emptive strike, but it’s too bad the data just don’t support your conclusion. Let's just look at the last 4 of your “signals” in turn:

1) Burst Media – do you know anyone who has actually advertised on Burst and had a successful campaign? “Budget constraints” my ear. What do you expect them to say? Our traffic sucks and too many people now know that for us to be successful?

2) Countrywide – didn't they just increase the number of impressions they were buying according to your beloved Nielsen reports?

3) TNS report – overall ad spending slipped! By 0.3%! Ouch. And how much ad share is moving online each year?

4) Online mortgage ads remain strong… Yes, that is correct.

Is there better evidence of a growing problem with online advertising that you just aren’t sharing with us?

Hi Henry,

I think the signals you are seeing is mainly because of the downturn in the auto industry. I agree that this particular category of ad space is the most sought after and that's probably why we are seeing the current dip. I disagree that these are signals for a bigger recession.

I think it is wrong to draw parallels between the housing industry and online advertising industry. Online advertising has been the source of innovations unlike its traditional counterparts. The time to innovate and come up with a new model in this field is relatively easier because of the nature of the industry. There has been more and more emphasis from advertisers to target a specific audience. No wonder, we hear the term behavioral targeting more often than ever before. There will likely be shift towards more click/action based ads and this would compensate the losses if any from CPM ads. This is a rather welcome shift as these ads are high paying anyways.

I also would like to point out the shift in the online advertising towards emerging markets. As I stated, in online industry one can afford to be innovative and that’s why we are seeing a lot of talks about the growing mobile internet advertising industry and more emphasis on rich media/video advertising. The advent of high-speed internet and made advertisers consider that online as an alternative to cable/TV to serve video ads. Big players in the industry have already tools and features to target these emerging markets.

While I think it is impending that the market slowdown will result in the downturn of traditional media like TV, radio and newspapers; online ad industry will continue to eat a considerable share of the pie from these traditional avenues. The inexpensive online ad campaigns and the growing ability to target a specific user base will make this option more viable. In sum, I guess the downturn might actually benefit the online industry by pushing more revenue currently held by the traditional media.

-Prithvi

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. Obviously the situation is not the same as 2000, and the online ad recession (if it happens) should not be as devastating. That said, we can presumably agree that:

1) advertising is a cyclical business.

2) the housing crash is certainly large enough to affect the economy as a whole.

3) If online ads are headed into a recession, we will start seeing small signs and then ultimately big ones (i.e., a billboard won't suddenly start flashing RECESSION, RECESSION...)

4) Weakness will hit the weaker companies ("bottom feeders") first.

5) Many optimists will explain away such signs as company or sector specific.

If we don't agree on those points, I would respectfully suggest that you're dreaming. If we do, and you just don't think the signs we've cited are early warning signs, that's perfectly reasonable. Judging by the ongoing strength in Google and other stocks, most people agree with you.

Henry,

Any similarities between today's internet ad marketplace and 2000 are purely coincidental.

The 2000 bust was caused by the irrational exuberance of a handful of sellers and buyers who inflated the marketplace on wishful thinking, and the demands of their VCs, all willing co-conspirators in a huge pump and dump scheme that eventually drained about 30% out of the ad marketplace and put many of those that played the game out of business.

Today's marketplace has no such froth.

The only question that is at hand is the size of the mortgage advertiser's role.

A few players like Burst and other ad networks and ad servers are relying too heavily on this bottom feeding business and will be hurt by it's collapse which has still much more to play out.

But to extrapolate this into a 2000-like ad meltdown is a stretch.

Now, if you want to talk about a general economy and currency meltdown due to the crunch and the follow on general ad meltdown, be my guest, but the losers there will be the far greater exposed and already declining TV, Radio, and print sellers. The web ad business will look like a nice cozy bomb shelter in that scenario.