Will Mortgage Woes Spread To Online Ads?

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CNN Money highlights a possible booby trap for the online ad market: Troubled CountryWide Financial ranked fourth among top U.S. web advertisers in July; the mortgage company spent $34.8 million, according to Nielsen (PDF). Meanwhile mortgage site Low Rate Source ranked number one, spending $46.3 million. Writer Paul R. LaMonica draws the obvious conclusion -- as the housing market continues to suffer, mortgage companies may pull back their marketing dollars, no matter what shape they're in. He also notes that this isn't the first time this kind of industry-specific worry has come up: Last fall, Yahoo blamed some of its woes on slumping auto and financial services ads, but those problems didn't seem to affect its peers.

But just because it didn't happen last fall doesn't mean it won't happen now, and it's certainly worth contemplating what would happen if a major industry does indeed pull back from online. It's also worth noting that two more of Nielsen's top 10 advertisers can be thought of as mortgage-related: Experian, which came in third with a $43.4 million spend; and Privacy Matters, which ranked 8th and spent $16.9 million. Both companies tend to spend heavily on "check your credit score" ads, and in a market where people are no longer lining up to buy McMansions, they'll presumably be less interested in figuring out whether their scores are good, Alt-A or sub-prime. CNN Money, Nielsen release (PDF).



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tim said:
Nielsen's data claims mortgage advertising rose fourfold in the first half online. Not likely.

Interesting also that Adteractive.com says their whole networlk buys $10M of media per month. Nielsen has them at 5x that. What are the odds someone's dropping half a bil on Net ads and no one has heard of them? Zero is what the odds are. It's bad data

tim said:
Nielsen's data claims mortgage advertising rose fourfold in the first half online. Not likely.

Interesting also that Adteractive.com says their whole networlk buys $10M of media per month. Nielsen has them at 5x that. What are the odds someone's dropping half a bil on Net ads and no one has heard of them? Zero is what the odds are. It's bad data

bobby orbach said:
we are about to begin bubble 2.0 aqnd 2.5 together

Peter Kafka said:
By your logic, I guess that makes two lazy reporters. Or at least one incompetent one, since I checked on NexTag and didn't make the mortgage connection either. But I think the distinction between LowRateSource being a company or a site isn't significant -- it's a large advertiser spending money on mortgage-related ads.
And though the "check your credit score ads" have been around throughout the history of Internet ads, I think they had particular import during the housing boom. Love to hear evidence one way or the other.

Greg said:
Man, that CNNMoney reporter was lazy. Otherwise he'd have noted that LowRateSource isn't a company, it's a site owned by lead-gen company Adteractive, and that the bulk of #2 NexTag's advertising is also lead-gen for mortgages.

I think the success of the 'check your credit score' ads' is more motivated by fear of identity theft, though, and I don't think that's going away.

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